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The 2026 Race Index & Ratings Board

Every Senate, House and Governor race, scored two ways: Attention — how loud a race is right now across news, Wikipedia and Bluesky — and Vector — which way it leans and how firmly. Neither is a poll or a forecast. How they work →

579 races tracked575 with a Vector direction0 with a verified pollUpdated 2026-09-30 UTC
Balance of power

U.S. House: who holds it now

214 Democratic1 independent2 vacant218 RepublicanControl takes 218. A majority of all 435 seats.

435 seats on the 2026 ballot

Make your map

Starting colors are each race's Vugol Vector direction, or its verified polling average where one exists. Experimental, not a forecast; toss-ups start blank. Click a race to switch it: Democrat → Republican → undecided.

D 21837 undecidedR 180On the experimental Vector starting map: Democrats control.

Current seats as of 2026-09-30. Sources: Office of the Clerk: party breakdown · Office of the Clerk: vacancies

The ratings board

House races, from safe Democratic to safe Republican

D Anchored149
  1. TX-37Attention 83
  2. IL-09Attention 70
  3. NY-12Attention 68
  4. CT-04Attention 67
  5. IL-03Attention 65
  6. TN-09Attention 62
  7. MI-12Attention 62
  8. NY-15Attention 62
  9. MD-08Attention 61
  10. MI-13Attention 60
+139 more
D Held42
  1. MI-03Attention 68
  2. FL-22Attention 58
  3. NY-04Attention 58
  4. IL-14Attention 57
  5. FL-14Attention 55
  6. GA-02Attention 53
  7. NV-04Attention 52
  8. PA-12Attention 51
  9. CA-21Attention 51
  10. OH-01Attention 50
+32 more
D Tilting29
  1. NV-01Attention 75
  2. NY-03Attention 67
  3. TX-34Attention 67
  4. NY-19Attention 66
  5. FL-25Attention 61
  6. CA-41Attention 59
  7. OR-05Attention 56
  8. FL-20Attention 56
  9. NH-02Attention 56
  10. VA-07Attention 55
+19 more
Toss-up37
  1. IA-03Attention 63
  2. PA-08Attention 63
  3. FL-13Attention 62
  4. CA-22Attention 56
  5. VA-02Attention 55
  6. AZ-02Attention 52
  7. MO-02Attention 52
  8. IA-01Attention 51
  9. WI-01Attention 51
  10. CA-40Attention 50
+27 more
R Tilting51
  1. FL-16Attention 65
  2. FL-27Attention 55
  3. KS-02Attention 53
  4. FL-03Attention 52
  5. WA-05Attention 51
  6. OH-07Attention 50
  7. SC-02Attention 49
  8. NC-05Attention 49
  9. OK-05Attention 49
  10. WI-06Attention 48
+41 more
R Held57
  1. MI-02Attention 63
  2. GA-14Attention 60
  3. OH-14Attention 58
  4. TX-10Attention 58
  5. CA-01Attention 56
  6. NY-11Attention 54
  7. TX-21Attention 52
  8. KS-04Attention 51
  9. UT-01Attention 50
  10. NY-24Attention 49
+47 more
R Anchored77
  1. FL-19Attention 71
  2. MO-08Attention 62
  3. FL-26Attention 60
  4. NE-03Attention 60
  5. FL-12Attention 58
  6. IN-09Attention 56
  7. IL-15Attention 53
  8. FL-06Attention 52
  9. ND-ALAttention 51
  10. PA-15Attention 50
+67 more

Each race sits in its column by the polling average where one exists, Vugol Vector otherwise; loudest first. Click a column head to list just those races below.

Loudest first

Contested races & battlegrounds

40 of 88
D · Anchored149D · Held42D · Tilting29Toss-up37R · Tilting51R · Held57R · Anchored77Unrated0✓ Verified poll on fileClear filters
FLU.S. HouseR · TiltingFlorida's 16th DistrictFL-16 · FloridaModel ratingNews attention 65/100Details → · updated 2026-09-30 Reader poll
IAU.S. HouseToss-upIowa's 3rd DistrictIA-03 · IowaModel ratingNews attention 63/100Details → · updated 2026-09-30 Reader poll
PAU.S. HouseToss-upPennsylvania's 8th DistrictPA-08 · PennsylvaniaModel ratingNews attention 63/100Details → · updated 2026-09-30 Reader poll
FLU.S. HouseToss-upFlorida's 13th DistrictFL-13 · FloridaModel ratingNews attention 62/100Details → · updated 2026-09-30 Reader poll
CAU.S. HouseToss-upCalifornia's 22nd DistrictCA-22 · CaliforniaModel ratingNews attention 56/100Details → · updated 2026-09-30 Reader poll
VAU.S. HouseToss-upVirginia's 2nd DistrictVA-02 · VirginiaModel ratingNews attention 55/100Details → · updated 2026-09-30 Reader poll
FLU.S. HouseR · TiltingFlorida's 27th DistrictFL-27 · FloridaModel ratingNews attention 55/100Details → · updated 2026-09-30 Reader poll
KSU.S. HouseR · TiltingKansas's 2nd DistrictKS-02 · KansasModel ratingNews attention 53/100Details → · updated 2026-09-30 Reader poll
AZU.S. HouseToss-upArizona's 2nd DistrictAZ-02 · ArizonaModel ratingNews attention 52/100Details → · updated 2026-09-30 Reader poll
MOU.S. HouseToss-upMissouri's 2nd DistrictMO-02 · MissouriModel ratingNews attention 52/100Details → · updated 2026-09-30 Reader poll
FLU.S. HouseR · TiltingFlorida's 3rd DistrictFL-03 · FloridaModel ratingNews attention 52/100Details → · updated 2026-09-30 Reader poll
WAU.S. HouseR · TiltingWashington's 5th DistrictWA-05 · WashingtonModel ratingNews attention 51/100Details → · updated 2026-09-30 Reader poll
IAU.S. HouseToss-upIowa's 1st DistrictIA-01 · IowaModel ratingNews attention 51/100Details → · updated 2026-09-30 Reader poll
WIU.S. HouseToss-upWisconsin's 1st DistrictWI-01 · WisconsinModel ratingNews attention 51/100Details → · updated 2026-09-30 Reader poll
CAU.S. HouseToss-upCalifornia's 40th DistrictCA-40 · CaliforniaModel ratingNews attention 50/100Details → · updated 2026-09-30 Reader poll
OHU.S. HouseR · TiltingOhio's 7th DistrictOH-07 · OhioModel ratingNews attention 50/100Details → · updated 2026-09-30 Reader poll
SCU.S. HouseR · TiltingSouth Carolina's 2nd DistrictSC-02 · South CarolinaModel ratingNews attention 49/100Details → · updated 2026-09-30 Reader poll
NCU.S. HouseR · TiltingNorth Carolina's 5th DistrictNC-05 · North CarolinaModel ratingNews attention 49/100Details → · updated 2026-09-30 Reader poll
OKU.S. HouseR · TiltingOklahoma's 5th DistrictOK-05 · OklahomaModel ratingNews attention 49/100Details → · updated 2026-09-30 Reader poll
AZU.S. HouseToss-upArizona's 8th DistrictAZ-08 · ArizonaModel ratingNews attention 48/100Details → · updated 2026-09-30 Reader poll
VAU.S. HouseToss-upVirginia's 1st DistrictVA-01 · VirginiaModel ratingNews attention 48/100Details → · updated 2026-09-30 Reader poll
WIU.S. HouseR · TiltingWisconsin's 6th DistrictWI-06 · WisconsinModel ratingNews attention 48/100Details → · updated 2026-09-30 Reader poll
AZU.S. HouseToss-upArizona's 6th DistrictAZ-06 · ArizonaModel ratingNews attention 48/100Details → · updated 2026-09-30 Reader poll
MDU.S. HouseR · TiltingMaryland's 1st DistrictMD-01 · MarylandModel ratingNews attention 48/100Details → · updated 2026-09-30 Reader poll
AZU.S. HouseR · TiltingArizona's 5th DistrictAZ-05 · ArizonaModel ratingNews attention 47/100Details → · updated 2026-09-30 Reader poll
MPU.S. HouseR · TiltingMP's 1st DistrictMP-01 · MPModel ratingNews attention 47/100Details → · updated 2026-09-30 Reader poll
ARU.S. HouseR · TiltingArkansas's 2nd DistrictAR-02 · ArkansasModel ratingNews attention 45/100Details → · updated 2026-09-30 Reader poll
GUU.S. HouseR · TiltingGU At-Large House seatGU-AL · GUModel ratingNews attention 42/100Details → · updated 2026-09-30 Reader poll
NCU.S. HouseToss-upNorth Carolina's 11th DistrictNC-11 · North CarolinaModel ratingNews attention 42/100Details → · updated 2026-09-30 Reader poll
MIU.S. HouseToss-upMichigan's 10th DistrictMI-10 · MichiganModel ratingNews attention 42/100Details → · updated 2026-09-30 Reader poll
NJU.S. HouseToss-upNew Jersey's 7th DistrictNJ-07 · New JerseyModel ratingNews attention 42/100Details → · updated 2026-09-30 Reader poll
OHU.S. HouseToss-upOhio's 15th DistrictOH-15 · OhioModel ratingNews attention 41/100Details → · updated 2026-09-30 Reader poll
COU.S. HouseToss-upColorado's 8th DistrictCO-08 · ColoradoModel ratingNews attention 41/100Details → · updated 2026-09-30 Reader poll
TXU.S. HouseToss-upTexas's 15th DistrictTX-15 · TexasModel ratingNews attention 40/100Details → · updated 2026-09-30 Reader poll
TNU.S. HouseR · TiltingTennessee's 7th DistrictTN-07 · TennesseeModel ratingNews attention 40/100Details → · updated 2026-09-30 Reader poll
INU.S. HouseR · TiltingIndiana's 2nd DistrictIN-02 · IndianaModel ratingNews attention 39/100Details → · updated 2026-09-30 Reader poll
CAU.S. HouseR · TiltingCalifornia's 48th DistrictCA-48 · CaliforniaModel ratingNews attention 38/100Details → · updated 2026-09-30 Reader poll
NYU.S. HouseToss-upNew York's 17th DistrictNY-17 · New YorkModel ratingNews attention 37/100Details → · updated 2026-09-30 Reader poll
WIU.S. HouseR · TiltingWisconsin's 8th DistrictWI-08 · WisconsinModel ratingNews attention 35/100Details → · updated 2026-09-30 Reader poll
NCU.S. HouseR · TiltingNorth Carolina's 8th DistrictNC-08 · North CarolinaModel ratingNews attention 34/100Details → · updated 2026-09-30 Reader poll

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