Home / Races / Iowa / U.S. House — IA-03

IA2026

U.S. House — IA-03 · Iowa · 2026

Name: U.S. House — IA-03, Iowa — Vugol Me Attention & Vector
Creator: Vugol Me
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

General election · 2 on the certified November ballot · Incumbent running

Community poll

Model rating Leans Democratic (Open) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.

1 poll on file from pollsters we have not verified yet — shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 5 of 7, updated today. Sources · What is validated

News attention 63/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 4 days ago. How it works

On the November ballot (2)

Certified by the state on 2026-08-19, checked 2026-09-29.

Zach NunnU.S. House — IA-03 · FEC H2IA03119Republican IncumbentOn the ballotFEC raised$4.9M Sarah Trone GarriottU.S. House — IA-03 · FEC H6IA03268DemocraticOn the ballotFEC raised$5.3M

Not on the certified ballot (1)

Filed or ran for this seat, but not on the state’s certified list for November.

Jennifer KonfrstU.S. House — IA-03 · FEC H6IA03276DemocraticNot on the November ballotFEC raised$608K

Official source: https://sos.iowa.gov/sites/default/files/2026-08/2026%20General%20-%20Candidate%20List%20Database%20-%20All%20Elections_1.pdf

Latest verified field polling

Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.

none yet

No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.

Polling average

no verified inputs yet

1 poll on file for this race, all from quarantined (U-tier) pollsters — visible below, not yet averaged.

Campaign money (FEC)

Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Through
Zach Nunn Republican	$4,869,249	$1,353,713	$3,568,369	2026-06-30
Jennifer Konfrst Democratic	$607,559	$521,787	$85,772	2026-06-30
Sarah Trone Garriott Democratic	$5,293,773	$1,434,089	$3,859,683	2026-06-30

Results

Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.

Democratic primary

Sarah Trone Garriott won	54,662	100.0%

Republican primary

Zach Nunn (incumbent) won	48,309	100.0%

Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-30 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0

Key dates

Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.

2026-06-02 — Primary election: U.S. House
2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. House

Source: FEC election dates (public domain).

Primary and hypothetical polls (3)

Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.

Hypothetical matchup · Ragnar Research Partners (partisan) · 2026-03-12–2026-03-14 · n=400 · Generic Republican 44%, Generic Democrat 43% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Change Research (partisan) · 2025-10-23–2025-10-27 · n=638 · Generic Democrat 45%, Generic Republican 42% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2025-09-17–2025-09-18 · n=717 · Jennifer Konfrst (D) 44%, Zach Nunn (R) 44% · release

In the news

The 10 most vulnerable House members just over a month before Election DayRoll Call · Sep 30
Trump announces plans for largest steel plant in U.S. history to be built in IowaCBS News · Sep 28
Republicans dump cash into red states as they try to hold the line against Democrats in the midtermsABC News · Sep 23

Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news

Signals (experimental)

Attention 63 Vector D · Open

Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)

Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly

pulse-1.0.0

63OUT OF 100Moderate attention

Attention percentile86th

7-day momentum1 / 100

Source breadth100% of tracked

Vugol Me Vector (experimental)

Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: medium

vector-1.1.0

Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean

AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored

Completeness5 of 7 inputs (national, prior, incumbent, money, pulse) · missing: pres, poll

Evidenceno verified poll · fundamentals only

Freshnessoldest input 2026-09-26 (4 days ago)

Vector component signals · estimated margin D +1.9Fundraising velocity (FEC)D +1.1Last result for this seat (2024 R +3.8, national swing D +10.5)D +6.7Attention shareR +2.0IncumbencyR +6.0National environment: our generic-ballot average is D +7.9 (27 pollsters, as of 2026-09-30), against the 2024 national House vote of R +2.6. The seat's last result and presidential lean move by that swing; polls, incumbency and money do not. How.

Daily precision telemetry

Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans

Sources

Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 f8eb440548f5 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).

Band: Toss-up (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.