Home / Races / Texas / U.S. House — TX-21

TX2026

U.S. House — TX-21 · Texas · 2026

Name: U.S. House — TX-21, Texas — Vugol Me Attention & Vector
Creator: Vugol Me
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

General election · 2 on the certified November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)

Community poll

Model rating Leans Republican (Held) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.

No polls on file for this race. Model inputs: 3 of 7, updated today. Sources · What is validated

News attention 52/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 4 days ago. How it works

On the November ballot (2)

Certified by the state on 2026-08-28, checked 2026-09-30.

Kristin A HookU.S. House — TX-21 · FEC H4TX21108DemocraticOn the ballotFEC raised$244K Mark Charles TeixeiraU.S. House — TX-21 · FEC H6TX21301RepublicanOn the ballotFEC raised$3.9M

Not on the certified ballot (9)

Filed or ran for this seat, but not on the state’s certified list for November.

Daniel BettsU.S. House — TX-21 · FEC H6TX21285RepublicanLost primaryFEC raised$177K Ezekiel EnriquezU.S. House — TX-21 · FEC H6TX23216RepublicanNot on the November ballotFEC raised$115K Gary Frank TaylorU.S. House — TX-21 · FEC H6TX21251DemocraticLost primaryFEC raised$17K James E Trainor IIIU.S. House — TX-21 · FEC H6TX21376RepublicanNot on the November ballotFEC raised$152K Jason CahillU.S. House — TX-21 · FEC H6TX21350RepublicanLost primaryFEC raised$383K Mike WheelerU.S. House — TX-21 · FEC H6TX21319RepublicanLost primaryFEC raised$344K Paul RojasU.S. House — TX-21 · FEC H6TX21384RepublicanLost primaryFEC raised$165K Regina VanburgU.S. House — TX-21 · FEC H6TX21269DemocraticLost primaryFEC raised$14K Weston Charles MartinezU.S. House — TX-21 · FEC H6TX21426RepublicanLost primaryFEC raised$26K

Official source: https://www.sos.texas.gov/elections/forms/2026-ballot-cert.pdf

Latest verified field polling

Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.

none yet

No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.

Polling average

no polls yet

No polls on file for this race yet. See latest polls across every race.

Campaign money (FEC)

Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Through
Daniel Betts Republican	$177,457	$177,151	$306	2026-06-30
Ezekiel Enriquez Republican	$114,590	$110,532	$0	2026-08-25
Gary Frank Taylor Democratic	$16,737	$16,646	$91	2026-04-03
James E Trainor III Republican	$151,643	$151,579	$64	2026-06-30
Jason Cahill Republican	$382,589	$382,589	$0	2026-06-30
Kristin A Hook Democratic	$243,839	$144,128	$104,069	2026-06-30
Mark Charles Teixeira Republican	$3,922,216	$3,540,015	$382,201	2026-06-30
Mike Wheeler Republican	$344,226	$344,226	$0	2026-06-30
Paul Rojas Republican	$165,026	$8,165	$156,862	2026-02-11
Regina Vanburg Democratic	$13,892	$11,861	$1,869	2026-03-31
Weston Charles Martinez Republican	$26,384	$26,384	$0	2026-04-12

Results

Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.

Democratic primary

Kristin Hook won	39,779	60.1%
Regina Vanburg	18,614	28.1%
Gary Taylor	7,847	11.8%

Republican primary

Mark Teixeira won	58,180	60.9%
Jason Cahill	9,043	9.5%
Trey Trainor	8,497	8.9%
Michael Wheeler	6,593	6.9%
Weston Martinez	2,320	2.4%
Kyle Sinclair (withdrawn)	1,947	2.0%
Daniel Betts	1,941	2.0%
Peggy Wardlaw	1,872	2.0%
Heather Tessmer	1,575	1.7%
Paul Rojas	1,559	1.6%
Zeke Enriquez	1,302	1.4%
Jacques DuBose	673	0.7%

Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-29 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0

Key dates

Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.

2026-03-03 — Primary election: U.S. House
2026-04-11 — Convention: U.S. House — LIB
2026-05-26 — Runoff: U.S. House
2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. House

Source: FEC election dates (public domain).

Signals (experimental)

Attention 52 Vector R · Held

Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)

Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly

pulse-1.0.0

52OUT OF 100Moderate attention

Attention percentile61th

7-day momentum49 / 100

Source breadth33% of tracked

Vugol Me Vector (experimental)

Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: medium

vector-1.1.0

Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean

AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored

Completeness3 of 7 inputs (national, prior, money) · missing: pres, incumbent, pulse, poll

Evidenceno verified poll · fundamentals only

Freshnessoldest input 2026-09-26 (4 days ago)

Vector component signals · estimated margin R +14.1Fundraising velocity (FEC)R +8.0Last result for this seat (2024 R +26.3, national swing D +10.5)R +15.8National environment: our generic-ballot average is D +7.9 (27 pollsters, as of 2026-09-30), against the 2024 national House vote of R +2.6. The seat's last result and presidential lean move by that swing; polls, incumbency and money do not. How.

Daily precision telemetry

Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans

Sources

Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 dda70c13c37b · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).

Band: R · Held (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.