Who is ahead in the 2026 Virginia's 7th District race?

Name: U.S. House - VA-07, Virginia, Vugol Vector & Vugol Attention
Creator: Vugol Me
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Eugene S. Vindman (D) won the VA-07 race with 60.1% of the vote. No verified poll average yet. The Vugol Vector model rates it Tilting (D), a snapshot of today, not a probability. Updated 2026-11-14.

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VA2026

U.S. House - VA-07 · Virginia · 2026

General election · 6 on the certified November ballot · Incumbent running

VecD 44 · TiltingTenD 93%Att35

TV graphic Vugol race poll

Result

Called

Eugene S. Vindman (D) won this race with 60.1% of the vote, 22.7 points ahead.

Eugene S. VindmanDemocraticWinner60.1%196,096 votes
Doug A. OllivantRepublican37.5%122,199 votes
Alaha AhrarIndependent1.0%3,196 votes
Taner E. Demirci LopezLibertarian0.8%2,734 votes
Randall A. TerryIndependent0.4%1,232 votes
Joshua E. ErtleIndependent0.3%811 votes

Margin: 73,897 votes (22.7 points)
Reporting: 100% of the count in
Called: First seen here, Nov 4, 1:18 AM ET
Last updated: Nov 12, 5:40 PM ET
Source: State results feed

Called it: hit Our locked call before polls closed was D; the winner is D. See every locked call

Unofficial until the state certifies the result.

Before the election

Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.

Certified ballotU.S. House - VA-07 · Virginia

Yevgeny 'Eugene' Vindman

DIncumbent

DEM

Douglas Ollivant

REP

No verified poll yet · Vugol Vector: D Tilting

D · TiltingVugol Vector model

Model rating Leans Democratic (Tilting) on the Vugol Vector model, a snapshot of today, not a probability.

No polls on file for this race. Model inputs: 4 of 7, updated today. Page updated 2026-11-14. Sources · What is validated

ExperimentalNews attention 35/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated yesterday. How it works

On the Virginia ballot, Nov 3, 2026 Member, House of Representatives, 7th District, 6 names on the official list. Election Day has passed; see the ballot as it was.Voting in Virginia? Check your registration, get a mail ballot, find your polling place.

On the November ballot (6)

Certified by the state, checked 2026-11-13.

Yevgeny 'Eugene' VindmanU.S. House - VA-07 · FEC H4VA07234Democratic IncumbentOn the ballotFEC raised$16.3M Alaha AhrarU.S. House - VA-07 · FEC H6VA07353 · campaign site on fileIndependentOn the ballotFEC raised$29K Douglas OllivantU.S. House - VA-07 · FEC H6VA07205RepublicanOn the ballotFEC raised$389K Joshua E. ErtleU.S. House - VA-07 · campaign site on fileIndependentOn the ballotFEC raisednot on file Randall TerryU.S. House - VA-07 · FEC H6VA07312IndependentOn the ballotFEC raised$74K Taner E. Demirci LopezU.S. House - VA-07 · campaign site on fileLibertarianOn the ballotFEC raisednot on file

Not on the certified ballot (12)

Filed or ran for this seat, but not on the state’s certified list for November.

Official source: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/casting-a-ballot/candidate-list/november-3-2026-gen-elect-federal-offices/

Latest verified field polling

Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.

none yet

No verified poll has been published for this race. The Vugol Vector call from our model is below, it is not a poll.

Polling average

no polls yet

No polls on file for this race yet. See latest polls across every race.

Campaign money (FEC)

Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Through
Yevgeny 'Eugene' Vindman Democratic	$16,339,334	$11,248,672	$5,225,595	2026-10-14
Adele McClure Democratic	$84,810	$79,162	$5,648	2026-09-30
Alaha Ahrar Independent	$28,923	$11,167	$3,660	2026-10-14
Dan Helmer Democratic	$851,975	$588,572	$263,403	2026-09-30
Darius Mayfield Republican	$34,760	$34,097	$663	2026-09-30
Dorothy McAuliffe Democratic	$1,256,357	$1,247,019	$9,338	2026-09-30
Douglas Ollivant Republican	$389,127	$279,911	$109,216	2026-10-14
Elizabeth Guzman Democratic	$72,225	$59,107	$13,118	2026-06-30
John Gray Republican	$237,671	$237,671	$0	2026-08-31
Joseph Patrick Cooney Democratic	$641,665	$498,253	$143,411	2026-10-14
Joseph Schiarizzi Democratic	$203,939	$203,939	$0	2026-06-30
Philip A. Harding Republican	$141,406	$130,099	$11,306	2026-09-30
Randall Terry Independent	$74,221	$58,842	$15,379	2026-10-14
Saddam Salim Democratic	$25,057	$25,057	$0	2026-06-11
Tara Anne Durant Republican	$392,489	$297,615	$94,874	2026-09-30
Waverly E. Washington Republican	$51,974	$51,974	$0	2026-09-30

Ad spending (FEC)

What each campaign reported paying for ads, and what outside groups (super PACs, PACs and parties) reported spending for and against each candidate. Federal Election Commission filings, public domain.

Candidate	Campaign's own ads	Outside groups for	Outside groups against
Yevgeny 'Eugene' Vindman Democratic	$3M+ $40K mail · through 2026-07-15	$365K$351K ads · 5 groups	$52K$6,318 ads · 1 group
Douglas Ollivant Republican	$26K+ $24K mail · through 2026-07-15	$244K$32K ads · 2 groups	$13K$0 ads · 1 group
Joseph Patrick Cooney Democratic	$152K+ $6,806 mail · through 2026-10-05	none reported	none reported
Dan Helmer Democratic	$99K+ $11K mail · through 2026-06-30	none reported	none reported
Dorothy McAuliffe Democratic	$18K+ $19K mail · through 2026-06-30	none reported	none reported
Adele McClure Democratic	$6,054+ $310 mail · through 2026-09-30	none reported	none reported

Biggest outside spenders

Yevgeny 'Eugene' Vindman. For: VoteVets $190K, LCV Victory Fund $91K, AB PAC $60K. Against: THE CONSERVATIVE CAUCUS DBA AMERICANS FOR CONSTITUTIONAL LIBERTY $52K
Douglas Ollivant. For: AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION PAC $212K, THE CONSERVATIVE CAUCUS DBA AMERICANS FOR CONSTITUTIONAL LIBERTY $32K. Against: Building Together $13K

Outside groups: 24- and 48-hour independent expenditure reports for the 2026 primary and general, through 2026-11-01, each expenditure counted once after amendments; "ads" is TV, radio, digital and other media, and the rest is mail, phones, canvassing and similar. Campaign's own ads: TV, radio, digital, other media and ad production in the campaign committee's itemized payments, as the campaign described them, from the reports the FEC has processed (latest through 2026-10-05); newer reports appear as the FEC processes them. These are amounts committees reported paying, not airtime tracked by ad-monitoring firms, so very recent buys and future reservations may not show yet. Parser fec-ad-spend-1.0.0.

Results

Vote counts from the state’s own results feed, read every minute while votes are counted. Counts change until the state certifies.

general election · state results feed, unofficial

Eugene S. Vindman won	196,096	60.1%
Doug A. Ollivant	122,199	37.5%
Alaha Ahrar	3,196	1.0%
Taner E. Demirci Lopez	2,734	0.8%
Randall A. Terry	1,232	0.4%
Joshua E. Ertle	811	0.3%

Eugene S. Vindman leads by 73,897 votes. 100% of reporting units counted.

Republican primary

Doug Ollivant won	13,594	56.6%
Phillip Harding	7,356	30.6%
Ricky Smithers	3,076	12.8%

Source: the state's official results feed, retrieved 2026-11-12 · parser state-feed-1.0.0+all-reporting/unassailable-1.0.0

Key dates

Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.

2026-08-04, Primary election: U.S. House
2026-11-03, General election: U.S. House

Source: FEC election dates (public domain).

Primary and hypothetical polls (1)

Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to that article revision and, where we know it, to the pollster's own site.

Democratic primary · Change Research (partisan) · 2026-02-24–2026-02-26 · n=360 · Elizabeth Guzmán (D) 14%,J.P. Cooney (D) 5%,Saddam Salim (D) 5%,Adele McClure (D) 4%,Dan Helmer (D) 4%,Alfonso Lopez 4% · pollster's site · release

Lab

Vugol Vector & Vugol Attention

Vugol Attention 35 Vugol Vector D · Tilting

Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.

Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)

Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly

attention-1.0.0

35OUT OF 100Low attention

Vugol Attention percentile48th

7-day momentum3 / 100

Source breadth50% of tracked

Vugol Vector

Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: medium

vector-1.1.0

Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean

AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored

Completeness4 of 7 inputs (national, prior, incumbent, money) · missing: pres, pulse, poll

Evidenceno audit release · fundamentals only

Freshnessoldest input 2026-11-13 (yesterday)

The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.

Vugol Tensor

How far this call can miss · a range, not a prediction · no verified poll here, so the range is wider and untested

tensor-1.0.0

Centre D+10.9. Four times in five the result lands between D+20.3 and D+1.5; nine in ten between D+23.0 and R+1.2. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: 93%.

Polls have missed by about four points in a typical race and they miss together. How Tensor works →

Desk data: daily telemetry

Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans

Sources

Roster, official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
Vugol Attention inputs, Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
Polls and results, individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
Models attention-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 ef039055a8f4 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).

Vugol Vector band: D · Tilting. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.

The four Vugol signals, side by side

They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.

Vugol Vector: Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
Vugol Tensor: How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
Vugol Attention: How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
Vugol Pulse: Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.