Home / Races / Virginia / U.S. House — VA-07

VA2026

U.S. House — VA-07 · Virginia · 2026

Name: U.S. House — VA-07, Virginia — Vugol Me Attention & Vector
Creator: Vugol Me
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

General election · 6 on the November ballot · Incumbent running

Community poll

Model rating Leans Democratic (Tilting) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.

No polls on file for this race. Model inputs: 5 of 7, updated yesterday. Sources · What is validated

News attention 55/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated yesterday. How it works

On the November ballot (2)

From reported primary results, checked 2026-09-29. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.

Yevgeny 'Eugene' VindmanU.S. House — VA-07 · FEC H4VA07234Democratic IncumbentOn the ballotFEC raised$12.4M Douglas OllivantU.S. House — VA-07 · FEC H6VA07205RepublicanOn the ballotFEC raised$251K

Ran in the primary (1)

Lost a primary or runoff for this seat — not on the November ballot.

Philip A. HardingU.S. House — VA-07 · FEC H6VA07320RepublicanLost primaryFEC raised$126K

Other filers (11)

Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.

Ballot source: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Virginia&oldid=1377418102

Latest verified field polling

Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.

none yet

No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.

Polling average

no polls yet

No polls on file for this race yet. See latest polls across every race.

Campaign money (FEC)

Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Through
Yevgeny 'Eugene' Vindman Democratic	$12,355,664	$5,917,504	$6,573,093	2026-07-15
Adele McClure Democratic	$80,032	$74,320	$5,712	2026-06-30
Dan Helmer Democratic	$849,251	$513,644	$335,607	2026-06-30
Darius Mayfield Republican	$34,760	$34,097	$663	2026-07-15
Dorothy McAuliffe Democratic	$1,256,357	$558,170	$698,187	2026-06-30
Douglas Ollivant Republican	$251,134	$185,334	$65,801	2026-07-15
Elizabeth Guzman Democratic	$72,225	$59,107	$13,118	2026-06-30
John Gray Republican	$237,671	$237,671	$0	2026-08-31
Joseph Patrick Cooney Democratic	$641,665	$459,208	$182,456	2026-07-15
Joseph Schiarizzi Democratic	$203,939	$203,939	$0	2026-06-30
Philip A. Harding Republican	$125,916	$38,074	$87,842	2026-07-15
Saddam Salim Democratic	$25,057	$25,057	$0	2026-06-11
Tara Anne Durant Republican	$392,454	$290,116	$102,338	2026-06-30
Waverly E. Washington Republican	$51,994	$51,974	$20	2026-07-15

Results

Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.

Republican primary

Doug Ollivant won	13,594	56.6%
Phillip Harding	7,356	30.6%
Ricky Smithers	3,076	12.8%

Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-29 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0

Key dates

Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.

2026-08-04 — Primary election: U.S. House
2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. House

Source: FEC election dates (public domain).

Primary and hypothetical polls (1)

Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.

Democratic primary · Change Research (partisan) · 2026-02-24–2026-02-26 · n=360 · Elizabeth Guzmán (D) 14%, J.P. Cooney (D) 5%, Saddam Salim (D) 5%, Adele McClure (D) 4%, Dan Helmer (D) 4%, Alfonso Lopez 4% · release

Signals (experimental)

Attention 55 Vector D · Tilting

Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)

Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly

pulse-1.0.0

55OUT OF 100Moderate attention

Attention percentile70th

7-day momentum0 / 100

Source breadth100% of tracked

Vugol Me Vector (experimental)

Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: medium

vector-1.1.0

Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean

AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored

Completeness5 of 7 inputs (national, prior, incumbent, money, pulse) · missing: pres, poll

Evidenceno verified poll · fundamentals only

Freshnessoldest input 2026-09-29 (yesterday)

Vector component signals · estimated margin D +9.2Fundraising velocity (FEC)D +8.0Last result for this seat (2024 D +2.6, national swing D +10.5)D +13.2Attention shareD +1.1IncumbencyD +6.0National environment: our generic-ballot average is D +7.9 (27 pollsters, as of 2026-09-29), against the 2024 national House vote of R +2.6. The seat's last result and presidential lean move by that swing; polls, incumbency and money do not. How.

Daily precision telemetry

Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans

Sources

Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 c267bf6f0752 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).

Band: D · Tilting (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.