U.S. House — NC-11 · North Carolina · 2026
General election · 3 on the certified November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)
Model rating Leans Republican (Open) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.
No polls on file for this race. Model inputs: 5 of 7, updated today. Sources · What is validated
News attention 42/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 2 days ago. How it works
On the November ballot (1)
Certified by the state, checked 2026-09-29.
Also on the certified ballot: Jennifer Capps Balkcom (Republican), Travis Groo (Libertarian).
Not on the certified ballot (8)
Filed or ran for this seat, but not on the state’s certified list for November.
Official source: https://dl.ncsbe.gov/Elections/2026/Candidate%20Filing/Candidate_Listing_2026.csv
Latest verified field polling
Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.
No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.
Polling average
No polls on file for this race yet. See latest polls across every race.
Campaign money (FEC)
Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuck Edwards | $939,985 | $563,005 | $485,744 | 2026-06-30 |
| Adam R. Smith | $67,449 | $65,946 | $1,503 | 2026-03-31 |
| Christopher John Harjes | $73,748 | $73,748 | $0 | 2026-01-21 |
| Jacob Lawrence | $42,727 | $41,791 | $936 | 2026-01-31 |
| Jamie Ager | $3,052,354 | $867,576 | $2,184,778 | 2026-06-30 |
| Morris D. Davis | $111,369 | $111,369 | $0 | 2025-09-30 |
| Paul Maddox | $0 | $0 | $0 | 2026-09-29 |
| Richard Hudspeth | $217,241 | $217,241 | $0 | 2026-06-05 |
| Zelda Briarwood | $39,219 | $39,502 | $17 | 2026-03-31 |
Results
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.
Democratic primary
| Jamie Ager won | 49,193 | 64.7% |
| Richard Hudspeth | 12,063 | 15.9% |
| Zelda Briarwood | 9,893 | 13.0% |
| Paul Maddox | 3,857 | 5.1% |
| Lee Whipple | 1,078 | 1.4% |
Republican primary
| Chuck Edwards (incumbent) won | 47,795 | 70.1% |
| Adam Smith | 20,389 | 29.9% |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-29 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-03-03 — Primary election: U.S. House
- 2026-05-12 — Runoff: U.S. House
- 2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. House
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (1)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.
- Hypothetical matchup · Impact Research (partisan) · 2025-12-15–2025-12-17 · n=500 · Jamie Ager (D) 45%, Chuck Edwards (R) 44% · release
Signals (experimental)
Attention 42 Vector R · Open
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
Vugol Me Vector (experimental)
Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: medium
Daily precision telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans
Sources
- Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 9b81d1fe19f0 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Band: Toss-up (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.