Hill +4Within margin of error
- Chris Jones Democratic: 48%
- James French Hill Republican: 52%
AR2026
U.S. House - AR-02 · Arkansas · 2026
General election · 2 on the November ballot · Incumbent running
Result
CalledFrench Hill (R) won this race with 50.9% of the vote, 1.7 points ahead.
- French HillRepublicanWinner50.9%127,452 votes
- Chris JonesDemocratic49.1%123,096 votes
- Margin
- 4,356 votes (1.7 points)
- Called
- Called by Wikipedia editors, Nov 5, 2:39 PM ET (revision)
- Last updated
- Nov 11, 1:34 PM ET
Called it: hit Our locked call before polls closed was R; the winner is R. See every locked call
Unofficial until the state certifies the result.
Before the election
Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.
Race poll averageU.S. House - AR-02 · Arkansas
Chris Jones
48%
James French Hill
52%
Verified poll average · 1 poll · newest poll ended 2026-10-14
Verified polls Hill leads Jones by 4.0 points in our average of verified polls.
1 verified poll averaged, newest ended 2026-10-14. Page updated 2026-11-15. Sources · What is validated
ExperimentalNews attention 4/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 7 days ago. How it works
On the November ballot (2)
From reported primary results, checked 2026-11-14. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.
Ran in the primary (2)
Lost a primary or runoff for this seat, not on the November ballot.
Hill +4
- Chris Jones Democratic: 48%
- James French Hill Republican: Incumbent52%
Latest verified field polling
Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.
Cite / verify
Cite thishttps://vugol.me/races/US-AR-02
Sourcehttps://pollvault.substack.com/p/levee-math
Retrieved2026-11-15
Polling average Updates as polls arrive
52.0% James French Hill48.0% Chris Jones
French Hill (R)Chris Jones (D)● verified poll · ○ quarantined poll · ◎ live average
Vugol Tensor
How far this poll average can miss · a range, not a prediction
Centre R+4.0. Four times in five the result lands between D+2.7 and R+10.7; nine in ten between D+4.6 and R+12.6. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: 22%.
Same inputs as the Vugol Tensor page: the verified polling average above (1 verified poll), plus how far polls have missed since 1998. In the backtest the plain poll average picked the wrong winner in about 11% of polled, mostly competitive races (11.2%, 946 races, 1998 to 2024), and polls miss together. Not a forecast guarantee. How Tensor works →
Results
Vote counts from the state’s own results feed, read every minute while votes are counted. Counts change until the state certifies.
general election · state results feed, unofficial
| French Hill won | 127,550 | 50.9% |
| French Hill (incumbent) won | 127,452 | - |
| Chris Jones | 123,209 | 49.1% |
| Chris Jones | 123,096 | - |
French Hill leads by 4,341 votes. 100% of reporting units counted.
Democratic primary
| Chris Jones won | 47,512 | 92.6% |
| Zack Huffman | 3,806 | 7.4% |
Republican primary · official results
| French Hill (incumbent) won | 49,079 | 76.8% |
| Chase McDowell | 14,830 | 23.2% |
Source: the state's official results feed, retrieved 2026-11-14 · parser state-feed-1.0.0
In the news
Couldn’t load news right now.
LabVugol Vector & Vugol Attention
Vugol Attention 4 Vugol Vector R · Tilting
Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
4OUT OF 100Low attention
Vugol Attention percentile0th
7-day momentum12 / 100
Source breadth0% of tracked
Vugol Vector
Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: medium
Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean
AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored
Completeness4 of 7 inputs (national, prior, incumbent, money) · missing: pres, pulse, poll
Evidenceno audit release · fundamentals only
Freshnessoldest input 2026-11-08 (7 days ago)
The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.
Desk data: daily telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans
Sources
- Roster, official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Vugol Attention inputs, Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results, individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models attention-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 f05ed4e7e172 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Vugol Vector band: R · Tilting. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.
The four Vugol signals, side by side
They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.
- Vugol Vector
- Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
- Vugol Tensor
- How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
- Vugol Attention
- How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
- Vugol Pulse
- Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.