Lawler +3Within margin of error
- Cait Conley Democratic: 47%
- Michael Vincent Lawler Republican: 50%
NY2026
U.S. House - NY-17 · New York · 2026
General election · 2 on the November ballot · Incumbent running
Result
CalledFlip: other to DCait Conley (D) won this race, defeating incumbent Mike Lawler.
- Cait ConleyWorking FamiliesWinnerno count in the source
Also on the ballot, no count in the source: Mike Lawler (R).
- Called
- Called by Wikipedia editors, Nov 4, 8:25 AM ET (revision)
- Seat
- Changed party: held by Mike Lawler (other)
- Last updated
- Nov 7, 8:53 AM ET
Called it: hit Our locked call before polls closed was D; the winner is D. See every locked call
Unofficial until the state certifies the result.
Before the election
Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.
Race poll averageU.S. House - NY-17 · New York
Cait Conley
50.1%
Michael Vincent Lawler
49.9%
Verified poll average · 3 polls · newest poll ended 2026-09-30
Verified polls Conley leads Lawler by 0.3 points in our average of verified polls.
3 verified polls averaged, newest ended 2026-09-30. Page updated 2026-11-14. Sources · What is validated
ExperimentalNews attention 0/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated yesterday. How it works
On the November ballot (2)
From reported primary results, checked 2026-11-14. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.
Ran in the primary (4)
Lost a primary or runoff for this seat, not on the November ballot.
Other filers (3)
Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.
Ballot source: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_New_York&oldid=1385333622
Tied
- Cait Conley Democratic: 50.1%
- Michael Vincent Lawler Republican: Incumbent49.9%
Latest verified field polling
Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.
Cite / verify
Cite thishttps://vugol.me/races/US-NY-17
Sourcehttps://nypost.com/2026/10/02/us-news/gop-rep-mike-lawler-leads-dem-cait-conley-in-battleground-ny-house-district-new-internal-poll/
Retrieved2026-11-14
Polling average Updates as polls arrive
50.1% Cait Conley49.9% Michael Vincent Lawler
Cait Conley (D)Mike Lawler (R)● verified poll · ○ quarantined poll · ◎ live average
Vugol Tensor
How far this poll average can miss · a range, not a prediction
Centre D+0.3. Four times in five the result lands between D+7.0 and R+6.4; nine in ten between D+8.9 and R+8.3. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: 52%.
Same inputs as the Vugol Tensor page: the verified polling average above (3 verified polls), plus how far polls have missed since 1998. In the backtest the plain poll average picked the wrong winner in about 11% of polled, mostly competitive races (11.2%, 946 races, 1998 to 2024), and polls miss together. Not a forecast guarantee. How Tensor works →
Campaign money (FEC)
Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Vincent Lawler | $10,317,627 | $8,527,472 | $1,959,524 | 2026-10-14 |
| Beth Davidson | $2,231,647 | $2,198,912 | $32,735 | 2026-10-14 |
| Cait Conley | $10,706,692 | $9,758,153 | $948,540 | 2026-10-14 |
| Effie Phillips-Staley | $0 | $0 | $0 | 2026-11-14 |
| Jessica Reinmann | $655,476 | $655,476 | $0 | 2026-07-06 |
| John Cappello | $79,637 | $79,190 | $447 | 2026-09-30 |
| John Sullivan | $485,609 | $483,336 | $2,273 | 2026-09-30 |
| Mike Sacks | $298,002 | $281,081 | $0 | 2026-09-30 |
| Peter Chatzky | $11,707,922 | $11,707,132 | $789 | 2026-06-30 |
Ad spending (FEC)
What each campaign reported paying for ads, and what outside groups (super PACs, PACs and parties) reported spending for and against each candidate. Federal Election Commission filings, public domain.
| Candidate | Campaign's own ads | Outside groups for | Outside groups against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cait Conley | $1.4M | $4.3M | $5.2M |
| Michael Vincent Lawler | $223K | $4.4M | $4.9M |
| Beth Davidson | $574K | ||
| Peter Chatzky | $224K | ||
| John Sullivan | $50K | ||
| Mike Sacks | $5,926 |
Biggest outside spenders
- Cait Conley. For: VoteVets $1.1M, Battleground New York $1M, New Democrat Majority $523K. Against: SAFETY & AFFORDABILITY PAC INC. $2.9M, PROGRESSIVE CHAMPIONS PAC $1.5M, NO GOING BACK PAC INC. $382K
- Michael Vincent Lawler. For: SAFETY & AFFORDABILITY PAC INC. $2.9M, Center Forward Initiative Inc (CFI) $435K, America PAC $330K. Against: HMP $2.3M, LCV Victory Fund $1.1M, EDF Action Votes $863K
Outside groups: 24- and 48-hour independent expenditure reports for the 2026 primary and general, through 2026-11-05, each expenditure counted once after amendments; "ads" is TV, radio, digital and other media, and the rest is mail, phones, canvassing and similar. Campaign's own ads: TV, radio, digital, other media and ad production in the campaign committee's itemized payments, as the campaign described them, from the reports the FEC has processed (latest through 2026-10-08); newer reports appear as the FEC processes them. These are amounts committees reported paying, not airtime tracked by ad-monitoring firms, so very recent buys and future reservations may not show yet. Parser fec-ad-spend-1.0.0.
Results
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state’s official results.
Democratic primary
| Cait Conley won | 23,263 | 49.6% |
| Beth Davidson | 14,938 | 31.8% |
| Effie Phillips-Staley | 7,196 | 15.3% |
| John Cappello | 758 | 1.6% |
| Michael Sacks | 756 | 1.6% |
| Write-in | 37 | 0.1% |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-11-14 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-06-23, Primary election: U.S. House
- 2026-11-03, General election: U.S. House
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (5)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to that article revision and, where we know it, to the pollster's own site.
- Democratic primary · Tavern Research (partisan) · 2026-06-12–2026-06-16 · n=574 · Cait Conley (D) 34%,Beth Davidson (D) 23%,Effie Phillips-Staley (D) 13% · release
- Democratic primary · Global Strategy Group (partisan) · 2026-05-07–2026-05-12 · n=500 · Cait Conley (D) 29%,Beth Davidson (D) 22%,Effie Phillips-Staley (D) 6% · release
- Democratic primary · Data for Progress (partisan) · 2026-04-17–2026-04-24 · n=436 · Beth Davidson (D) 26%,Cait Conley (D) 15%,Effie Phillips-Staley (D) 8% · pollster's site · release
- Democratic primary · Impact Research (partisan) · 2026-02-24–2026-02-26 · n=400 · Beth Davidson (D) 23%,Cait Conley (D) 17%,Effie Phillips-Staley (D) 8%,Peter Chatzky (D) 8% · release
- Democratic primary · Lake Research Partners (partisan) · 2026-01-27–2026-02-01 · n=401 · Cait Conley (D) 18%,Beth Davidson (D) 17%,Peter Chatzky (D) 12%,Effie Phillips-Staley (D) 5% · release
In the news
- Outgoing GOP Rep. Mike Lawler leaves door open for NY governor run after stinging re-election defeat
- How to make friends at freshman orientation
- Left-leaning Washington, Colorado join conservative states in banning trans athletes
- All the Republican House members ousted from Congress
- Lawler defeated in New York battleground district
- Progressives and moderates rejoice: 6 takeaways from the midterms
- NY’s top 5 most expensive House races include a whopping $308M in total spending
- Routine voting issues fuel conspiracy theories and confusion
- This week: It’s a barnstorm blitz as Jeffries eyes speaker’s gavel
- Ex-Biden official projected to win bid to unseat Mike Lawler in high-stakes House race
Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news
LabVugol Vector & Vugol Attention
Vugol Attention 0 Vugol Vector D · Open
Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
0OUT OF 100Low attention
Vugol Attention percentile0th
7-day momentum0 / 100
Source breadth0% of tracked
Vugol Vector
Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: medium
Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean
AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored
Completeness4 of 7 inputs (national, prior, incumbent, money) · missing: pres, pulse, poll
Evidenceno audit release · fundamentals only
Freshnessoldest input 2026-11-13 (yesterday)
The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.
Desk data: daily telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans
Sources
- Roster, official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Vugol Attention inputs, Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results, individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models attention-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 95ecf3d78542 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Vugol Vector band: Toss-up. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.
The four Vugol signals, side by side
They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.
- Vugol Vector
- Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
- Vugol Tensor
- How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
- Vugol Attention
- How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
- Vugol Pulse
- Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.