U.S. House - CO-08 · Colorado · 2026
General election · 2 on the November ballot · Incumbent running
Result
CalledFlip: R to DManny Rutinel (D) won this race with 55.4% of the vote, 14.7 points ahead, defeating incumbent Gabe Evans.
- Manny RutinelDemocraticWinner55.4%158,784 votes
- Gabe EvansRepublican40.7%116,602 votes
- Dave WoodLBR3.9%11,116 votes
- Margin
- 42,182 votes (14.7 points)
- Called
- Called by Wikipedia editors, Nov 4, 6:31 AM ET (revision)
- Seat
- Changed party: held by Gabe Evans (R)
- Last updated
- Nov 7, 8:53 AM ET
Called it: hit Our locked call before polls closed was D; the winner is D. See every locked call
Unofficial until the state certifies the result.
Before the election
Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.
Model rating Leans Democratic (Tilting) on the Vugol Vector model, a snapshot of today, not a probability.
1 poll on file, none verified yet (pollster not verified or no public source), shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 4 of 7, updated today. Page updated 2026-11-14. Sources · What is validated
ExperimentalNews attention 40/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated yesterday. How it works
On the November ballot (2)
From reported primary results, checked 2026-11-13. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.
Ran in the primary (2)
Lost a primary or runoff for this seat, not on the November ballot.
Other filers (5)
Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.
Ballot source: https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/CO/127407/386035/json/en/summary.json
Latest verified field polling
Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.
No verified poll has been published for this race. The Vugol Vector call from our model is below, it is not a poll.
Polling average
1 poll on file for this race, none verified yet (pollster not verified or no public source), visible below, not averaged.
Campaign money (FEC)
Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timothy Gabriel Joseph Evans | $7,248,106 | $5,994,909 | $1,328,189 | 2026-10-14 |
| Adam Derito | $29,694 | $26,774 | $2,920 | 2026-09-30 |
| Amie Baca-Oehlert | $134,648 | $124,204 | $10,444 | 2026-09-30 |
| Daniel Shane Hassler | $5,624 | $5,624 | $0 | 2026-03-31 |
| David L. Young | $196,586 | $196,586 | $0 | 2026-10-16 |
| Evan Munsing | $623,140 | $620,763 | $2,377 | 2026-09-30 |
| Manny Rutinel | $9,459,070 | $8,456,428 | $1,002,642 | 2026-10-14 |
| Shannon Kathleen Bird | $2,371,837 | $2,351,076 | $20,761 | 2026-09-30 |
| Yadira Caraveo | $259,154 | $263,500 | $0 | 2026-06-09 |
Ad spending (FEC)
What each campaign reported paying for ads, and what outside groups (super PACs, PACs and parties) reported spending for and against each candidate. Federal Election Commission filings, public domain.
| Candidate | Campaign's own ads | Outside groups for | Outside groups against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Timothy Gabriel Joseph Evans | $143K | $2.4M | $12M |
| Manny Rutinel | $2.5M | $6M | $5.9M |
| Shannon Kathleen Bird | $1M | $928K | $1.7M |
| Yadira Caraveo | $675 | $132K | |
| Evan Munsing | $27K | ||
| Amie Baca-Oehlert | $7,503 |
Biggest outside spenders
- Timothy Gabriel Joseph Evans. For: Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc. (AFP Action) DBA CVA Action and DBA LIBRE Action $614K, PROTECT AND SERVE PAC $312K, America PAC $307K. Against: HMP $7.8M, Mainstream Colorado Fund $1.1M, LCV Victory Fund $774K
- Manny Rutinel. For: LCV Victory Fund $1.1M, Latino Victory Fund $1M, YOU CAN PUSH BACK $977K. Against: SAFETY & AFFORDABILITY PAC INC. $2.5M, NO GOING BACK PAC INC. $1.5M, Women Vote $654K
- Shannon Kathleen Bird. For: Women Vote $654K, Elect Democratic Women $98K, Pro-Choice Majority Action $93K. Against: Latino Victory Fund $1M, Somos PAC $341K, Nuestro PAC $315K
- Yadira Caraveo. For: LCV Victory Fund $132K
Outside groups: 24- and 48-hour independent expenditure reports for the 2026 primary and general, through 2026-11-03, each expenditure counted once after amendments; "ads" is TV, radio, digital and other media, and the rest is mail, phones, canvassing and similar. Campaign's own ads: TV, radio, digital, other media and ad production in the campaign committee's itemized payments, as the campaign described them, from the reports the FEC has processed (latest through 2026-09-30); newer reports appear as the FEC processes them. These are amounts committees reported paying, not airtime tracked by ad-monitoring firms, so very recent buys and future reservations may not show yet. Parser fec-ad-spend-1.0.0.
Results
Vote counts from the state’s own results feed, read every minute while votes are counted. Counts change until the state certifies.
general election · state results feed, unofficial
| Manny Rutinel won | 158,784 | 55.4% |
| Gabe Evans | 116,602 | 40.7% |
| Dave Wood | 11,116 | 3.9% |
Manny Rutinel leads by 42,182 votes. 33% of reporting units counted.
Democratic primary
| Manny Rutinel won | 50,435 | 62.8% |
| Shannon Bird | 26,122 | 32.5% |
| Evan Munsing (withdrawn) | 3,717 | 4.6% |
Republican primary
| Gabe Evans (incumbent) won | 48,012 | 100.0% |
Source: the state's official results feed, retrieved 2026-11-07 · parser state-feed-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-06-30, Primary election: U.S. House
- 2026-11-03, General election: U.S. House
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (6)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to that article revision and, where we know it, to the pollster's own site.
- Hypothetical matchup · McLaughlin and Associates (partisan) · 2026-09-16–2026-09-17 · n=400 · Generic Republican 47%,Generic Democrat 47% · pollster's site · release
- Democratic primary · GBAO (partisan) · 2026-06-11–2026-06-14 · n=400 · Manny Rutinel (D) 44%,Shannon Bird (D) 31%,Evan Munsing (D) 5% · release
- Democratic primary · GBAO (partisan) · 2026-04-22–2026-04-26 · n=400 · Shannon Bird (D) 32%,Manny Rutinel (D) 31%,Evan Munsing (D) 5% · release
- Democratic primary · Normington Petts (partisan) · 2026-04-20–2026-04-22 · n=400 · Shannon Bird (D) 25%,Manny Rutinel (D) 24%,Evan Munsing (D) 6% · release
- Democratic primary · Normington Petts (partisan) · 2026-02-19–2026-02-23 · n=400 · Manny Rutinel (D) 20%,Shannon Bird (D) 19%,Evan Munsing (D) 4% · release
- Democratic primary · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2025-05-19–2025-05-20 · n=467 · Yadira Caraveo (D) 36%,Dave Young (D) 8%,Manny Rutinel (D) 8%,Shannon Bird (D) 5%,Amie Baca-Oehlert (D) 4% · release
In the news
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- GOP incumbents in 4 midterm House races could be in trouble as Trump’s support among Hispanic voters plummets
- 2026 midterm election races to watch
- Johnson and Thune adopt Trump’s messaging on ‘fake’ polling as GOP looks to project midterm optimism
- Republicans return to tough-on-crime message ahead of difficult midterm elections
- Johnson and Thune adopt Trump’s messaging on ‘fake’ polling as GOP looks to project midterm optimism
Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news
LabVugol Vector & Vugol Attention
Vugol Attention 40 Vugol Vector D · Tilting
Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
Vugol Vector
Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: medium
The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.
Vugol Tensor
How far this call can miss · a range, not a prediction · no verified poll here, so the range is wider and untested
Centre D+5.2. Four times in five the result lands between D+14.6 and R+4.3; nine in ten between D+17.2 and R+6.9. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: 76%.
Polls have missed by about four points in a typical race and they miss together. How Tensor works →
Desk data: daily telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans
Sources
- Roster, official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Vugol Attention inputs, Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results, individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models attention-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 c7860d614947 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Vugol Vector band: D · Tilting. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.
The four Vugol signals, side by side
They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.
- Vugol Vector
- Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
- Vugol Tensor
- How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
- Vugol Attention
- How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
- Vugol Pulse
- Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.