U.S. House - FL-13 · Florida · 2026
General election · 3 on the November ballot · Incumbent running
Result
CalledAnna Paulina Luna (R) won this race with 49.5% of the vote, 0.8 points ahead.
- Anna Paulina LunaRepublicanWinner49.5%155,189 votes
- Leela GrayDemocratic48.7%152,698 votes
- Tony D'ArrigoIndependent1.8%5,782 votes
- Margin
- 2,491 votes (0.8 points)
- Called
- Called by Wikipedia editors, Nov 5, 2:45 PM ET (revision)
- Last updated
- Nov 7, 8:53 AM ET
- Source
- State results feed
Called it: hit Our locked call before polls closed was R; the winner is R. See every locked call
Unofficial until the state certifies the result.
Before the election
Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.
Model rating Leans neither way (Open) on the Vugol Vector model, a snapshot of today, not a probability.
6 polls on file, none verified yet (pollster not verified or no public source), shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 4 of 7, updated today. Page updated 2026-11-14. Sources · What is validated
ExperimentalNews attention 9/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated today. How it works
On the November ballot (3)
From reported primary results, checked 2026-11-14. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.
Ran in the primary (2)
Lost a primary or runoff for this seat, not on the November ballot.
Other filers (3)
Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.
Ballot source: https://floridaelectionwatch.gov/FederalOffices/USSenator
Early vote in Florida
5,547,554 ballots cast statewide as of 2026-11-14 · registered Democrats 37.8%, Republicans 40.1%, unaffiliated 19.6%. Turnout by registration, not votes; never part of the rating. Full tracker →
Latest verified field polling
Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.
No verified poll has been published for this race. The Vugol Vector call from our model is below, it is not a poll.
Polling average
6 polls on file for this race, none verified yet (pollster not verified or no public source), visible below, not averaged.
Campaign money (FEC)
Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anna Paulina Luna | $4,351,792 | $3,736,252 | $746,955 | 2026-10-14 |
| Earle Ford | $689,951 | $700,689 | $-10,738 | 2026-09-30 |
| John William Liccione | $16,695 | $16,695 | $0 | 2026-09-30 |
| Karla Kemp | $10,639 | $8,589 | $707 | 2026-09-30 |
| Leela J Gray | $2,917,665 | $2,261,242 | $656,423 | 2026-10-14 |
| Reginald Paros | $15,864 | $15,864 | $0 | 2025-12-31 |
| Timothy Brandt Robinson | $111,374 | $103,754 | $7,620 | 2026-09-30 |
| Tony C D'Arrigo | $28,181 | $2,500 | $25,681 | 2026-06-30 |
Ad spending (FEC)
What each campaign reported paying for ads, and what outside groups (super PACs, PACs and parties) reported spending for and against each candidate. Federal Election Commission filings, public domain.
| Candidate | Campaign's own ads | Outside groups for | Outside groups against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anna Paulina Luna | $42K | $546K | $6.1M |
| Leela J Gray | $13K | $322K | $3.5M |
| Earle Ford | $363K | ||
| Timothy Brandt Robinson | $36K | ||
| John William Liccione | $0 | ||
| Karla Kemp | $0 |
Biggest outside spenders
- Anna Paulina Luna. For: NO GOING BACK PAC INC. $405K, American Liberty Foundation PAC $51K, MAHA PAC $50K. Against: HMP $4.4M, Giffords PAC $857K, NRDC Action Votes $300K
- Leela J Gray. For: Progressive Turnout Project $176K, HMP $91K, AB PAC $18K. Against: NO GOING BACK PAC INC. $1.9M, Win it Back PAC $849K, ADVANCING PRINCIPLED LEADERSHIP $394K
Outside groups: 24- and 48-hour independent expenditure reports for the 2026 primary and general, through 2026-11-13, each expenditure counted once after amendments; "ads" is TV, radio, digital and other media, and the rest is mail, phones, canvassing and similar. Campaign's own ads: TV, radio, digital, other media and ad production in the campaign committee's itemized payments, as the campaign described them, from the reports the FEC has processed (latest through 2026-09-30); newer reports appear as the FEC processes them. These are amounts committees reported paying, not airtime tracked by ad-monitoring firms, so very recent buys and future reservations may not show yet. Parser fec-ad-spend-1.0.0.
Results
Vote counts from the state’s own results feed, read every minute while votes are counted. Counts change until the state certifies.
general election · state results feed, unofficial
| Anna Paulina Luna won | 155,189 | 49.5% |
| Leela Gray | 152,698 | 48.7% |
| Tony D'Arrigo | 5,782 | 1.8% |
Anna Paulina Luna leads by 2,491 votes.
Democratic primary
| Leela Gray won | 32,705 | 65.0% |
| Timothy Brandt Robinson | 13,279 | 26.4% |
| John Liccione | 4,327 | 8.6% |
Source: the state's official results feed, retrieved 2026-11-07 · parser state-feed-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-08-18, Primary election: U.S. House
- 2026-11-03, General election: U.S. House
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (1)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to that article revision and, where we know it, to the pollster's own site.
- Hypothetical matchup · Hart Research Associates (partisan) · 2026-08-25–2026-08-27 · n=500 · Generic Democrat 49%,Generic Republican 44% · pollster's site · release
In the news
- Rep. Anna Paulina Luna says she'll reject PAC money, funding from foreign policy groups
- James Fishback allegedly blocked from entering Florida Republicans' rally
- Sen. Ruben Gallego rolls out an economic agenda as he weighs a 2028 White House bid
- Pro-Israel Republican makes major campaign finance pledge after razor-thin election victory
- New Dems look to boost ranks and build clout
- Weeks before Election Day, the FEC can't enforce the law
- Democrats' fury over Ilhan Omar raid draws stinging GOP reminder about raid from the past: ‘Set the precedent’
- Sobering warning about AI’s potential harm focuses Congress’ attention
- GOP rising star helped topple Trump-backed incumbent. Now he's caught leadership's eye
- NJ Rep. LaMonica McIver gives birth as she awaits federal trial for allegedly assaulting cops at anti-ICE protest
Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news
LabVugol Vector & Vugol Attention
Vugol Attention 9 Vugol Vector · Open
Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
Vugol Vector
Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: medium
The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.
Vugol Tensor
How far this call can miss · a range, not a prediction · no verified poll here, so the range is wider and untested
Centre R+0.7. Four times in five the result lands between D+8.7 and R+10.1; nine in ten between D+11.3 and R+12.8. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: 46%.
Polls have missed by about four points in a typical race and they miss together. How Tensor works →
Desk data: daily telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans
Sources
- Roster, official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Vugol Attention inputs, Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results, individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models attention-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 d79fa628db58 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Vugol Vector band: Toss-up. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.
The four Vugol signals, side by side
They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.
- Vugol Vector
- Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
- Vugol Tensor
- How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
- Vugol Attention
- How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
- Vugol Pulse
- Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.