Home / Races / Florida / U.S. House — FL-13

FL2026

U.S. House — FL-13 · Florida · 2026

Name: U.S. House — FL-13, Florida — Vugol Me Attention & Vector
Creator: Vugol Me
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

General election · 1 on the November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)

Community poll

Model rating Leans Republican (Open) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.

4 polls on file from pollsters we have not verified yet — shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 4 of 7, updated yesterday. Sources · What is validated

News attention 62/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 4 days ago. How it works

On the November ballot (1)

From reported primary results, checked 2026-09-29. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.

Leela J GrayU.S. House — FL-13 · FEC H6FL13312DemocraticOn the ballotFEC raised$1.2M

Ran in the primary (2)

Lost a primary or runoff for this seat — not on the November ballot.

John William LiccioneU.S. House — FL-13 · FEC H4FL13176DemocraticLost primaryFEC raised$15K Timothy Brandt RobinsonU.S. House — FL-13 · FEC H6FL13254DemocraticLost primaryFEC raised$106K

Other filers (5)

Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.

Anna Paulina LunaU.S. House — FL-13 · FEC H0FL13158Republican IncumbentNot on the November ballotFEC raised$3.2M Earle FordU.S. House — FL-13 · FEC H6FL13239DemocraticNot on the November ballotFEC raised$569K Karla KempU.S. House — FL-13 · FEC H6FL13262DemocraticNot on the November ballotFEC raised$11K Reginald ParosU.S. House — FL-13 · FEC H6FL13247DemocraticNot on the November ballotFEC raised$16K Tony C D'ArrigoU.S. House — FL-13 · FEC H4FL13234IndependentNot on the November ballotFEC raised$28K

Ballot source: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Florida&oldid=1377372095

Latest verified field polling

Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.

none yet

No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.

Polling average

no verified inputs yet

4 polls on file for this race, all from quarantined (U-tier) pollsters — visible below, not yet averaged.

Leela Gray (D)Anna Paulina Luna (R)● verified poll · ○ quarantined poll · ◎ live average

Campaign money (FEC)

Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Through
Anna Paulina Luna Republican	$3,233,312	$1,890,603	$1,474,124	2026-07-29
Earle Ford Democratic	$569,489	$553,304	$16,185	2026-03-31
John William Liccione Democratic	$15,279	$14,853	$426	2026-07-29
Karla Kemp Democratic	$10,639	$8,589	$1,573	2026-06-30
Leela J Gray Democratic	$1,223,069	$539,774	$683,295	2026-07-29
Reginald Paros Democratic	$15,864	$15,864	$0	2025-12-31
Timothy Brandt Robinson Democratic	$106,026	$98,333	$7,693	2026-07-29
Tony C D'Arrigo Independent	$28,181	$2,500	$25,681	2026-06-30

Results

Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.

Democratic primary

Leela Gray won	32,705	65.0%
Timothy Brandt Robinson	13,279	26.4%
John Liccione	4,327	8.6%

Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-29 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0

Key dates

Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.

2026-08-18 — Primary election: U.S. House
2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. House

Source: FEC election dates (public domain).

Primary and hypothetical polls (1)

Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.

Hypothetical matchup · Hart Research Associates (partisan) · 2026-08-25–2026-08-27 · n=500 · Generic Democrat 49%, Generic Republican 44% · release

In the news

Sobering warning about AI’s potential harm focuses Congress’ attentionChristian Science Monitor · Sep 14

Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news

Signals (experimental)

Attention 62 Vector R · Open

Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)

Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly

pulse-1.0.0

62OUT OF 100Moderate attention

Attention percentile90th

7-day momentum24 / 100

Source breadth50% of tracked

Vugol Me Vector (experimental)

Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: medium

vector-1.1.0

Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean

AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored

Completeness4 of 7 inputs (national, prior, incumbent, money) · missing: pres, pulse, poll

Evidenceno verified poll · fundamentals only

Freshnessoldest input 2026-09-26 (4 days ago)

Vector component signals · estimated margin R +1.5Fundraising velocity (FEC)R +2.9Last result for this seat (2024 R +9.7, national swing D +10.5)D +0.8IncumbencyR +6.0National environment: our generic-ballot average is D +7.9 (27 pollsters, as of 2026-09-29), against the 2024 national House vote of R +2.6. The seat's last result and presidential lean move by that swing; polls, incumbency and money do not. How.

Daily precision telemetry

Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans

Sources

Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 fc8c18c16370 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).

Band: Toss-up (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.