Flores +1Within margin of error
- Vicente Gonzalez Democratic: 40%
- Eric Flores Republican: 41%
TX2026
U.S. House - TX-34 · Texas · 2026
General election · 3 on the certified November ballot · Incumbent running
Result
CalledVicente Gonzalez (D) won this race with 55.7% of the vote, 16.0 points ahead.
- Vicente GonzalezDemocraticIncumbentWinner55.7%112,547 votes
- Eric FloresRepublican39.7%80,168 votes
- Chris RoyalLibertarian2.3%4,639 votes
- Eddie EspinozaGRE1.9%1,544 votes
- Margin
- 32,379 votes (16.0 points)
- Called
- First seen here, Nov 4, 9:50 AM ET
- Last updated
- Nov 7, 8:53 AM ET
Called it: hit Our locked call before polls closed was D; the winner is D. See every locked call
Unofficial until the state certifies the result.
Before the election
Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.
Certified ballotU.S. House - TX-34 · Texas
Vicente Gonzalez
DEM
Eric Flores
REP
No verified poll yet · Vugol Vector: D Tilting
Verified polls Leans Democratic (Tilting) on the Vugol Vector model, a snapshot of today, not a probability.
1 verified poll averaged. Page updated 2026-11-15. Sources · What is validated
ExperimentalNews attention 53/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated yesterday. How it works
On the November ballot (3)
Certified by the state on 2026-08-28, checked 2026-11-15.
Not on the certified ballot (8)
Filed or ran for this seat, but not on the state’s certified list for November.
Charles MandelRepublicanNot on the November ballot$1.0MEtienne RosasDemocraticNot on the November ballot$170KGregory Scott Kunkle Jr.RepublicanNot on the November ballot$9KJay NagyRepublicanNot on the November ballot$15KKeith AllenRepublicanNot on the November ballot$157KLuis F BuentelloRepublicanNot on the November ballot$45KMario Alberto MoralesRepublicanNot on the November ballot$16KMauro Everett GarzaRepublicanNot on the November ballot$13K
Official source: https://www.sos.texas.gov/elections/forms/2026-ballot-cert.pdf
Latest verified field polling
Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.
Cite / verify
Cite thishttps://vugol.me/races/US-TX-34
Sourcehttps://www.nrcc.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/NRCC-TX-34-Survey-Memo-1.pdf
Retrieved2026-11-15
Polling average Updates as polls arrive
Vicente Gonzalez (D)Eric Flores (R)● verified poll · ○ quarantined poll · ◎ live average
Campaign money (FEC)
Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vicente Gonzalez | $5,211,344 | $4,096,455 | $1,396,949 | 2026-10-14 |
| Charles Mandel | $1,002,821 | $1,034,606 | $54,686 | 2026-07-15 |
| Eric Flores | $4,009,074 | $3,762,621 | $246,427 | 2026-10-14 |
| Etienne Rosas | $170,356 | $150,381 | $17,158 | 2026-03-31 |
| Gregory Scott Kunkle Jr. | $9,155 | $7,854 | $1,301 | 2025-12-31 |
| Jay Nagy | $15,459 | $15,459 | $0 | 2026-02-04 |
| Keith Allen | $156,627 | $157,571 | $0 | 2026-03-31 |
| Luis F Buentello | $45,004 | $46,001 | $-1,812 | 2026-09-30 |
| Mario Alberto Morales | $16,335 | $16,335 | $0 | 2025-09-30 |
| Mauro Everett Garza | $12,502 | $12,659 | $0 | 2026-09-30 |
Ad spending (FEC)
What each campaign reported paying for ads, and what outside groups (super PACs, PACs and parties) reported spending for and against each candidate. Federal Election Commission filings, public domain.
| Candidate | Campaign's own ads | Outside groups for | Outside groups against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Flores | $855K | $2.8M | $11.7M |
| Vicente Gonzalez | $49K | $1.9M | $6.6M |
| Etienne Rosas | $99K | ||
| Charles Mandel | $55K | ||
| Keith Allen | $47K | ||
| Luis F Buentello | $4,529 |
Biggest outside spenders
- Eric Flores. For: NO GOING BACK PAC INC. $1.6M, Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc. (AFP Action) DBA CVA Action and DBA LIBRE Action $438K, OPERATION GUARDIAN SUPPORT PAC $168K. Against: HMP $9.7M, BOLD America $1.2M, CHC BOLD PAC $500K
- Vicente Gonzalez. For: America's Credit Unions PAC $700K, HMP $477K, Article One PAC $432K. Against: NO GOING BACK PAC INC. $3.3M, SAFETY & AFFORDABILITY PAC INC. $2M, RESTORATION OF AMERICA PAC $968K
Outside groups: 24- and 48-hour independent expenditure reports for the 2026 primary and general, through 2026-11-03, each expenditure counted once after amendments; "ads" is TV, radio, digital and other media, and the rest is mail, phones, canvassing and similar. Campaign's own ads: TV, radio, digital, other media and ad production in the campaign committee's itemized payments, as the campaign described them, from the reports the FEC has processed (latest through 2026-06-30); newer reports appear as the FEC processes them. These are amounts committees reported paying, not airtime tracked by ad-monitoring firms, so very recent buys and future reservations may not show yet. Parser fec-ad-spend-1.0.0.
Results
Vote counts from the state’s own results feed, read every minute while votes are counted. Counts change until the state certifies.
general election · state results feed, unofficial
| Vicente Gonzalez (incumbent) won | 112,547 | 55.7% |
| Eric Flores | 80,168 | 39.7% |
| Eddie Espinoza | 4,737 | 2.3% |
| Chris Royal | 4,639 | 2.3% |
| Eddie Espinoza | 1,544 | 1.9% |
Vicente Gonzalez leads by 32,379 votes. 100% of reporting units counted.
Democratic primary
| Vicente Gonzalez (incumbent) won | 35,342 | 62.7% |
| Etienne Rosas | 20,993 | 37.3% |
Republican primary
| Eric Flores won | 20,726 | 56.7% |
| Mayra Flores | 8,652 | 23.7% |
| Luis Buentello | 1,943 | 5.3% |
| Scott Mandel | 1,638 | 4.5% |
| Fred Hinojosa | 1,395 | 3.8% |
| Keith Allen | 1,378 | 3.8% |
| Gregory Kunkle | 690 | 1.9% |
| Jay Nagy | 159 | 0.4% |
Source: the state's official results feed, retrieved 2026-11-04 · parser state-feed-1.0.0+all-reporting/unassailable-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-03-03, Primary election: U.S. House
- 2026-04-11, Convention: U.S. House, LIB
- 2026-05-26, Runoff: U.S. House
- 2026-11-03, General election: U.S. House
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (1)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to that article revision and, where we know it, to the pollster's own site.
- Hypothetical matchup · co/efficient (partisan) · 2026-04-25–2026-04-29 · n=777 · Generic Republican 48%,Generic Democrat 44% · pollster's site · release
In the news
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- This week: Campaigns make final frantic moves as Election Day arrives
Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news
LabVugol Vector & Vugol Attention
Vugol Attention 53 Vugol Vector D · Tilting
Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
53OUT OF 100Moderate attention
Vugol Attention percentile80th
7-day momentum8 / 100
Source breadth50% of tracked
Candidate attention share · trailing 7 days100% D · 0% R
Vicente Gonzalez (D) 100% · volume 39 / 7d
Vugol Vector
Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: medium
Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean
AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored
Completeness4 of 7 inputs (national, prior, incumbent, money) · missing: pres, pulse, poll
Evidenceno audit release · fundamentals only
Freshnessoldest input 2026-11-14 (yesterday)
The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.
Vugol Tensor
How far this call can miss · a range, not a prediction · no verified poll here, so the range is wider and untested
Centre D+9.3. Four times in five the result lands between D+18.7 and R+0.1; nine in ten between D+21.4 and R+2.7. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: 90%.
Polls have missed by about four points in a typical race and they miss together. How Tensor works →
Desk data: daily telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans
Sources
- Roster, official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Vugol Attention inputs, Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results, individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models attention-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 e29c72b26d11 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Vugol Vector band: D · Tilting. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.
The four Vugol signals, side by side
They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.
- Vugol Vector
- Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
- Vugol Tensor
- How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
- Vugol Attention
- How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
- Vugol Pulse
- Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.