U.S. House - OH-07 · Ohio · 2026
General election · 2 on the November ballot · Incumbent running
Result
Not yet decidedNo result has been reported for the Ohio's 7th District race yet. The state publishes its count on its official results page.
Checked against our results rows (state feeds and Wikipedia’s race tables). The polls and ratings further down were published before the election and are not results.
Before the election
Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.
Model rating Leans Republican (Open) on the Vugol Vector model, a snapshot of today, not a probability.
3 polls on file, none verified yet (pollster not verified or no public source), shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 5 of 7, updated today. Page updated 2026-11-14. Sources · What is validated
ExperimentalNews attention 59/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 6 days ago. How it works
On the November ballot (2)
From reported primary results, checked 2026-11-14. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.
Ran in the primary (4)
Lost a primary or runoff for this seat, not on the November ballot.
Other filers (1)
Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.
Ballot source: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Ohio&oldid=1385574075
Latest verified field polling
Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.
No verified poll has been published for this race. The Vugol Vector call from our model is below, it is not a poll.
Polling average
3 polls on file for this race, none verified yet (pollster not verified or no public source), visible below, not averaged.
Campaign money (FEC)
Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Miller | $3,324,942 | $3,363,842 | $135,629 | 2026-10-14 |
| Brian Poindexter | $3,720,150 | $2,926,975 | $793,675 | 2026-10-14 |
| Edward O'Donnell Fitzgerald | $281,272 | $295,882 | $-76,246 | 2026-06-30 |
| Jonah Schulz | $15,510 | $15,510 | $0 | 2025-10-28 |
| Laura D Rodriguez-Carbone | $13,122 | $13,122 | $0 | 2026-06-30 |
| Michael Eisner | $69,931 | $69,931 | $0 | 2026-06-30 |
| Scott Schulz | $30,866 | $31,735 | $0 | 2026-06-08 |
Ad spending (FEC)
What each campaign reported paying for ads, and what outside groups (super PACs, PACs and parties) reported spending for and against each candidate. Federal Election Commission filings, public domain.
| Candidate | Campaign's own ads | Outside groups for | Outside groups against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Max Miller | $11K | $727K | $10.3M |
| Brian Poindexter | $97K | $1.3M | $1.1M |
| Edward O'Donnell Fitzgerald | $0 | $60K | |
| Jonah Schulz | $8,758 | ||
| Scott Schulz | $6,017 | ||
| Laura D Rodriguez-Carbone | $43 |
Biggest outside spenders
- Max Miller. For: CIVIC RENEWAL FUND INC. $441K, JOBS & PROSPERITY PAC $155K, American Liberty Foundation PAC $53K. Against: HMP $6.8M, YOUR COMMUNITY PAC $2M, Ready for the Fight PAC $728K
- Brian Poindexter. For: JOBS AND DEMOCRACY PAC $512K, Progressive Turnout Project $380K, BDA PAC $198K. Against: JOBS & PROSPERITY PAC $838K, America PAC $115K, CIVIC RENEWAL FUND INC. $94K
- Edward O'Donnell Fitzgerald. Against: JOBS & PROSPERITY PAC $60K
Outside groups: 24- and 48-hour independent expenditure reports for the 2026 primary and general, through 2026-11-13, each expenditure counted once after amendments; "ads" is TV, radio, digital and other media, and the rest is mail, phones, canvassing and similar. Campaign's own ads: TV, radio, digital, other media and ad production in the campaign committee's itemized payments, as the campaign described them, from the reports the FEC has processed (latest through 2026-06-30); newer reports appear as the FEC processes them. These are amounts committees reported paying, not airtime tracked by ad-monitoring firms, so very recent buys and future reservations may not show yet. Parser fec-ad-spend-1.0.0.
Results
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state’s official results.
Democratic primary
| Brian Poindexter won | 23,167 | 37.0% |
| Ed FitzGerald | 13,505 | 21.6% |
| Laura Rodriguez-Carbone | 7,719 | 12.3% |
| Michael Eisner | 7,361 | 11.8% |
| Ann Marie Donegan | 6,562 | 10.5% |
| Scott Schulz | 2,698 | 4.3% |
| John Butchko | 907 | 1.5% |
| Keith Mundy | 697 | 1.1% |
Libertarian primary
| Brian Duvall-Gambino (write-in) | 23 | 100.0% |
Republican primary
| Max Miller (incumbent) won | 50,345 | 100.0% |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-11-14 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-05-05, Primary election: U.S. House
- 2026-11-03, General election: U.S. House
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (7)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to that article revision and, where we know it, to the pollster's own site.
- Hypothetical matchup · RedBox Research (partisan) · 2026-10-20–2026-10-23 · n=875 · Brian Poindexter (D) 46%,Max Miller (R) 42% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Bedrock Polling (partisan) · 2026-08-07–2026-08-10 · n=866 · Generic Republican 44%,Generic Democrat 43%,Generic Libertarian 2% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Bedrock Polling (partisan) · 2026-08-07–2026-08-10 · n=866 · Generic Republican 44%,Brian Poindexter (D) 39%,Generic Libertarian 1% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Bedrock Polling (partisan) · 2026-08-07–2026-08-10 · n=866 · Brian Poindexter (D) 43%,Max Miller (R) 35% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Tavern Research (partisan) · 2026-08-04–2026-08-05 · n=635 · Generic Democrat 50%,Generic Republican 50% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Tavern Research (partisan) · 2026-08-04–2026-08-05 · n=635 · Brian Poindexter (D) 54%,Max Miller (R) 46% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · GBAO (partisan) · 2026-06-16–2026-06-20 · n=500 · Max Miller (R) 44%,Brian Poindexter (D) 43% · release
In the news
- Dems launch sexual harassment probe against newly elected Brian Poindexter, who ousted GOP Rep. Max Miller
- House Democrats Open Inquiry After Incoming Lawmaker Accused of Sexual Harassment
- House Democrats' campaign arm investigates sexual harassment allegation against Poindexter
- New congressman faces sexual harassment allegation
- Moreno responds to former son-in-law Miller's re-election loss
- All the Republican House members ousted from Congress
- Newly elected House Democrat under investigation for alleged sexual harassment
- Lame-duck Rep. Max Miller’s custody trial delayed after expert concludes his ex-wife has PTSD
- Final rating changes: 63 races move toward Democrats, 1 toward Republicans
- Brian Poindexter, incoming House Democrat, is under investigation for sexual harassment
Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news
LabVugol Vector & Vugol Attention
Vugol Attention 59 Vugol Vector R · Open
Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
Vugol Vector
Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: medium
The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.
Vugol Tensor
How far this call can miss · a range, not a prediction · no verified poll here, so the range is wider and untested
Centre R+4.3. Four times in five the result lands between D+5.1 and R+13.7; nine in ten between D+7.8 and R+16.4. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: 28%.
Polls have missed by about four points in a typical race and they miss together. How Tensor works →
Desk data: daily telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans
Sources
- Roster, official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Vugol Attention inputs, Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results, individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models attention-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 7648aab912bd · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Vugol Vector band: Toss-up. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.
The four Vugol signals, side by side
They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.
- Vugol Vector
- Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
- Vugol Tensor
- How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
- Vugol Attention
- How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
- Vugol Pulse
- Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.