U.S. House — NY-04 · New York · 2026
General election · 5 on the November ballot · Incumbent running
Model rating Leans Democratic (Held) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.
No polls on file for this race. Model inputs: 3 of 7, updated today. Sources · What is validated
News attention 58/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 10 days ago. How it works
On the November ballot (3)
From reported primary results, checked 2026-09-29. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.
Ran in the primary (1)
Lost a primary or runoff for this seat — not on the November ballot.
Other filers (4)
Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.
Ballot source: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_New_York&oldid=1377416565
Latest verified field polling
Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.
No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.
Polling average
No polls on file for this race yet. See latest polls across every race.
Campaign money (FEC)
Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blay Tarnoff | $24,500 | $24,500 | $0 | 2026-06-30 |
| Dennis Joseph McGrath | $10,000 | $8,911 | $1,089 | 2026-06-30 |
| Gian A Jones | $7,437 | $5,338 | $11,682 | 2026-03-31 |
| Jeanine Driscoll | $264,824 | $38,550 | $226,274 | 2026-06-30 |
| Kiana Bierria-Anderson | $26,937 | $18,323 | $8,614 | 2026-03-31 |
| Laura Gillen | $5,097,222 | $1,276,602 | $3,843,824 | 2026-06-30 |
| Marvin Suber Williams | $137,263 | $136,228 | $1,036 | 2026-06-30 |
| Taylor R Darling | $33,700 | $31,826 | $1,875 | 2026-06-30 |
Results
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.
Republican primary
| Jeanine Driscoll won | 13,063 | 90.8% |
| Marvin Williams | 1,278 | 8.9% |
| Write-in | 53 | 0.4% |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-29 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0
Signals (experimental)
Attention 58 Vector D · Held
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
Vugol Me Vector (experimental)
Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: medium
Daily precision telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans
Sources
- Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 dba8b3b7bbbf · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Band: D · Held (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.