U.S. House - FL-19 · Florida · 2026
General election · 3 on the November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)
Result
CalledJim Schwartzel (R) won this race with 61.1% of the vote, 23.5 points ahead.
- Jim SchwartzelRepublicanWinner61.1%198,765 votes
- Victor AriasDemocratic37.6%122,425 votes
- Seth HaskinIndependent1.2%3,998 votes
Also on the ballot, no count in the source: Seth Haskins (I).
- Margin
- 76,340 votes (23.5 points)
- Called
- Called by Wikipedia editors, Nov 3, 7:18 PM ET (revision)
- Last updated
- Nov 7, 8:53 AM ET
- Source
- State results feed
Called it: hit Our locked call before polls closed was R; the winner is R. See every locked call
Unofficial until the state certifies the result.
Before the election
Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.
Model rating Leans Republican (Anchored) on the Vugol Vector model, a snapshot of today, not a probability.
No polls on file for this race. Model inputs: 3 of 7, updated today. Page updated 2026-11-15. Sources · What is validated
ExperimentalNews attention 48/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated today. How it works
On the November ballot (3)
From reported primary results, checked 2026-11-14. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.
Ran in the primary (11)
Lost a primary or runoff for this seat, not on the November ballot.
Ballot source: https://floridaelectionwatch.gov/FederalOffices/USSenator
Early vote in Florida
5,547,554 ballots cast statewide as of 2026-11-14 · registered Democrats 37.8%, Republicans 40.1%, unaffiliated 19.6%. Turnout by registration, not votes; never part of the rating. Full tracker →
Latest verified field polling
Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.
No verified poll has been published for this race. The Vugol Vector call from our model is below, it is not a poll.
Polling average
No polls on file for this race yet. See latest polls across every race.
Campaign money (FEC)
Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Catalina Lauf | $1,996,711 | $1,989,876 | $6,835 | 2026-09-30 |
| Chris Collins | $3,410,000 | $3,410,000 | $0 | 2026-08-20 |
| Gregory Bukowski | $25,667 | $25,667 | $0 | 2026-09-30 |
| Howard Lee Sapp | $55,236 | $57,807 | $-2,571 | 2026-09-30 |
| James Oberweis | $5,442,627 | $3,703,960 | $1,738,667 | 2026-10-14 |
| Jim Schwartzel | $2,828,903 | $2,322,691 | $506,211 | 2026-10-14 |
| John Strand | $144,110 | $142,026 | $2,085 | 2026-09-30 |
| Linda J Sawyer | $11,550 | $11,389 | $161 | 2026-09-01 |
| Madison Cawthorn | $875,816 | $873,546 | $2,269 | 2026-09-30 |
| Mike Pedersen | $76,178 | $74,303 | $0 | 2026-10-15 |
| Ola Nesheswat Hawatmeh | $395,243 | $385,530 | $9,713 | 2026-09-30 |
| Robert M. Neeld Jr. | $29,204 | $25,955 | $3,249 | 2026-09-30 |
| Seth Haskin | $8,000 | $7,349 | $651 | 2026-10-14 |
| Victor M. Arias | $69,983 | $54,566 | $15,417 | 2026-10-14 |
Ad spending (FEC)
What each campaign reported paying for ads, and what outside groups (super PACs, PACs and parties) reported spending for and against each candidate. Federal Election Commission filings, public domain.
| Candidate | Campaign's own ads | Outside groups for | Outside groups against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Collins | $2M | $1.3M | |
| James Oberweis | $2M | $24K | |
| Catalina Lauf | $659K | $828K | |
| Jim Schwartzel | $1.3M | $48K | |
| Madison Cawthorn | $148K | ||
| Ola Nesheswat Hawatmeh | $43K | $15K |
Biggest outside spenders
- Chris Collins. Against: Win it Back PAC $1.3M
- James Oberweis. Against: Protect Freedom Political Action Committee $15K, Love America Uphold Freedom PAC $8,846
- Catalina Lauf. For: Love America Uphold Freedom PAC $724K, Club for Growth Action $54K, FREEDOM CAUCUS FUND $50K
- Jim Schwartzel. Against: Love America Uphold Freedom PAC $19K, SAVE AMERICAN FREEDOM $17K, Protect Freedom Political Action Committee $13K
- Ola Nesheswat Hawatmeh. For: FLORIDA FIRST ACTION PAC $15K
Outside groups: 24- and 48-hour independent expenditure reports for the 2026 primary and general, through 2026-08-18, each expenditure counted once after amendments; "ads" is TV, radio, digital and other media, and the rest is mail, phones, canvassing and similar. Campaign's own ads: TV, radio, digital, other media and ad production in the campaign committee's itemized payments, as the campaign described them, from the reports the FEC has processed (latest through 2026-09-30); newer reports appear as the FEC processes them. These are amounts committees reported paying, not airtime tracked by ad-monitoring firms, so very recent buys and future reservations may not show yet. Parser fec-ad-spend-1.0.0.
Results
Vote counts from the state’s own results feed, read every minute while votes are counted. Counts change until the state certifies.
general election · state results feed, unofficial
| Jim Schwartzel won | 198,765 | 61.1% |
| Victor Arias | 122,425 | 37.6% |
| Seth Haskin | 3,998 | 1.2% |
Jim Schwartzel leads by 76,340 votes.
Democratic primary
| Victor Arias won | 15,410 | 45.5% |
| Howard Sapp | 13,918 | 41.1% |
| Robert Neeld | 4,553 | 13.4% |
Republican primary
| Jim Schwartzel won | 26,153 | 29.1% |
| Catalina Lauf | 19,722 | 22.0% |
| Jim Oberweis | 14,110 | 15.7% |
| Madison Cawthorn | 7,596 | 8.5% |
| Chris Collins | 6,617 | 7.4% |
| Mike Pedersen | 5,581 | 6.2% |
| John Strand | 3,513 | 3.9% |
| Ola Hawatmeh | 2,534 | 2.8% |
| Greg "Tex" Bukowski | 2,266 | 2.5% |
| Linda Sawyer | 1,650 | 1.8% |
Source: the state's official results feed, retrieved 2026-11-07 · parser state-feed-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-08-18, Primary election: U.S. House
- 2026-11-03, General election: U.S. House
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (4)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to that article revision and, where we know it, to the pollster's own site.
- Republican primary · Victory Insights (partisan) · 2026-08-04–2026-08-06 · n=1,200 · Catalina Lauf (R) 19%,Jim Schwartzel (R) 19%,Jim Oberweis (R) 12%,Chris Collins (R) 8%,Madison Cawthorn (R) 6%,Ola Hawatmeh (R) 4%,John Strand (R) 3% · release
- Republican primary · Victory Insights (partisan) · 2026-06-20–2026-06-21 · n=350 · Jim Schwartzel (R) 13%,Jim Oberweis (R) 12%,Catalina Lauf (R) 5%,Madison Cawthorn (R) 5%,John Strand (R) 4%,Mike Pedersen (R) 4%,Chris Collins (R) 3% · release
- Republican primary · Inquire · 2025-10-04–2025-10-06 · n=302 · Chris Collins (R) 9%,Jim Oberweis (R) 8%,Madison Cawthorn (R) 8%,Jim Schwartzel (R) 5%,Mike Pedersen (R) 2%,Catalina Lauf (R) 1% · release
- Republican primary · Inquire · 2025-10-04–2025-10-06 · n=302 · Carmine Marceno 36%,Jim Oberweis (R) 7%,Chris Collins (R) 5%,Jim Schwartzel (R) 4%,Madison Cawthorn (R) 4% · release
LabVugol Vector & Vugol Attention
Vugol Attention 48 Vugol Vector R · Anchored
Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
Vugol Vector
Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: medium
The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.
Vugol Tensor
How far this call can miss · a range, not a prediction · no verified poll here, so the range is wider and untested
Centre R+18.4. Four times in five the result lands between R+9.0 and R+27.9; nine in ten between R+6.4 and R+30.5. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: <1%.
Polls have missed by about four points in a typical race and they miss together. How Tensor works →
Desk data: daily telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans
Sources
- Roster, official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Vugol Attention inputs, Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results, individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models attention-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 e1ed32603067 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Vugol Vector band: R · Anchored. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.
The four Vugol signals, side by side
They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.
- Vugol Vector
- Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
- Vugol Tensor
- How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
- Vugol Attention
- How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
- Vugol Pulse
- Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.