Cognetti +4Within margin of error
- Paige Cognetti Democratic: 52%
- Rob Bresnahan Republican: 48%
PA2026
U.S. House - PA-08 · Pennsylvania · 2026
General election · 2 on the November ballot · Incumbent running
Result
CalledFlip: R to DPaige Cognetti (D) won this race, defeating incumbent Rob Bresnahan.
- Paige CognettiDemocraticWinnerno count in the source
Also on the ballot, no count in the source: Rob Bresnahan (R).
- Called
- Called by Wikipedia editors, Nov 3, 9:46 PM ET (revision)
- Seat
- Changed party: held by Rob Bresnahan (R)
- Last updated
- Nov 7, 8:53 AM ET
Called it: hit Our locked call before polls closed was D; the winner is D. See every locked call
Unofficial until the state certifies the result.
Before the election
Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.
Race poll averageU.S. House - PA-08 · Pennsylvania
Paige Cognetti
52%
Rob Bresnahan
48%
Verified poll average · 1 poll · newest poll ended 2026-10-14
Verified polls Cognetti leads Bresnahan by 4.0 points in our average of verified polls.
1 verified poll averaged, newest ended 2026-10-14. Page updated 2026-11-14. Sources · What is validated
ExperimentalNews attention 58/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 8 days ago. How it works
On the November ballot (2)
From reported primary results, checked 2026-11-13. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.
Ballot source: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Pennsylvania&oldid=1385332593
Early vote in Pennsylvania
276,438 ballots cast statewide as of 2026-10-13 · registered Democrats 71.8%, Republicans 20.2%, unaffiliated 0.0%. Turnout by registration, not votes; never part of the rating. Full tracker →
Cognetti +4
- Paige Cognetti Democratic: 52%
- Rob Bresnahan Republican: Incumbent48%
Latest verified field polling
Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.
Cite / verify
Cite thishttps://vugol.me/races/US-PA-08
Sourcehttps://pollvault.substack.com/p/levee-math
Retrieved2026-11-14
Polling average Updates as polls arrive
52.0% Paige Cognetti48.0% Rob Bresnahan
Paige Cognetti (D)Rob Bresnahan (R)● verified poll · ○ quarantined poll · ◎ live average
Vugol Tensor
How far this poll average can miss · a range, not a prediction
Centre D+4.0. Four times in five the result lands between D+10.7 and R+2.7; nine in ten between D+12.6 and R+4.6. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: 78%.
Same inputs as the Vugol Tensor page: the verified polling average above (1 verified poll), plus how far polls have missed since 1998. In the backtest the plain poll average picked the wrong winner in about 11% of polled, mostly competitive races (11.2%, 946 races, 1998 to 2024), and polls miss together. Not a forecast guarantee. How Tensor works →
Campaign money (FEC)
Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Bresnahan | $6,519,139 | $5,839,568 | $732,724 | 2026-10-14 |
| Paige Cognetti | $7,502,359 | $7,258,687 | $243,672 | 2026-10-14 |
Ad spending (FEC)
What each campaign reported paying for ads, and what outside groups (super PACs, PACs and parties) reported spending for and against each candidate. Federal Election Commission filings, public domain.
| Candidate | Campaign's own ads | Outside groups for | Outside groups against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Bresnahan | $292K | $1.2M | $8.5M |
| Paige Cognetti | $80K | $2M | $4.1M |
Biggest outside spenders
- Rob Bresnahan. For: AMERICA FIRST AGRICULTURE ACTION INC. $360K, America PAC $343K, NO GOING BACK PAC INC. $340K. Against: HMP $4.8M, Giffords PAC $887K, TOMORROW TOGETHER $844K
- Paige Cognetti. For: CFFE PAC $541K, Progressive Turnout Project $502K, AB PAC $133K. Against: SAFETY & AFFORDABILITY PAC INC. $2.8M, REAL RESULTS PAC $382K, America PAC $335K
Outside groups: 24- and 48-hour independent expenditure reports for the 2026 primary and general, through 2026-11-09, each expenditure counted once after amendments; "ads" is TV, radio, digital and other media, and the rest is mail, phones, canvassing and similar. Campaign's own ads: TV, radio, digital, other media and ad production in the campaign committee's itemized payments, as the campaign described them, from the reports the FEC has processed (latest through 2026-06-30); newer reports appear as the FEC processes them. These are amounts committees reported paying, not airtime tracked by ad-monitoring firms, so very recent buys and future reservations may not show yet. Parser fec-ad-spend-1.0.0.
Results
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state’s official results.
Democratic primary
| Paige Cognetti won | 58,726 | 100.0% |
Republican primary
| Rob Bresnahan (incumbent) won | 38,075 | 100.0% |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-11-13 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-05-19, Primary election: U.S. House
- 2026-11-03, General election: U.S. House
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
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- An hour-by-hour guide to watching the 2026 midterms, and when we’ll know who controls Congress
- Sparks fly between Bresnahan, Cognetti in Pennsylvania House debate
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Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news
LabVugol Vector & Vugol Attention
Vugol Attention 58 Vugol Vector D · Open
Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
58OUT OF 100Moderate attention
Vugol Attention percentile90th
7-day momentum10 / 100
Source breadth50% of tracked
Candidate attention share · trailing 7 days0% D · 100% R
Rob Bresnahan (R) 100% · volume 42 / 7d
Vugol Vector
Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: medium
Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean
AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored
Completeness4 of 7 inputs (national, prior, incumbent, money) · missing: pres, pulse, poll
Evidenceno audit release · fundamentals only
Freshnessoldest input 2026-11-06 (8 days ago)
The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.
Desk data: daily telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans
Sources
- Roster, official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Vugol Attention inputs, Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results, individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models attention-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 82e4a117c1c7 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Vugol Vector band: Toss-up. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.
The four Vugol signals, side by side
They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.
- Vugol Vector
- Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
- Vugol Tensor
- How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
- Vugol Attention
- How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
- Vugol Pulse
- Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.