U.S. House — WA-05 · Washington · 2026
General election · 2 on the November ballot · Incumbent running
Model rating Leans Republican (Tilting) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.
1 poll on file from pollsters we have not verified yet — shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 5 of 7, updated today. Sources · What is validated
News attention 51/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 3 days ago. How it works
On the November ballot (2)
From reported primary results, checked 2026-09-29. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.
Ran in the primary (7)
Lost a primary or runoff for this seat — not on the November ballot.
Other filers (1)
Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.
Ballot source: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Washington&oldid=1377417979
Latest verified field polling
Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.
No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.
Polling average
1 poll on file for this race, all from quarantined (U-tier) pollsters — visible below, not yet averaged.
Campaign money (FEC)
Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael James Baumgartner | $1,738,226 | $976,007 | $953,784 | 2026-07-15 |
| Aaron Matthew Croft | $6,710 | $6,699 | $0 | 2026-04-21 |
| Ann Marie Danimus | $16,431 | $16,406 | $48 | 2026-07-15 |
| Bajun Mavalwalla | $128,135 | $113,369 | $14,766 | 2026-07-15 |
| Carmela Conroy | $396,217 | $334,896 | $74,463 | 2026-07-15 |
| David Womack | $131,462 | $95,895 | $35,567 | 2026-07-15 |
| Kevin Fagan | $45,258 | $45,258 | $0 | 2026-09-01 |
| Kyle B Usrey | $30,125 | $3,907 | $26,218 | 2026-07-15 |
| Nate Powell | $359,951 | $249,189 | $110,762 | 2026-07-15 |
| Richard Freudenberg | $32,889 | $12,671 | $20,218 | 2026-07-15 |
Results
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.
All-party primary
| Michael Baumgartner (incumbent) advanced | 96,791 | 47.4% |
| Carmela Conroy advanced | 38,487 | 18.8% |
| Nate Powell | 33,443 | 16.4% |
| Kevin Fagan | 9,048 | 4.4% |
| David Womack | 7,242 | 3.5% |
| Bajun Mavalwalla | 6,482 | 3.2% |
| Ann Marie Danimus | 2,920 | 1.4% |
| Richard Freudenberg | 2,866 | 1.4% |
| Matthew Hayes | 2,417 | 1.2% |
| Kyle Usrey | 2,274 | 1.1% |
| Michael McGarr | 1,152 | 0.6% |
| Andrew Bartleson | 915 | 0.4% |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-29 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-08-04 — Primary election: U.S. House
- 2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. House
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (4)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.
- Hypothetical matchup · Tavern Research (partisan) · 2026-05-18–2026-05-25 · n=578 · Michael Baumgartner (R) 53%, Generic Democrat 47% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Tavern Research (partisan) · 2026-05-18–2026-05-25 · n=578 · Michael Baumgartner (R) 54%, Bajun Mavalwalla (D) 46% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Tavern Research (partisan) · 2026-05-18–2026-05-25 · n=578 · Nate Powell (I) 53%, Michael Baumgartner (R) 47% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Tavern Research (partisan) · 2026-05-18–2026-05-25 · n=578 · Michael Baumgartner (R) 54%, David Womack (D) 46% · release
Signals (experimental)
Attention 51 Vector R · Tilting
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
Vugol Me Vector (experimental)
Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: medium
Daily precision telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans
Sources
- Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 456e96c29251 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Band: R · Tilting (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.