Who is ahead in the 2026 Washington's 5th District race?

Name: U.S. House - WA-05, Washington, Vugol Vector & Vugol Attention
Creator: Vugol Me
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Michael Baumgartner (R) won the WA-05 race with 52.2% of the vote. No verified poll average yet. The Vugol Vector model rates it Tilting (R), a snapshot of today, not a probability. Updated 2026-11-15.

Home / Races / Washington / U.S. House - WA-05

WA2026

U.S. House - WA-05 · Washington · 2026

General election · 2 on the November ballot · Incumbent running

VecR 32 · TiltingTenR 86%Att7

TV graphic Vugol race poll

Result

Called

Michael Baumgartner (R) won this race with 52.2% of the vote, 4.4 points ahead.

Michael BaumgartnerRepublicanWinner52.2%168,345 votes
Carmela ConroyDemocratic47.8%154,092 votes

Margin: 14,253 votes (4.4 points)
Reporting: 100% of the count in
Called: Called by Wikipedia editors, Nov 9, 8:43 PM ET (revision)
Last updated: Nov 14, 9:34 PM ET
Source: State results feed

Called it: hit Our locked call before polls closed was R; the winner is R. See every locked call

Unofficial until the state certifies the result.

Before the election

Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.

CandidatesU.S. House - WA-05 · Washington

Carmela Conroy

DEM

Michael James Baumgartner

RIncumbent

REP

No verified poll yet · Vugol Vector: R Tilting

R · TiltingVugol Vector model

Model rating Leans Republican (Tilting) on the Vugol Vector model, a snapshot of today, not a probability.

1 poll on file, none verified yet (pollster not verified or no public source), shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 4 of 7, updated yesterday. Page updated 2026-11-15. Sources · What is validated

ExperimentalNews attention 7/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated yesterday. How it works

On the Washington ballot, Nov 3, 2026 U.S. Representative (2-year term), District 5, 2 names on the official list. Election Day has passed; see the ballot as it was.Voting in Washington? Check your registration, get a mail ballot, find your polling place.

On the November ballot (2)

From reported primary results, checked 2026-11-15. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.

Michael James BaumgartnerU.S. House - WA-05 · FEC H4WA05234Republican IncumbentOn the ballotFEC raised$2.2M Carmela ConroyU.S. House - WA-05 · FEC H4WA05168DemocraticOn the ballotFEC raised$840K

Ran in the primary (7)

Lost a primary or runoff for this seat, not on the November ballot.

Ann Marie DanimusU.S. House - WA-05 · FEC H2WA05097IndependentLost primaryFEC raised$16K Bajun MavalwallaU.S. House - WA-05 · FEC H6WA05221DemocraticLost primaryFEC raised$132K David WomackU.S. House - WA-05 · FEC H6WA05213DemocraticLost primaryFEC raised$138K Kevin FaganU.S. House - WA-05 · FEC H6WA05247DemocraticLost primaryFEC raised$45K Kyle B UsreyU.S. House - WA-05 · FEC H6WA05254IndependentLost primaryFEC raised$30K Nate PowellU.S. House - WA-05 · FEC H6WA05239IndependentLost primaryFEC raised$392K Richard FreudenbergU.S. House - WA-05 · FEC H6WA05288DemocraticLost primaryFEC raised$42K

Other filers (1)

Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.

Aaron Matthew CroftU.S. House - WA-05 · FEC H6WA05197IndependentNot on the November ballotFEC raised$7K

Ballot source: https://results.votewa.gov/results/public/api/elections/washington/20261103/ballot-items

Latest verified field polling

Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.

none yet

No verified poll has been published for this race. The Vugol Vector call from our model is below, it is not a poll.

Polling average

no verified inputs yet

1 poll on file for this race, none verified yet (pollster not verified or no public source), visible below, not averaged.

Campaign money (FEC)

Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Through
Michael James Baumgartner Republican	$2,208,415	$1,710,065	$689,915	2026-10-14
Aaron Matthew Croft Independent	$6,710	$6,699	$0	2026-04-21
Ann Marie Danimus Independent	$16,431	$16,406	$48	2026-07-15
Bajun Mavalwalla Democratic	$131,632	$130,141	$1,490	2026-09-30
Carmela Conroy Democratic	$840,423	$763,371	$90,193	2026-10-14
David Womack Democratic	$138,141	$130,347	$7,793	2026-09-30
Kevin Fagan Democratic	$45,258	$45,258	$0	2026-09-01
Kyle B Usrey Independent	$30,125	$13,162	$16,963	2026-09-30
Nate Powell Independent	$392,186	$392,186	$0	2026-09-30
Richard Freudenberg Democratic	$41,764	$40,184	$1,579	2026-09-30

Ad spending (FEC)

What each campaign reported paying for ads, and what outside groups (super PACs, PACs and parties) reported spending for and against each candidate. Federal Election Commission filings, public domain.

Candidate	Campaign's own ads	Outside groups for	Outside groups against
Nate Powell Independent	$101K+ $1,193 mail · through 2026-09-30	$781K$575K ads · 2 groups	none reported
Michael James Baumgartner Republican	$128K+ $173K mail · through 2026-07-15	$45K$25K ads · 2 groups	$660K$641K ads · 2 groups
Carmela Conroy Democratic	$94K+ $4,760 mail · through 2026-07-15	none reported	$123K$123K ads · 2 groups
Bajun Mavalwalla Democratic	$71K+ $18K mail · through 2026-09-30	none reported	none reported
David Womack Democratic	$23K+ $3,269 mail · through 2026-09-30	none reported	none reported
Richard Freudenberg Democratic	$14K+ $2,795 mail · through 2026-09-30	none reported	none reported

Biggest outside spenders

Nate Powell. For: FIRE HOUSE PAC $740K, Together for Working People $41K
Michael James Baumgartner. For: MAGA INC. $25K, CIVIC RENEWAL FUND INC. $20K. Against: FIRE HOUSE PAC $396K, Together for Working People $264K
Carmela Conroy. Against: FIRE HOUSE PAC $96K, MAGA INC. $27K

Outside groups: 24- and 48-hour independent expenditure reports for the 2026 primary and general, through 2026-11-13, each expenditure counted once after amendments; "ads" is TV, radio, digital and other media, and the rest is mail, phones, canvassing and similar. Campaign's own ads: TV, radio, digital, other media and ad production in the campaign committee's itemized payments, as the campaign described them, from the reports the FEC has processed (latest through 2026-09-30); newer reports appear as the FEC processes them. These are amounts committees reported paying, not airtime tracked by ad-monitoring firms, so very recent buys and future reservations may not show yet. Parser fec-ad-spend-1.0.0.

Results

Vote counts from the state’s own results feed, read every minute while votes are counted. Counts change until the state certifies.

general election · state results feed, unofficial

Michael Baumgartner won	168,345	52.2%
Carmela Conroy	154,092	47.8%

Michael Baumgartner leads by 14,253 votes. 100% of reporting units counted.

All-party primary

Michael Baumgartner (incumbent) advanced	96,791	47.4%
Carmela Conroy advanced	38,487	18.8%
Nate Powell	33,443	16.4%
Kevin Fagan	9,048	4.4%
David Womack	7,242	3.5%
Bajun Mavalwalla	6,482	3.2%
Ann Marie Danimus	2,920	1.4%
Richard Freudenberg	2,866	1.4%
Matthew Hayes	2,417	1.2%
Kyle Usrey	2,274	1.1%
Michael McGarr	1,152	0.6%
Andrew Bartleson	915	0.4%

Source: the state's official results feed, retrieved 2026-11-15 · parser state-feed-1.0.0

Key dates

Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.

2026-08-04, Primary election: U.S. House
2026-11-03, General election: U.S. House

Source: FEC election dates (public domain).

Primary and hypothetical polls (4)

Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to that article revision and, where we know it, to the pollster's own site.

Hypothetical matchup · Tavern Research (partisan) · 2026-05-18–2026-05-25 · n=578 · Michael Baumgartner (R) 53%,Generic Democrat 47% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Tavern Research (partisan) · 2026-05-18–2026-05-25 · n=578 · Michael Baumgartner (R) 54%,Bajun Mavalwalla (D) 46% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Tavern Research (partisan) · 2026-05-18–2026-05-25 · n=578 · Nate Powell (I) 53%,Michael Baumgartner (R) 47% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Tavern Research (partisan) · 2026-05-18–2026-05-25 · n=578 · Michael Baumgartner (R) 54%,David Womack (D) 46% · release

In the news

These House and Senate midterm races don't have winners yetCBS News · Nov 6
Final rating changes: 63 races move toward Democrats, 1 toward RepublicansRoll Call · Oct 31
House Democrats add eight seats to midterm target map month before election dayNew York Post · Oct 2
House Democrats grow more bullish about midterms as target list expandsRoll Call · Oct 2

Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news

Lab

Vugol Vector & Vugol Attention

Vugol Attention 7 Vugol Vector R · Tilting

Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.

Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)

Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly

attention-1.0.0

7OUT OF 100Low attention

Vugol Attention percentile0th

7-day momentum23 / 100

Source breadth0% of tracked

Vugol Vector

Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: medium

vector-1.1.0

Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean

AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored

Completeness4 of 7 inputs (national, prior, incumbent, money) · missing: pres, pulse, poll

Evidenceno audit release · fundamentals only

Freshnessoldest input 2026-11-14 (yesterday)

The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.

Vugol Tensor

How far this call can miss · a range, not a prediction · no verified poll here, so the range is wider and untested

tensor-1.0.0

Centre R+8.0. Four times in five the result lands between D+1.5 and R+17.4; nine in ten between D+4.1 and R+20.0. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: 14%.

Polls have missed by about four points in a typical race and they miss together. How Tensor works →

Desk data: daily telemetry

Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans

Sources

Roster, official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
Vugol Attention inputs, Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
Polls and results, individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
Models attention-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 484bfdeb095f · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).

Vugol Vector band: R · Tilting. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.

The four Vugol signals, side by side

They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.

Vugol Vector: Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
Vugol Tensor: How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
Vugol Attention: How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
Vugol Pulse: Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.