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Live data · Vugol Attention model attention-1.0.0 · Vugol Vector vector-1.1.0 · Vugol Tensor tensor-1.0.0 · Brief model brief-1.0.0

Daily digest: if the election were held today

Every morning: who would control the Senate, House and governorships, what moved since yesterday, new verified polls and your state. Free.

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Candidates, verified polls and race ratings, each number with its source. Published aggregates are reproducible from a versioned model and a stored input snapshot; community responses never enter them. No sponsorships, no paid ratings, no advertising.

Vugol Attention, the Vugol Vector and the Vugol Tensor are Vugol Me signals, not polls. Vugol Pulse is our own daily question and stays out of every average.

Candidates, verified polls and race ratings, each number with its source. Published aggregates are reproducible from a versioned model and a stored input snapshot; community responses never enter them. No sponsorships, no paid ratings, no advertising.Vugol Attention, the Vugol Vector and the Vugol Tensor are Vugol Me signals, not polls. Vugol Pulse is our own daily question and stays out of every average.
Support: hello@vugol.me© 2026 Vugol.Me. All rights reserved.
  1. Generic ballot · poll average

    Voters favor Democrats for Congress by 8.4 points

    49.6% Democratic, 41.2% Republican · average of 12 pollsters' latest polls · as of 2026-10-26
    See every race →If today were Election Day →
    D+8.4generic ballot
  2. If held today · Vugol Vector · Senate

    Democrats would control the Senate: D 53, R 47

    2 close calls · range D 52–54, R 46–48 · verified polls, proprietary model elsewhere
    See every race →If today were Election Day →
  3. New audit release · New HampshireNew Hampshire

    Ayotte leads Warmington by 9 in New Hampshire

    55% to 45% · release #2 · as of 2026-10-10
    See the poll →If today were Election Day →
    9pt margin
  4. Loudest race in the countryOregon

    All eyes on Oregon's 5th District race

    News attention 74 of 100 (news coverage and Wikipedia views), not a measure of support
    Read the race →If today were Election Day →
    74attention
  5. Senate race to watchMaine

    The Maine Senate race draws the most attention

    Vugol Attention 70 of 100 · leans Democratic (tilting)
    Read the race →If today were Election Day →
    70attention
  6. Governor's race to watchSouth Carolina

    The South Carolina Governor race draws the most attention

    Vugol Attention 65 of 100 · leans Republican (tilting)
    Read the race →If today were Election Day →
    65attention
Headlines refresh every 3 hours · next 18:00 UTC
  • 35 2026 U.S. Senate races tracked
  • 440 2026 U.S. House races tracked
  • 39 2026 governor's races
  • 399 statewide candidates
  • 2,188 counties' races on record
  • 173,540 candidates profiled, federal to local · Claim yours
35 2026 U.S. Senate races tracked

Candidate depth. Verified polling. Reproducible models. One site. ✦ Ask me anything

or

  • 173,540candidate profilesRecord, money and sources, from Senate to school board
  • 35 Senate440 House39 Governors6162026 races trackedHouse includes 5 non-voting delegate seats; governors include 3 territories
  • AI2,220verified pollsOnly from pollsters we have checked
  • Publishedinputs, versions and the Tensor paperWhat you can re-check, and what stays ours

Every number links to its source. How to read a race ?

Press access (illustration)

Vugol Pulse · today’s question · not a scientific poll

Should the White House be allowed to bar specific news outlets from its press events?

Answering confirms you’re 18 or older. Results show after you answer.

Election Day 2024 vs. nowSince you last voted
  • Regular4.28
    Gas, gallon$3.07 → $4.28▲
  • Milk, gallon$4.14 → $4.11▼
  • Eggs, dozen$3.65 → $2.27▼
  • Bread, pound$1.92 → $1.83▼
All 32 numbers →Photo credits
Today’s Vugol Vector

If the election were held today

Full breakdown
U.S. SenateD 53·R 47Democrats would control the U.S. Senate2 close calls · range D 52–54, R 46–48U.S. House
U.S. House seat chart by race ratingHouse seats by race rating: Democrats favored in 227 (152 anchored, 44 held, 31 tilting), 31 toss-ups, Republicans favored in 177 (76 anchored, 56 held, 45 tilting), 0 unrated. 218 seats make a majority.218for majority
227 D31 toss-up177 R
Each dot a seat, by race rating
D 240·R 195Democrats would control the U.S. House31 close calls · range D 227–258, R 177–208
GovernorsAlaska: DemocraticMaine: DemocraticVermont: DemocraticNew Hampshire: RepublicanWashington: DemocraticIdaho: RepublicanMontana: RepublicanNorth Dakota: RepublicanMinnesota: DemocraticIllinois: DemocraticWisconsin: DemocraticMichigan: DemocraticNew York: DemocraticMassachusetts: DemocraticOregon: DemocraticNevada: DemocraticWyoming: RepublicanSouth Dakota: RepublicanIowa: DemocraticIndiana: RepublicanOhio: DemocraticPennsylvania: DemocraticNew Jersey: DemocraticConnecticut: DemocraticRhode Island: DemocraticCalifornia: DemocraticUtah: RepublicanColorado: DemocraticNebraska: RepublicanMissouri: RepublicanKentucky: DemocraticWest Virginia: RepublicanVirginia: DemocraticMaryland: DemocraticDelaware: DemocraticArizona: DemocraticNew Mexico: DemocraticKansas: RepublicanArkansas: RepublicanTennessee: RepublicanNorth Carolina: DemocraticSouth Carolina: RepublicanOklahoma: RepublicanLouisiana: RepublicanMississippi: RepublicanAlabama: RepublicanGeorgia: RepublicanHawaii: DemocraticTexas: RepublicanFlorida: RepublicanD 28·R 22Democrats would hold most governorships1 close call · range D 28–29, R 21–22

The Vugol Vector calls every 2026 race for the side ahead today: verified polling where it exists, otherwise our proprietary ensemble model. Close calls are toss-ups decided by the slightest edge. A snapshot of today, not a probability.

◀ DEMOCRATIC SIDEREPUBLICAN SIDE ▶HOUSE240195SENATE5347GOVERNORS2822
The call

Vugol Vector

Who is ahead in every race if the vote were held today: verified polls where they exist, our model where they do not.

Full breakdown →
President’s approvalDonald Trump
50
33.4% approve 63.2% disapproveUnderwater by 29.8 points
2,083,598ballots already cast in Florida · early vote, as of 2026-10-25
  • 41%Democrats849,519
  • 39%Republicans805,779
  • 21%Other / none428,300

By registered party, not by how they voted.

What this means →
1,544,673ballots already cast in North Carolina · early vote, as of 2026-10-25
  • 41%Democrats640,473
  • 24%Republicans367,908
  • 35%Other / none536,292

By registered party, not by how they voted.

70% of 2022’s whole early vote (2,198,550)

What this means →
276,438ballots already cast in Pennsylvania · early vote, as of 2026-10-13
  • 72%Democrats198,421
  • 20%Republicans55,830
  • 8%Other / none22,187

By registered party, not by how they voted.

What this means →

What changed

  • Oct 23PollSource ↗ActiVote poll in New York Governor: Kathy Hochul (D) 59%, Bruce Blakeman (R) 41%
  • Oct 22PollSource ↗ActiVote poll in Illinois Governor: JB Pritzker (D) 59%, Darren Bailey (R) 41%
  • Oct 22Verified pollSource ↗InsiderAdvantage poll in Ohio Senate: Sherrod Brown (D) 47%, Jon Husted (R) 44%
  • Oct 25NewsEl-Sayed slams Trump's Canada tariff cuts as 'arbitrary' midterms ploy (NewsNation)
  • Oct 25NewsGucci-clad Nicki Minaj joins Trump in Michigan, as aide jokes rapper is in for huge White House job (New York Post)
The 2026 map

Where every race leans

Full races index
35 states with a race · select a state for its races
Alaska: Alaska Senate, Toss-up, Vugol Attention 62 of 100AKAtt 62Maine: Maine Senate, D · Tilting, Vugol Attention 70 of 100MEAtt 70Vermont: No senate race in 2026VTNew Hampshire: New Hampshire Senate, D · Held, Vugol Attention 59 of 100NHAtt 59Washington: No senate race in 2026WAIdaho: Idaho Senate, R · Anchored, Vugol Attention 14 of 100IDAtt 14Montana: Montana Senate, R · Tilting, Vugol Attention 9 of 100MTAtt 9North Dakota: No senate race in 2026NDMinnesota: Minnesota Senate, D · Tilting, Vugol Attention 34 of 100MNAtt 34Illinois: Illinois Senate, D · Held, Vugol Attention 60 of 100ILAtt 60Wisconsin: No senate race in 2026WIMichigan: Michigan Senate, D · Tilting, Vugol Attention 3 of 100MIAtt 3New York: No senate race in 2026NYMassachusetts: Massachusetts Senate, D · Anchored, Vugol Attention 46 of 100MAAtt 46Oregon: Oregon Senate, D · Held, Vugol Attention 2 of 100ORAtt 2Nevada: No senate race in 2026NVWyoming: Wyoming Senate, R · Anchored, Vugol Attention 4 of 100WYAtt 4South Dakota: South Dakota Senate, R · Held, Vugol Attention 2 of 100SDAtt 2Iowa: Iowa Senate, Toss-up, Vugol Attention 2 of 100IAAtt 2Indiana: No senate race in 2026INOhio: Ohio Senate, D · Tilting, Vugol Attention 53 of 100OHAtt 53Pennsylvania: No senate race in 2026PANew Jersey: New Jersey Senate, D · Held, Vugol Attention 5 of 100NJAtt 5Connecticut: No senate race in 2026CTRhode Island: Rhode Island Senate, D · Anchored, Vugol Attention 15 of 100RIAtt 15California: No senate race in 2026CAUtah: No senate race in 2026UTColorado: Colorado Senate, D · Held, Vugol Attention 56 of 100COAtt 56Nebraska: Nebraska Senate, R · Anchored, Vugol Attention 33 of 100NEAtt 33Missouri: No senate race in 2026MOKentucky: Kentucky Senate, R · Held, Vugol Attention 51 of 100KYAtt 51West Virginia: West Virginia Senate, R · Anchored, Vugol Attention 6 of 100WVAtt 6Virginia: Virginia Senate, D · Held, Vugol Attention 32 of 100VAAtt 32Maryland: No senate race in 2026MDDelaware: Delaware Senate, D · Held, Vugol Attention 3 of 100DEAtt 3Arizona: No senate race in 2026AZNew Mexico: New Mexico Senate, D · Anchored, Vugol Attention 61 of 100NMAtt 61Kansas: Kansas Senate, D · Tilting, Vugol Attention 59 of 100KSAtt 59Arkansas: Arkansas Senate, R · Held, Vugol Attention 8 of 100ARAtt 8Tennessee: Tennessee Senate, R · Held, Vugol Attention 1 of 100TNAtt 1North Carolina: North Carolina Senate, D · Held, Vugol Attention 54 of 100NCAtt 54South Carolina: South Carolina Senate, R · Tilting, Vugol Attention 60 of 100SCAtt 60District of Columbia: No senate race in 2026DCOklahoma: Oklahoma Senate, R · Held, Vugol Attention 54 of 100OKAtt 54Louisiana: Louisiana Senate, R · Tilting, Vugol Attention 41 of 100LAAtt 41Mississippi: Mississippi Senate, R · Tilting, Vugol Attention 34 of 100MSAtt 34Alabama: Alabama Senate, R · Held, Vugol Attention 4 of 100ALAtt 4Georgia: Georgia Senate, D · Held, Vugol Attention 43 of 100GAAtt 43Hawaii: No senate race in 2026HITexas: Texas Senate, D · Tilting, Vugol Attention 58 of 100TXAtt 58Florida: Florida Senate, R · Tilting, Vugol Attention 2 of 100FLAtt 2
Democratic leanRepublican lean Purple = toss-up · grey = not yet rated · Att = Vugol Attention score (0–100), not support

Colored by the Vugol Vector: the verified polling average where one exists, otherwise our proprietary model. A snapshot of today, not a probability. What the Vugol Vector is

VUGOL TENSORchance of controlSenate 68% DHouse 97% DGovernors 88% D
SenateHouseGovernors
HOW SUREtypical miss~4 pts a raceshared across races · 14 cycles, 1998–2024
RANGES80% and 90%for every raceno tilt · tensor-1.0.0
The doubt

Vugol Tensor

How far that call can miss: ranges for every race and the chance each side controls each chamber. No partisan tilt, and a modelled signal, not a poll.

See the ranges →If it comes true: who would lead →
✦
Search candidates by name →

Tracking 35 U.S. Senate, 440 U.S. House and 39 governor races in 2026. Every poll we publish links to its source.

Loudest right now

Most-watched races

All 616 races
ORU.S. HouseD · TiltingOregon's 5th DistrictOR-05 · OregonVugol VectorVecD 41 · TiltingTenD 92%Att74News attention 74/100Details → · updated 2026-10-25 Vugol Pulse poll
MEU.S. HouseD · TiltingMaine's 2nd DistrictME-02 · MaineVerified pollsVecD 35 · TiltingTenD 80%Att73News attention 73/100Details → · updated 2026-10-25 Vugol Pulse poll
AZStatewideD · TiltingArizona Attorney GeneralStatewide raceVugol VectorVecD 22 · TiltingTenD 78%Att72News attention 72/100Details → · updated 2026-10-25 Vugol Pulse poll
MEU.S. SenateD · TiltingMaine SenateStatewide raceVerified pollsVecD 30 · TiltingTenD 65%Att70Polling margin, last 30 days: Even → D+2Polls, 30 days: D+2News attention 70/100Details → · updated 2026-10-25 Vugol Pulse poll
COStatewideD · AnchoredColorado Attorney GeneralStatewide raceVugol VectorVecD 70 · AnchoredTenD >99%Att69News attention 69/100Details → · updated 2026-10-25 Vugol Pulse poll
NYU.S. HouseD · HeldNew York's 4th DistrictNY-04 · New YorkVugol VectorVecD 48 · HeldTenD 95%Att68News attention 68/100Details → · updated 2026-10-25 Vugol Pulse poll
From outlets across the spectrum

In the news

All election news
NationalNear me (ZIP)My races
  • NewsNationEl-Sayed slams Trump's Canada tariff cuts as 'arbitrary' midterms ployOct 25
  • New York PostGucci-clad Nicki Minaj joins Trump in Michigan, as aide jokes rapper is in for huge White House jobOct 25
  • CBS NewsFull transcript of "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan," Oct. 25, 2026Oct 25Dan SullivanAlaska Senate
  • NewsNationWatch live: Decision Desk ‘26 Midterm Preview powered by 2WAY and The HillOct 25
  • New York PostKamala Harris jokes about cursing out TV in rage at Trump after 2024 loss: ‘We’ve been depressed and angry’Oct 25John E SununuNew Hampshire Senate
  • NBC NewsMichigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer says America is ready to elect a womanOct 25JB PritzkerIllinois Governor
Presidential approval · our average33.4% approve63.2% disapprove
American Research Institute29%67%
Verasight34%62%
Ipsos31%66%
Siena34%60%
AP NORC36%64%
Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research36%64%
Survey Monkey34%66%
RMG Research43%56%
Navigator Research36%62%
Focaldata34%59%
Average of 6 pollsters · net −29.8 · as of 2026-10-26
Newest first

Latest polls

All polls
New York Governor · ActiVoteKathy Hochul (D) 59%41% Bruce Blakeman (R)fielded 10-01–2026-10-23 · n=400 · ±4.9ppIllinois Governor · ActiVoteJB Pritzker (D) 59%41% Darren Bailey (R)fielded 10-02–2026-10-22 · n=400 · ±4.9ppOhio Senate · InsiderAdvantage · verifiedSherrod Brown (D) 47%44% Jon Husted (R)fielded 10-21–2026-10-22 · n=1,200 · ±2.8ppMississippi Senate · Change Research · verifiedCindy Hyde-Smith (R) 43%40% Scott Colom (D)fielded 10-21–2026-10-22 · n=842 · ±3.4pp
Fresh numbers

Recently updated

See all
CAStatewideD · AnchoredCalifornia State ComptrollerStatewide raceVugol VectorVecD 71 · AnchoredTenD >99%Att67News attention 67/100Details → · updated 2026-10-25 Vugol Pulse poll
NMStatewideD · HeldNew Mexico Attorney GeneralStatewide raceVugol VectorVecD 61 · HeldTenD 98%Att67News attention 67/100Details → · updated 2026-10-25 Vugol Pulse poll
NCU.S. HouseR · TiltingNorth Carolina's 9th DistrictNC-09 · North CarolinaVugol VectorVecR 28 · TiltingTenR 83%Att66News attention 66/100Details → · updated 2026-10-25 Vugol Pulse poll

Daily digest: if the election were held today

Every morning: who would control the Senate, House and governorships, what moved since yesterday, new verified polls and your state. Free.

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Not scientific · one vote per account

What voters here are saying

Vugol race polls, open to anyone, not scientific, and never used in our numbers.

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Vote in your own raceSearch your state or district and cast a vote in its Vugol race poll. Results are shown live and never feed the verified averages.Find my race →