U.S. House — CA-48 · California · 2026
General election · 2 on the certified November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)
Model rating Leans Republican (Tilting) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.
No polls on file for this race. Model inputs: 3 of 7, updated today. Sources · What is validated
News attention 38/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated today. How it works
On the November ballot (2)
Certified by the state on 2026-08-27, checked 2026-09-29.
Not on the certified ballot (9)
Filed or ran for this seat, but not on the state’s certified list for November.
Official source: https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/statewide-elections/2026-general/cert-list-candidates.pdf
Latest verified field polling
Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.
No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.
Polling average
No polls on file for this race yet. See latest polls across every race.
Campaign money (FEC)
Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abel Chavez | $472,665 | $461,899 | $10,766 | 2026-06-30 |
| Ammar Campa-Najjar | $4,772 | $4,832 | $0 | 2025-02-18 |
| Anuj Dixit | $465,937 | $297,522 | $168,415 | 2026-06-30 |
| Brandon Riker | $2,265,170 | $2,243,945 | $21,225 | 2026-06-30 |
| Corinna Contreras | $35,600 | $35,600 | $0 | 2026-06-30 |
| Curtis Morrison | $35,553 | $35,553 | $0 | 2026-02-23 |
| Ferguson Porter | $62,492 | $40,955 | $21,538 | 2025-09-30 |
| Jim Desmond | $2,258,836 | $1,028,804 | $1,230,031 | 2026-06-30 |
| Marc Iannarino | $45,314 | $45,314 | $0 | 2026-05-21 |
| Marni von Wilpert | $2,174,872 | $1,349,861 | $825,012 | 2026-06-30 |
| Suzanne Marie Till | $6,854 | $6,854 | $0 | 2025-12-04 |
Signals (experimental)
Attention 38 Vector R · Tilting
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
Vugol Me Vector (experimental)
Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: medium
Daily precision telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans
Sources
- Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 22214975a89c · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Band: R · Tilting (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.