U.S. House — IA-01 · Iowa · 2026
General election · 3 on the certified November ballot · Incumbent running
Model rating Leans Democratic (Open) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.
2 polls on file from pollsters we have not verified yet — shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 4 of 7, updated today. Sources · What is validated
News attention 51/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 3 days ago. How it works
On the November ballot (3)
Certified by the state on 2026-08-19, checked 2026-09-29.
Not on the certified ballot (3)
Filed or ran for this seat, but not on the state’s certified list for November.
Official source: https://sos.iowa.gov/sites/default/files/2026-08/2026%20General%20-%20Candidate%20List%20Database%20-%20All%20Elections_1.pdf
Latest verified field polling
Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.
No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.
Polling average
2 polls on file for this race, all from quarantined (U-tier) pollsters — visible below, not yet averaged.
Campaign money (FEC)
Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariannette Jane Miller-Meeks | $7,208,271 | $2,890,534 | $4,691,481 | 2026-06-30 |
| Christina Bohannan | $7,051,745 | $1,733,644 | $5,425,318 | 2026-06-30 |
| David Alfred Pautsch | $58,265 | $54,541 | $10,854 | 2026-06-30 |
| Michael Bridgford | $189,523 | $64,664 | $124,859 | 2026-06-30 |
| Taylor Wettach | $697,874 | $697,874 | $0 | 2026-03-20 |
| Travis Terrell | $20,937 | $14,804 | $5,007 | 2026-05-13 |
Results
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.
Democratic primary · official results
| Christina Bohannan won | 42,862 | 81.5% |
| Travis Terrell | 9,761 | 18.5% |
Republican primary · official results
| Mariannette Miller-Meeks (incumbent) won | 35,182 | 71.5% |
| David Pautsch | 13,957 | 28.4% |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-29 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0
In the news
- As Republicans break with Trump, one gets a brushback: From the Politics Desk
- Vulnerable Iowa Republicans rally around Trump's Iowa steel plant announcement
- Trump announces plans for largest steel plant in U.S. history to be built in Iowa
- Republicans dump cash into red states as they try to hold the line against Democrats in the midterms
Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news
Signals (experimental)
Attention 51 Vector D · Open
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
Vugol Me Vector (experimental)
Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: medium
Daily precision telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans
Sources
- Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 469a1f51eeeb · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Band: Toss-up (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.