National tracker
Generic congressional ballot
Would voters pick the Democratic or the Republican candidate for the U.S. House? Every national generic-ballot poll for the 2026 midterms, with our own running average.
51.3%Democrats
42.7%Republicans
D+8.6Lead
Democrats Republicans · lines are the weekly average, dots are individual polls
Every poll (791, newest 150 shown)
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | MoE | Democrats | Republicans | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipsos for Reuters | 2026-10-28 – 2026-11-02 | 1,357 RV | ±2.7 | 49% | 42% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| Ipsos for Reuters | 2026-10-29 – 2026-11-02 | 1,212 LV | ±2.8 | 52% | 44% | pollster's site · source |
| John Zogby Strategies unverified, not averaged | 2026-11-01 – 2026-11-02 | 1,001 LV | ±3.1 | 53% | 47% | via Wikipedia |
| Financial Times for Focaldata unverified, not averaged | 2026-10-30 – 2026-11-01 | 2,090 LV | ±2.1 | 52% | 45% | via Wikipedia |
| Financial Times for Focaldata unverified, not averaged | 2026-10-30 – 2026-11-01 | 2,163 RV | ±2.1 | 50% | 43% | via Wikipedia |
| Financial Times for Focaldata unverified, not averaged | 2026-10-30 – 2026-11-01 | 2,444 A | ±2 | 47% | 41% | via Wikipedia |
| Big Data Poll unverified, not averaged | 2026-10-27 – 2026-10-30 | 3,214 LV | ±1.7 | 51% | 39% | via Wikipedia |
| Big Data Poll unverified, not averaged | 2026-10-27 – 2026-10-30 | 3,418 RV | ±1.7 | 50% | 38% | via Wikipedia |
| Public Opinion Strategies for Hart Research Associates (D) partisan unverified, not averaged | 2026-10-28 – 2026-10-30 | 1,000 RV | ±3.1 | 52% | 45% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| TIPP Insights for I&I partisan unverified, not averaged | 2026-10-27 – 2026-10-30 | 1,158 LV | ±2.9 | 52% | 42% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| YouGov | 2026-10-27 – 2026-10-30 | 3,915 LV | ±1.6 | 53% | 44% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| Ipsos | 2026-10-20 – 2026-10-28 | 1,209 LV | ±2.8 | 50% | 44% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| YouGov for Tufts University | 2026-10-23 – 2026-10-27 | 499 LV | ±4.4 | 52% | 40% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| YouGov for Tufts University | 2026-10-23 – 2026-10-27 | 1,000 A | ±3.1 | 47% | 36% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| Emerson College | 2026-10-24 – 2026-10-26 | 1,000 LV | ±3.1 | 52% | 42% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| Ipsos for Reuters | 2026-10-22 – 2026-10-26 | 1,280 RV | ±2.7 | 50% | 41% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| Ipsos for Reuters | 2026-10-22 – 2026-10-26 | 1,164 LV | ±2.9 | 53% | 44% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| Marist University for NPR / PBS | 2026-10-19 – 2026-10-26 | 1,289 RV | ±2.7 | 52% | 42% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| YouGov for The Economist | 2026-10-23 – 2026-10-26 | 1,263 LV | ±2.8 | 50% | 41% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| YouGov for The Economist | 2026-10-23 – 2026-10-26 | 1,430 RV | ±2.6 | 46% | 40% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| YouGov for The Economist | 2026-10-23 – 2026-10-26 | 1,123 LV | ±2.9 | 52% | 41% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| Cygnal for Republican-affiliated (as labeled by source) partisan unverified, not averaged | 2026-10-23 – 2026-10-24 | 1,500 LV | ±2.5 | 52% | 43% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| Echelon Insights unverified, not averaged | 2026-10-16 – 2026-10-23 | 3,644 LV | ±1.6 | 51% | 46% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| YouGov for CBS | 2026-10-21 – 2026-10-23 | 1,749 LV | ±2.3 | 53% | 45% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| Prolific unverified, not averaged | 2026-10-21 – 2026-10-22 | 713 LV | ±3.7 | 53% | 42% | via Wikipedia |
| Prolific unverified, not averaged | 2026-10-21 – 2026-10-22 | 1,118 RV | ±2.9 | 50% | 40% | via Wikipedia |
| ActiVote unverified, not averaged | 2026-10-15 – 2026-10-21 | 1,000 LV | ±3.1 | 53% | 47% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| Clarity Campaign Labs unverified, not averaged | 2026-10-15 – 2026-10-21 | 1,016 LV | ±3.1 | 52% | 44% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| Financial Times for Focaldata unverified, not averaged | 2026-10-16 – 2026-10-20 | 1,594 LV | ±2.5 | 53% | 44% | via Wikipedia |
| Financial Times for Focaldata unverified, not averaged | 2026-10-16 – 2026-10-20 | 1,845 A | ±2.3 | 49% | 40% | via Wikipedia |
| Financial Times for Focaldata unverified, not averaged | 2026-10-16 – 2026-10-20 | 1,648 RV | ±2.4 | 51% | 41% | via Wikipedia |
| Morning Consult | 2026-10-13 – 2026-10-20 | 2,050 RV | ±2.2 | 48% | 42% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| The Rainey Center unverified, not averaged | 2026-10-14 – 2026-10-20 | 1,279 RV | ±2.7 | 52% | 44% | via Wikipedia |
| YouGov for The Economist | 2026-10-19 – 2026-10-20 | 1,312 LV | ±2.7 | 50% | 43% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| YouGov for The Economist | 2026-10-19 – 2026-10-20 | 1,496 RV | ±2.5 | 45% | 40% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| YouGov for The Economist | 2026-10-19 – 2026-10-20 | 1,179 LV | ±2.9 | 52% | 43% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| YouGov for Pennsylvania State University | 2026-10-14 – 2026-10-20 | 724 LV | ±3.6 | 47% | 43% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| Ipsos for Reuters | 2026-10-16 – 2026-10-19 | 1,679 A | ±2.4 | 40% | 29% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| Ipsos for Reuters | 2026-10-16 – 2026-10-19 | 1,279 RV | ±2.7 | 47% | 35% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| Siena University for The New York Times unverified, not averaged | 2026-10-12 – 2026-10-19 | 3,494 RV | ±1.7 | 51% | 39% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| Siena University for The New York Times unverified, not averaged | 2026-10-12 – 2026-10-19 | 3,494 LV | ±1.7 | 52% | 41% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| CNN/SSRS | 2026-10-15 – 2026-10-18 | 1,206 RV | ±2.8 | 49% | 39% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| Public Opinion Strategies for Hart Research Associates (D) partisan unverified, not averaged | 2026-10-14 – 2026-10-18 | 1,000 RV | ±3.1 | 52% | 45% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| ActiVote unverified, not averaged | 2026-10-04 – 2026-10-14 | 1,000 LV | ±3.1 | 53% | 47% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| RMG Research unverified, not averaged | 2026-10-13 – 2026-10-14 | 2,000 RV | ±2.2 | 51% | 43% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| Ipsos for The Washington Post / ABC News | 2026-10-09 – 2026-10-13 | 2,032 LV | ±2.2 | 52% | 44% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| Shaw & Co. Research for Beacon Research (D) partisan unverified, not averaged | 2026-10-09 – 2026-10-12 | 1,202 RV | ±2.8 | 54% | 45% | via Wikipedia |
| SurveyMonkey unverified, not averaged | 2026-09-28 – 2026-10-12 | 17,649 RV | ±0.7 | 55% | 45% | via Wikipedia |
| YouGov for The Economist | 2026-10-10 – 2026-10-12 | 1,403 RV | ±2.6 | 46% | 39% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| Morning Consult | 2026-10-05 – 2026-10-11 | 17,654 LV | ±0.7 | 50% | 43% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| Cygnal for Republican-affiliated (as labeled by source) partisan unverified, not averaged | 2026-10-07 – 2026-10-10 | 1,500 LV | ±2.5 | 51% | 42% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| TrueDot unverified, not averaged | 2026-10-05 – 2026-10-09 | 974 LV | ±3.1 | 49% | 42% | via Wikipedia |
| Focaldata unverified, not averaged | 2026-10-02 – 2026-10-05 | 2,201 LV | ±2.1 | 52% | 44% | via Wikipedia |
| Ipsos for Reuters | 2026-09-30 – 2026-10-05 | 3,526 RV | ±1.7 | 44% | 37% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| YouGov for The Economist | 2026-10-02 – 2026-10-05 | 995 LV | ±3.1 | 52% | 40% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| YouGov for The Economist | 2026-10-02 – 2026-10-05 | 1,173 LV | ±2.9 | 51% | 40% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| Morning Consult | 2026-09-28 – 2026-10-04 | 17,659 LV | ±0.7 | 50% | 43% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| Pew Research Center unverified, not averaged | 2026-09-28 – 2026-10-04 | 3,917 RV | ±1.6 | 44% | 36% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| ActiVote unverified, not averaged | 2026-09-22 – 2026-10-02 | 1,000 LV | ±3.1 | 52% | 48% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| Cygnal for Republican-affiliated (as labeled by source) partisan unverified, not averaged | 2026-10-01 – 2026-10-02 | 1,500 LV | ±2.5 | 52% | 43% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| YouGov - CBS News unverified, not averaged | 2026-09-30 – 2026-10-02 | 1,572 LV | ±2.5 | 54% | 45% | pollster's site · source |
| Centerline Research & Strategy unverified, not averaged | 2026-09-26 – 2026-10-01 | 930 LV | ±3.2 | 50% | 42% | via Wikipedia |
| TIPP Insights for I&I partisan unverified, not averaged | 2026-09-29 – 2026-10-01 | 1,328 RV | ±2.7 | 46% | 42% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| Rasmussen Reports for Republican-affiliated (as labeled by source) partisan | 2026-09-24 – 2026-09-30 | 1,794 LV | ±2.3 | 47% | 44% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| HarrisX for Harvard / Harris Poll unverified, not averaged | 2026-09-26 – 2026-09-28 | 2,200 RV | ±2.1 | 50% | 50% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| The Independent Center for AlphaROC unverified, not averaged | 2026-09-25 – 2026-09-28 | 1,000 A | ±3.1 | 43% | 37% | via Wikipedia |
| YouGov for The Economist | 2026-09-25 – 2026-09-28 | 1,003 LV | ±3.1 | 53% | 38% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| YouGov for The Economist | 2026-09-25 – 2026-09-28 | 1,423 RV | ±2.6 | 45% | 37% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| Morning Consult | 2026-09-21 – 2026-09-27 | 18,786 LV | ±0.7 | 50% | 43% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| Quinnipiac University | 2026-09-24 – 2026-09-27 | 1,032 RV | ±3.1 | 51% | 39% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| Angus Reid Global unverified, not averaged | 2026-09-19 – 2026-09-25 | 1,205 A | ±2.8 | 45% | 34% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| Angus Reid Global unverified, not averaged | 2026-09-19 – 2026-09-25 | 1,041 RV | ±3 | 49% | 35% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| Angus Reid Global unverified, not averaged | 2026-09-19 – 2026-09-25 | 919 RV | ±3.2 | 56% | 40% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| Change Research for Democratic-affiliated (as labeled by source) partisan | 2026-09-15 – 2026-09-24 | 2,021 RV | ±2.2 | 46% | 39% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| GBAO for Democratic-affiliated (as labeled by source) partisan unverified, not averaged | 2026-09-17 – 2026-09-24 | 2,000 RV | ±2.2 | 50% | 41% | via Wikipedia |
| Rasmussen Reports for Republican-affiliated (as labeled by source) partisan | 2026-09-17 – 2026-09-23 | 1,819 LV | ±2.3 | 48% | 43% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| Emerson College | 2026-09-21 – 2026-09-22 | 1,000 LV | ±3.1 | 53% | 42% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| McLaughlin & Associates for Republican-affiliated (as labeled by source) partisan | 2026-09-16 – 2026-09-22 | 1,000 LV | ±3.1 | 48% | 43% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| Verasight for The Argument | 2026-09-16 – 2026-09-22 | 1,603 RV | ±2.4 | 53% | 47% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| ActiVote unverified, not averaged | 2026-09-11 – 2026-09-21 | 1,000 LV | ±3.1 | 53% | 47% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| Echelon Insights unverified, not averaged | 2026-09-17 – 2026-09-21 | 1,002 LV | ±3.1 | 51% | 43% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| National Research Inc. for Impact Research (D) partisan unverified, not averaged | 2026-09-16 – 2026-09-21 | 1,500 RV | ±2.5 | 50% | 42% | via Wikipedia |
| Verasight for Strength In Numbers | 2026-09-16 – 2026-09-21 | 1,528 A | ±2.5 | 49% | 41% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| Verasight for Strength In Numbers | 2026-09-16 – 2026-09-21 | 1,374 RV | ±2.6 | 50% | 42% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| YouGov for The Economist | 2026-09-18 – 2026-09-21 | 975 LV | ±3.1 | 52% | 38% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| YouGov for The Economist | 2026-09-18 – 2026-09-21 | 1,394 RV | ±2.6 | 45% | 36% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| Morning Consult | 2026-09-18 – 2026-09-20 | 18,336 LV | ±0.7 | 50% | 43% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| Quantus Insights for Republican-affiliated (as labeled by source) partisan unverified, not averaged | 2026-09-15 – 2026-09-18 | 1,389 LV | ±2.6 | 50% | 42% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| CNN/SSRS | 2026-09-16 – 2026-09-17 | 867 RV | ±3.3 | 49% | 41% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| John Zogby Strategies unverified, not averaged | 2026-09-15 – 2026-09-17 | 1,007 LV | ±3.1 | 46% | 40% | via Wikipedia |
| Clarity Campaign Labs for Democratic-affiliated (as labeled by source) partisan unverified, not averaged | 2026-09-11 – 2026-09-16 | 1,046 LV | ±3 | 50% | 43% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| Rasmussen Reports for Republican-affiliated (as labeled by source) partisan | 2026-09-10 – 2026-09-16 | 1,746 LV | ±2.3 | 49% | 41% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| The Winston Group for Republican-affiliated (as labeled by source) partisan unverified, not averaged | 2026-09-12 – 2026-09-16 | 1,000 RV | ±3.1 | 51% | 42% | via Wikipedia |
| Big Data Poll for Republican-affiliated (as labeled by source) partisan unverified, not averaged | 2026-09-13 – 2026-09-15 | 2,633 LV | ±1.9 | 48% | 37% | via Wikipedia |
| Big Data Poll for Republican-affiliated (as labeled by source) partisan unverified, not averaged | 2026-09-13 – 2026-09-15 | 2,947 RV | ±1.8 | 45% | 36% | via Wikipedia |
| Emerson College for RealClear Opinion Research | 2026-09-12 – 2026-09-15 | 1,500 RV | ±2.5 | 37% | 29% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| Marist University | 2026-09-14 – 2026-09-15 | 1,280 RV | ±2.7 | 53% | 41% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| Morning Consult | 2026-09-10 – 2026-09-15 | 2,102 RV | ±2.1 | 46% | 43% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| Public Opinion Strategies for Hart Research Associates (D) partisan unverified, not averaged | 2026-09-11 – 2026-09-15 | 1,000 RV | ±3.1 | 50% | 45% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| RMG Research unverified, not averaged | 2026-09-08 – 2026-09-15 | 2,000 RV | ±2.2 | 51% | 43% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| Ipsos for Reuters | 2026-09-11 – 2026-09-14 | 1,143 A | ±2.9 | 39% | 31% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| Ipsos for Reuters | 2026-09-11 – 2026-09-14 | 896 RV | ±3.3 | 44% | 37% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| Shaw & Co. Research for Beacon Research (D) partisan unverified, not averaged | 2026-09-11 – 2026-09-14 | 1,211 RV | ±2.8 | 51% | 44% | via Wikipedia |
| The Rainey Center unverified, not averaged | 2026-09-10 – 2026-09-14 | 1,004 RV | ±3.1 | 48% | 42% | via Wikipedia |
| YouGov for The Economist | 2026-09-11 – 2026-09-14 | 1,051 LV | ±3 | 51% | 39% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| YouGov for The Economist | 2026-09-11 – 2026-09-14 | 1,455 RV | ±2.6 | 44% | 39% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| Siena College for New York Times unverified, not averaged | 2026-09-08 – 2026-09-13 | 1,503 LV | ±2.5 | 51% | 43% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| YouGov for CBS News | 2026-09-08 – 2026-09-11 | 1,750 LV | ±2.3 | 54% | 46% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| ActiVote unverified, not averaged | 2026-08-31 – 2026-09-10 | 1,000 LV | ±3.1 | 52% | 48% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| Marquette University Law School | 2026-09-02 – 2026-09-09 | 1,023 A | ±3.1 | 48% | 39% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| Marquette University Law School | 2026-09-02 – 2026-09-09 | 864 RV | ±3.3 | 50% | 42% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| Rasmussen Reports for Republican-affiliated (as labeled by source) partisan | 2026-09-03 – 2026-09-09 | 1,905 LV | ±2.2 | 47% | 42% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| YouGov for Catawba College | 2026-09-04 – 2026-09-09 | 779 LV | ±3.5 | 49% | 38% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| YouGov for Catawba College | 2026-09-04 – 2026-09-09 | 1,201 A | ±2.8 | 38% | 28% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| YouGov for The Economist | 2026-09-04 – 2026-09-08 | 1,464 RV | ±2.6 | 42% | 35% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| YouGov for The Economist | 2026-09-04 – 2026-09-08 | 1,015 LV | ±3.1 | 49% | 38% | pollster's site · source |
| Public Religion Research Institute unverified, not averaged | 2026-08-20 – 2026-09-07 | 5,539 A | ±1.3 | 36% | 28% | via Wikipedia |
| Morning Consult | 2026-09-04 – 2026-09-06 | 2,203 RV | ±2.1 | 46% | 42% | pollster's site · source |
| Quinnipiac University | 2026-09-03 – 2026-09-06 | 970 RV | ±3.1 | 49% | 38% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| Cygnal for Republican-affiliated (as labeled by source) partisan unverified, not averaged | 2026-09-01 – 2026-09-02 | 1,500 LV | ±2.5 | 51% | 42% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| Financial Times for Focaldata unverified, not averaged | 2026-08-28 – 2026-09-02 | 2,178 A | ±2.1 | 46% | 41% | via Wikipedia |
| Financial Times for Focaldata unverified, not averaged | 2026-08-28 – 2026-09-02 | 1,837 RV | ±2.3 | 51% | 44% | via Wikipedia |
| Financial Times for Focaldata unverified, not averaged | 2026-08-28 – 2026-09-02 | 1,837 LV | ±2.3 | 52% | 45% | via Wikipedia |
| Ipsos for Reuters | 2026-08-28 – 2026-08-31 | 924 RV | ±3.2 | 43% | 38% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| Ipsos for Reuters | 2026-08-28 – 2026-08-31 | 1,167 A | ±2.9 | 38% | 31% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| HarrisX for Harvard / Harris Poll unverified, not averaged | 2026-08-28 – 2026-08-30 | 2,100 RV | ±2.1 | 51% | 49% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| Rasmussen Reports for Republican-affiliated (as labeled by source) partisan | 2026-08-23 – 2026-08-30 | 2,231 LV | ±2.1 | 41% | 36% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| ActiVote unverified, not averaged | 2026-08-10 – 2026-08-24 | 1,000 LV | ±3.1 | 52% | 48% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| Ipsos for Reuters | 2026-08-21 – 2026-08-24 | 951 RV | ±3.2 | 41% | 35% | pollster's site · source |
| McLaughlin & Associates for Republican-affiliated (as labeled by source) partisan | 2026-08-14 – 2026-08-24 | 1,000 LV | ±3.1 | 48% | 43% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| YouGov for The Economist | 2026-08-21 – 2026-08-24 | 1,534 A | ±2.5 | 37% | 31% | pollster's site · source |
| YouGov for The Economist | 2026-08-21 – 2026-08-24 | 1,377 RV | ±2.6 | 46% | 40% | pollster's site · source |
| Echelon Insights unverified, not averaged | 2026-08-13 – 2026-08-17 | 1,002 LV | ±3.1 | 50% | 45% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| Emerson College | 2026-08-16 – 2026-08-17 | 1,000 LV | ±3.1 | 51% | 43% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| Ipsos for Reuters | 2026-08-14 – 2026-08-17 | 876 RV | ±3.3 | 41% | 36% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| The Bullfinch Group unverified, not averaged | 2026-08-14 – 2026-08-17 | 1,000 RV | ±3.1 | 42% | 37% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| The Bullfinch Group unverified, not averaged | 2026-08-14 – 2026-08-17 | 1,200 A | ±2.8 | 45% | 40% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| YouGov for The Economist | 2026-08-14 – 2026-08-17 | 1,449 RV | ±2.6 | 46% | 39% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| Morning Consult | 2026-08-10 – 2026-08-16 | 29,719 RV | ±0.6 | 46% | 42% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| Morning Consult for Cato Institute | 2026-08-13 – 2026-08-16 | 4,150 RV | ±1.5 | 47% | 42% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| Noble Predictive Insights for The Center Square unverified, not averaged | 2026-08-12 – 2026-08-16 | 2,533 RV | ±1.9 | 47% | 42% | pollster's site · source |
| Angus Reid Global unverified, not averaged | 2026-08-08 – 2026-08-11 | 1,525 A | ±2.5 | 45% | 36% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| Financial Times for Focaldata unverified, not averaged | 2026-08-07 – 2026-08-11 | 2,152 A | ±2.1 | 48% | 41% | via Wikipedia |
| Financial Times for Focaldata unverified, not averaged | 2026-08-07 – 2026-08-11 | 1,913 RV | ±2.2 | 49% | 43% | via Wikipedia |
| Financial Times for Focaldata unverified, not averaged | 2026-08-07 – 2026-08-11 | 1,857 LV | ±2.3 | 51% | 45% | via Wikipedia |
| Verasight for Wave Polling | 2026-08-07 – 2026-08-11 | 1,591 RV | ±2.5 | 50% | 43% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| AlphaROC unverified, not averaged | 2026-08-08 – 2026-08-10 | 1,000 A | ±3.1 | 41% | 37% | via Wikipedia |
| YouGov for The Economist | 2026-08-07 – 2026-08-10 | 1,558 A | ±2.5 | 40% | 32% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| YouGov for The Economist | 2026-08-07 – 2026-08-10 | 1,419 RV | ±2.6 | 46% | 40% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
| Morning Consult | 2026-08-03 – 2026-08-09 | 29,719 RV | ±0.6 | 47% | 42% | pollster's site · via Wikipedia |
How this tracker works
- Polls. Every national poll of this question we can find, each linked to its source: the pollster’s release (listed by VoteHub, CC BY 4.0) or Wikipedia’s poll tables (CC BY-SA 4.0, linked to the exact revision read).
- Average. Each pollster counts once (its latest poll in the last 60 days). Polls are weighted by sample size, recency (half-life 14 days) and a half weight for partisan sponsors. Only verified pollsters count. At least 3 verified pollsters, or no number is shown. We never average other sites’ averages. Margin of error is computed from the sample size (95%, worst case).
- Automation. New polls arrive nightly and publish automatically only when they pass our checks; anything unusual waits for a person. See the methodology.
- Verified pollsters only. The average includes only pollsters verified by staff. Polls from pollsters not yet verified are listed and labelled (see pollsters) but never counted. Model
national-tracker-2.0.0 (aggregate-v1.0.0 inputs: latest poll per verified pollster).
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