Who is ahead in the 2026 Texas's 10th District race?

Name: U.S. House - TX-10, Texas, Vugol Vector & Vugol Attention
Creator: Vugol Me
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Chris Gober (R) won the TX-10 race with 53.8% of the vote. Gober leads Rourk by 7.9 points in our average of verified polls. Verified poll average · 1 poll · newest poll ended 2026-09-22. Updated 2026-11-13.

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TX2026

U.S. House - TX-10 · Texas · 2026

General election · 2 on the certified November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)

VecR 67 · HeldTenR 93%Att72

TV graphic Vugol race poll

Result

Called

Chris Gober (R) won this race with 53.8% of the vote, 7.5 points ahead.

Chris GoberRepublicanWinner53.8%161,425 votes
Caitlin RourkDemocratic46.2%138,832 votes

Margin: 22,593 votes (7.5 points)
Reporting: 100% of the count in
Called: Called by Wikipedia editors, Nov 4, 9:58 AM ET (revision)
Last updated: Nov 7, 8:53 AM ET
Source: State results feed

Called it: hit Our locked call before polls closed was R; the winner is R. See every locked call

Unofficial until the state certifies the result.

Before the election

Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.

Race poll averageU.S. House - TX-10 · Texas

Caitlin McClay Rourk

46%

Chris Gober

54%

Verified poll average · 1 poll · newest poll ended 2026-09-22

R · Heldfrom verified polls

Verified polls Gober leads Rourk by 7.9 points in our average of verified polls.

1 verified poll averaged, newest ended 2026-09-22. Page updated 2026-11-13. Sources · What is validated

ExperimentalNews attention 72/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated yesterday. How it works

On the Texas ballot, Nov 3, 2026 U.S. Representative, District 10, 2 names on the official list. Election Day has passed; see the ballot as it was.Voting in Texas? Check your registration, get a mail ballot, find your polling place.

On the November ballot (2)

Certified by the state on 2026-08-28, checked 2026-11-12.

Caitlin McClay RourkU.S. House - TX-10 · FEC H6TX31102DemocraticOn the ballotFEC raised$576K Chris GoberU.S. House - TX-10 · FEC H6TX10221RepublicanOn the ballotFEC raised$3.1M

Not on the certified ballot (10)

Filed or ran for this seat, but not on the state’s certified list for November.

Official source: https://www.sos.texas.gov/elections/forms/2026-ballot-cert.pdf

Polling average · 1 verified pollVerified

Gober +7.9

Caitlin McClay Rourk Democratic: 46.1%
Chris Gober Republican: 53.9%

Latest verified field polling

Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.

1 verified poll

Latest verified pollVerified

Gober +7Within margin of error

Caitlin McClay Rourk Democratic: 41%
Chris Gober Republican: 48%

Cite / verify

Cite thishttps://vugol.me/races/US-TX-10

Sourcehttps://cdn.sanity.io/files/ifn0l6bs/production/18b086d657596631c5661561b4f982d08b7ddacf.pdf

Retrieved2026-11-13

Polling average Updates as polls arrive

1 verified input

53.9% Chris Gober46.1% Caitlin McClay Rourk

Chris Gober (R)Caitlin Rourk (D)● verified poll · ○ quarantined poll · ◎ live average

Vugol Tensor

How far this poll average can miss · a range, not a prediction

tensor-1.0.0

Centre R+7.9. Four times in five the result lands between R+1.2 and R+14.6; nine in ten between D+0.7 and R+16.5. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: 7%.

Same inputs as the Vugol Tensor page: the verified polling average above (1 verified poll), plus how far polls have missed since 1998. In the backtest the plain poll average picked the wrong winner in about 11% of polled, mostly competitive races (11.2%, 946 races, 1998 to 2024), and polls miss together. Not a forecast guarantee. How Tensor works →

Campaign money (FEC)

Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Through
Caitlin McClay Rourk Democratic	$576,475	$497,139	$79,336	2026-10-14
Chris Gober Republican	$3,103,392	$2,937,827	$165,565	2026-10-14
Dawn Marshall Democratic	$11,567	$11,567	$0	2026-07-14
Jennifer Sharon Republican	$19,272	$18,705	$567	2026-06-30
Jeremy Story Republican	$28,531	$28,531	$21,788	2026-06-30
Jessica Karlsruher Republican	$199,278	$199,278	$0	2026-09-30
Kara King Republican	$231,139	$231,139	$0	2026-05-06
Rob Altman Republican	$193,488	$35,004	$158,483	2026-02-11
Robert Brown Republican	$7,854	$7,709	$0	2026-04-15
Scott Macleod Republican	$199,958	$199,958	$0	2026-06-30
Tayhlor Coleman Democratic	$76,849	$68,410	$8,438	2026-09-30
Walter Benjamin Bius Republican	$453,886	$357,238	$96,648	2026-09-30

Ad spending (FEC)

What each campaign reported paying for ads, and what outside groups (super PACs, PACs and parties) reported spending for and against each candidate. Federal Election Commission filings, public domain.

Candidate	Campaign's own ads	Outside groups for	Outside groups against
Chris Gober Republican	$695K+ $218K mail · through 2026-06-30	$1.6M$1.2M ads · 6 groups	none reported
Caitlin McClay Rourk Democratic	$19Kthrough 2026-06-30	none reported	none reported
Rob Altman Republican	$18K+ $286 mail · through 2026-02-11	none reported	none reported
Jessica Karlsruher Republican	$2,975+ $37K mail · through 2026-06-30	$12K$0 ads · 1 group	none reported
Tayhlor Coleman Democratic	$8,098through 2026-09-30	none reported	none reported
Jennifer Sharon Republican	$6,888through 2026-06-30	none reported	none reported

Biggest outside spenders

Chris Gober. For: AMERICAN MISSION $748K, CONSERVATIVES FOR AMERICAN EXCELLENCE INC. $474K, Club for Growth Action $230K
Jessica Karlsruher. For: CONSERVATIVE FUTURE TEXAS $12K

Outside groups: 24- and 48-hour independent expenditure reports for the 2026 primary and general, through 2026-10-14, each expenditure counted once after amendments; "ads" is TV, radio, digital and other media, and the rest is mail, phones, canvassing and similar. Campaign's own ads: TV, radio, digital, other media and ad production in the campaign committee's itemized payments, as the campaign described them, from the reports the FEC has processed (latest through 2026-09-30); newer reports appear as the FEC processes them. These are amounts committees reported paying, not airtime tracked by ad-monitoring firms, so very recent buys and future reservations may not show yet. Parser fec-ad-spend-1.0.0.

Results

Vote counts from the state’s own results feed, read every minute while votes are counted. Counts change until the state certifies.

general election · state results feed, unofficial

Chris Gober won	161,425	53.8%
Caitlin Rourk	138,832	46.2%

Chris Gober leads by 22,593 votes. 100% of reporting units counted.

Democratic primary

Caitlin Rourk won	32,716	60.8%
Dawn Marshall	12,184	22.6%
Bernardo Reyna	8,893	16.5%

Republican primary

Chris Gober won	38,541	51.2%
Ben Bius	10,507	14.0%
Rob Altman	5,660	7.5%
Jessica Karlsruher	5,352	7.1%
Scott MacLeod	5,051	6.7%
Jeremy Story	3,401	4.5%
Kara King	2,147	2.9%
Jenny Garcia Sharon	1,790	2.4%
Rob Brown	1,778	2.4%
Brandon Hawbraker	977	1.3%

Source: the state's official results feed, retrieved 2026-11-04 · parser state-feed-1.0.0

Key dates

Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.

2026-03-03, Primary election: U.S. House
2026-04-11, Convention: U.S. House, LIB
2026-05-26, Runoff: U.S. House
2026-11-03, General election: U.S. House

Source: FEC election dates (public domain).

In the news

At the Races: Red-y, set, voteRoll Call · Oct 29

Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news

Lab

Vugol Vector & Vugol Attention

Vugol Attention 72 Vugol Vector R · Held

Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.

Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)

Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly

attention-1.0.0

72OUT OF 100High attention

Vugol Attention percentile74th

7-day momentum82 / 100

Source breadth50% of tracked

Vugol Vector

Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: medium

vector-1.1.0

Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean

AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored

Completeness3 of 7 inputs (national, prior, money) · missing: pres, incumbent, pulse, poll

Evidenceno audit release · fundamentals only

Freshnessoldest input 2026-11-12 (yesterday)

The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.

Desk data: daily telemetry

Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans

Sources

Roster, official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
Vugol Attention inputs, Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
Polls and results, individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
Models attention-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 93daba1052a9 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).

Vugol Vector band: R · Held. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.

The four Vugol signals, side by side

They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.

Vugol Vector: Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
Vugol Tensor: How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
Vugol Attention: How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
Vugol Pulse: Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.