Nez +2Within margin of error
- Jonathan Michael Nez Democratic: 50%
- Eli Crane Republican: 48%
Undecided 2%
AZ2026
U.S. House - AZ-02 · Arizona · 2026
General election · 2 on the November ballot · Incumbent running
Result
CalledEli Crane (R) won this race.
- Eli CraneRepublicanIncumbentWinnerno count in the source
Also on the ballot, no count in the source: Curtis Goodwin (I), Jonathan Nez (D).
- Called
- Called by Wikipedia editors, Nov 9, 2:33 PM ET (revision)
- Last updated
- Nov 9, 8:58 PM ET
Called it: miss Our locked call before polls closed was D; the winner is R. See every locked call
Unofficial until the state certifies the result.
Before the election
Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.
Race poll averageU.S. House - AZ-02 · Arizona
Jonathan Michael Nez
51%
Eli Crane
49%
Verified poll average · 1 poll · newest poll ended 2026-10-14
Verified polls Nez leads Crane by 2.0 points in our average of verified polls.
1 verified poll averaged, newest ended 2026-10-14. Page updated 2026-11-14. Sources · What is validated
ExperimentalNews attention 66/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 8 days ago. How it works
On the November ballot (2)
From reported primary results, checked 2026-11-14. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.
Ballot source: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Arizona&oldid=1385573468
Nez +2
- Jonathan Michael Nez Democratic: 51%
- Eli Crane Republican: Incumbent49%
Latest verified field polling
Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.
Cite / verify
Cite thishttps://vugol.me/races/US-AZ-02
Sourcehttps://pollvault.substack.com/p/levee-math
Retrieved2026-11-14
Polling average Updates as polls arrive
51.0% Jonathan Michael Nez49.0% Eli Crane
Jonathan Nez (D)Eli Crane (R)● verified poll · ○ quarantined poll · ◎ live average
Vugol Tensor
How far this poll average can miss · a range, not a prediction
Centre D+2.0. Four times in five the result lands between D+8.8 and R+4.7; nine in ten between D+10.7 and R+6.6. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: 65%.
Same inputs as the Vugol Tensor page: the verified polling average above (1 verified poll), plus how far polls have missed since 1998. In the backtest the plain poll average picked the wrong winner in about 11% of polled, mostly competitive races (11.2%, 946 races, 1998 to 2024), and polls miss together. Not a forecast guarantee. How Tensor works →
Campaign money (FEC)
Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Crane | $11,904,946 | $10,873,254 | $1,349,063 | 2026-10-14 |
| Jonathan Michael Nez | $5,805,341 | $5,364,572 | $506,072 | 2026-10-14 |
Ad spending (FEC)
What each campaign reported paying for ads, and what outside groups (super PACs, PACs and parties) reported spending for and against each candidate. Federal Election Commission filings, public domain.
| Candidate | Campaign's own ads | Outside groups for | Outside groups against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Crane | $41K | $3.7M | $3.3M |
| Jonathan Michael Nez | $72K | $896K | $3.6M |
Biggest outside spenders
- Eli Crane. For: NO GOING BACK PAC INC. $2.4M, FREEDOM CAUCUS FUND $554K, CIVIC RENEWAL FUND INC. $548K. Against: HMP $1.4M, LCV Victory Fund $502K, Invest in Tomorrow Coalition PAC $500K
- Jonathan Michael Nez. For: Somos PAC $413K, Progressive Turnout Project $290K, AB PAC $71K. Against: NO GOING BACK PAC INC. $2.4M, Club for Growth Action $818K, FREEDOM CAUCUS FUND $186K
Outside groups: 24- and 48-hour independent expenditure reports for the 2026 primary and general, through 2026-11-13, each expenditure counted once after amendments; "ads" is TV, radio, digital and other media, and the rest is mail, phones, canvassing and similar. Campaign's own ads: TV, radio, digital, other media and ad production in the campaign committee's itemized payments, as the campaign described them, from the reports the FEC has processed (latest through 2026-07-01); newer reports appear as the FEC processes them. These are amounts committees reported paying, not airtime tracked by ad-monitoring firms, so very recent buys and future reservations may not show yet. Parser fec-ad-spend-1.0.0.
Results
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state’s official results.
Democratic primary
| Jonathan Nez won | 65,118 | 100.0% |
Libertarian primary
| Curtis Goodwin won | 318 | 97.0% |
| Alex Flores (write-in) | 10 | 3.0% |
Republican primary
| Eli Crane (incumbent) won | 89,205 | 100.0% |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-11-14 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-07-21, Primary election: U.S. House
- 2026-11-03, General election: U.S. House
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
In the news
- Crane staves off Democratic challenger in Arizona House race
- Arizona Republican holds House seat, surviving re-election scare
- These House and Senate midterm races don't have winners yet
- Final rating changes: 63 races move toward Democrats, 1 toward Republicans
- Dem AG’s ‘too many golf courses’ remark goes viral as critics tee off
- Disappointed primary voters weigh their choices: From the Politics Desk
- East Valley battleground: Latter-day Saints at the center of Arizona’s contentious race for governor
- ‘Red to Blue’ Democrats rake in more than GOP rivals in third quarter
- A Republican attack ad misidentifies its Democratic target. Twice.
- Trump torches Democrats at Arizona rally, warns they will ‘destroy our country’ ahead of midterms
Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news
LabVugol Vector & Vugol Attention
Vugol Attention 66 Vugol Vector · Open
Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
66OUT OF 100Moderate attention
Vugol Attention percentile89th
7-day momentum38 / 100
Source breadth50% of tracked
Candidate attention share · trailing 7 days0% D · 100% R
Eli Crane (R) 100% · volume 42 / 7d
Vugol Vector
Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: medium
Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean
AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored
Completeness4 of 7 inputs (national, prior, incumbent, money) · missing: pres, pulse, poll
Evidenceno audit release · fundamentals only
Freshnessoldest input 2026-11-06 (8 days ago)
The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.
Desk data: daily telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans
Sources
- Roster, official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Vugol Attention inputs, Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results, individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models attention-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 3cf14a5e91f0 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Vugol Vector band: Toss-up. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.
The four Vugol signals, side by side
They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.
- Vugol Vector
- Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
- Vugol Tensor
- How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
- Vugol Attention
- How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
- Vugol Pulse
- Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.