Home / Races / Virginia / U.S. House — VA-01

VA2026

U.S. House — VA-01 · Virginia · 2026

Name: U.S. House — VA-01, Virginia — Vugol Me Attention & Vector
Creator: Vugol Me
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

General election · 2 on the November ballot · Incumbent running

Community poll

Model rating Leans Republican (Open) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.

2 polls on file from pollsters we have not verified yet — shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 4 of 7, updated today. Sources · What is validated

News attention 48/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 3 days ago. How it works

On the November ballot (2)

From reported primary results, checked 2026-09-30. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.

Robert J. WittmanU.S. House — VA-01 · FEC H8VA01147Republican IncumbentOn the ballotFEC raised$4.1M Shannon Leigh TaylorU.S. House — VA-01 · FEC H6VA01299DemocraticOn the ballotFEC raised$2.1M

Ran in the primary (6)

Lost a primary or runoff for this seat — not on the November ballot.

Ata-Ul-Salaam BhattiU.S. House — VA-01 · FEC H6VA01232DemocraticLost primaryFEC raised$299K Elizabeth Dempsey BeggsU.S. House — VA-01 · FEC H6VA01315DemocraticLost primaryFEC raised$199K Ericka KoppU.S. House — VA-01 · FEC H6VA01240DemocraticLost primaryFEC raised$16K Jason KnappU.S. House — VA-01 · FEC H6VA01307DemocraticLost primaryFEC raised$595K Melvin TullU.S. House — VA-01 · FEC H6VA01208DemocraticLost primaryFEC raised$294K Timothy Stephen CywinskiU.S. House — VA-01 · FEC H6VA01273DemocraticLost primaryFEC raised$31K

Other filers (4)

Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.

Amanda PohlU.S. House — VA-01 · FEC H6VA01182DemocraticNot on the November ballotFEC raised$51K Andrew LucchettiU.S. House — VA-01 · FEC H6VA01216DemocraticNot on the November ballotFEC raised$58K Lisa Vedernikova KhannaU.S. House — VA-01 · FEC H6VA01190DemocraticNot on the November ballotFEC raised$278K Sean SubletteU.S. House — VA-01 · FEC H6VA01257DemocraticNot on the November ballotFEC raised$66K

Ballot source: https://enr.elections.virginia.gov/results/public/virginia/elections/2026-August-Democratic-Primary

Latest verified field polling

Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.

none yet

No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.

Polling average

no verified inputs yet

2 polls on file for this race, all from quarantined (U-tier) pollsters — visible below, not yet averaged.

Rob Wittman (R)Shannon Taylor (D)● verified poll · ○ quarantined poll · ◎ live average

Campaign money (FEC)

Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Through
Robert J. Wittman Republican	$4,053,142	$1,136,232	$4,292,789	2026-07-15
Amanda Pohl Democratic	$51,418	$51,418	$0	2026-02-27
Andrew Lucchetti Democratic	$57,728	$57,728	$0	2025-08-22
Ata-Ul-Salaam Bhatti Democratic	$299,389	$253,810	$45,579	2026-07-15
Elizabeth Dempsey Beggs Democratic	$198,744	$198,744	$0	2026-09-28
Ericka Kopp Democratic	$15,949	$10,303	$5,646	2026-07-15
Jason Knapp Democratic	$594,641	$492,069	$102,572	2026-07-15
Lisa Vedernikova Khanna Democratic	$277,648	$277,648	$0	2026-01-30
Melvin Tull Democratic	$293,545	$293,545	$0	2026-08-31
Sean Sublette Democratic	$66,111	$66,111	$0	2025-12-08
Shannon Leigh Taylor Democratic	$2,140,980	$1,136,753	$1,004,227	2026-07-15
Timothy Stephen Cywinski Democratic	$30,967	$12,619	$-89	2026-07-15

Results

Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.

Democratic primary · official results

Shannon Taylor won	25,535	52.8%
Salaam Bhatti	9,606	19.9%
Jason Knapp	4,806	9.9%
Elizabeth Dempsey Beggs	3,477	7.2%
Mel Tull	2,085	4.3%
Tim Cywinski	1,466	3.0%
Ericka Kopp	1,366	2.8%

Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-30 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0

Key dates

Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.

2026-08-04 — Primary election: U.S. House
2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. House

Source: FEC election dates (public domain).

Signals (experimental)

Attention 48 Vector R · Open

Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)

Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly

pulse-1.0.0

48OUT OF 100Moderate attention

Attention percentile64th

7-day momentum22 / 100

Source breadth50% of tracked

Vugol Me Vector (experimental)

Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: medium

vector-1.1.0

Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean

AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored

Completeness4 of 7 inputs (national, prior, incumbent, money) · missing: pres, pulse, poll

Evidenceno verified poll · fundamentals only

Freshnessoldest input 2026-09-27 (3 days ago)

Vector component signals · estimated margin R +2.9Fundraising velocity (FEC)R +0.1Last result for this seat (2024 R +12.8, national swing D +10.5)R +2.3IncumbencyR +6.0National environment: our generic-ballot average is D +7.9 (27 pollsters, as of 2026-09-30), against the 2024 national House vote of R +2.6. The seat's last result and presidential lean move by that swing; polls, incumbency and money do not. How.

Daily precision telemetry

Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans

Sources

Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 08751e705a1d · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).

Band: Toss-up (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.