Castor +5Within margin of error
- Kathy Castor Democratic: 48%
- Mike Beltran Republican: 43%
Undecided 9%
FL2026
U.S. House - FL-14 · Florida · 2026
General election · 3 on the November ballot · Incumbent running
Result
CalledKathy Castor (D) won this race with 51.2% of the vote, 5.4 points ahead.
- Kathy CastorDemocraticWinner51.2%153,785 votes
- Mike BeltranRepublican45.9%137,702 votes
- Brian LambertLibertarian2.9%8,746 votes
- Margin
- 16,083 votes (5.4 points)
- Called
- Called by Wikipedia editors, Nov 4, 3:35 AM ET (revision)
- Last updated
- Nov 7, 8:53 AM ET
- Source
- State results feed
Called it: hit Our locked call before polls closed was D; the winner is D. See every locked call
Unofficial until the state certifies the result.
Before the election
Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.
Race poll averageU.S. House - FL-14 · Florida
Kathy Castor
53%
Mike Beltran
47%
Verified poll average · 2 polls · newest poll ended 2026-10-14
Verified polls Castor leads Beltran by 5.5 points in our average of verified polls.
2 verified polls averaged, newest ended 2026-10-14. Page updated 2026-11-14. Sources · What is validated
ExperimentalNews attention 33/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 3 days ago. How it works
On the November ballot (3)
From reported primary results, checked 2026-11-14. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.
Ran in the primary (6)
Lost a primary or runoff for this seat, not on the November ballot.
Other filers (4)
Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.
Ballot source: https://floridaelectionwatch.gov/FederalOffices/USSenator
Early vote in Florida
5,547,554 ballots cast statewide as of 2026-11-14 · registered Democrats 37.8%, Republicans 40.1%, unaffiliated 19.6%. Turnout by registration, not votes; never part of the rating. Full tracker →
Castor +5.5
- Kathy Castor Democratic: Incumbent52.7%
- Mike Beltran Republican: 47.3%
Latest verified field polling
Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.
Cite / verify
Cite thishttps://vugol.me/races/US-FL-14
Sourcehttps://pollvault.substack.com/p/levee-math
Retrieved2026-11-14
Polling average Updates as polls arrive
52.7% Kathy Castor47.3% Mike Beltran
Kathy Castor (D)Mike Beltran (R)● verified poll · ○ quarantined poll · ◎ live average
Vugol Tensor
How far this poll average can miss · a range, not a prediction
Centre D+5.5. Four times in five the result lands between D+12.2 and R+1.2; nine in ten between D+14.1 and R+3.1. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: 85%.
Same inputs as the Vugol Tensor page: the verified polling average above (2 verified polls), plus how far polls have missed since 1998. In the backtest the plain poll average picked the wrong winner in about 11% of polled, mostly competitive races (11.2%, 946 races, 1998 to 2024), and polls miss together. Not a forecast guarantee. How Tensor works →
Campaign money (FEC)
Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kathy Castor | $4,930,537 | $4,579,832 | $577,435 | 2026-10-14 |
| Alysha Aly Legge | $7,804 | $7,804 | $0 | 2026-10-15 |
| Bea Valenti | $238,795 | $238,795 | $0 | 2026-11-02 |
| Brian Keith Lambert | $17,092 | $14,615 | $2,477 | 2026-10-14 |
| Daniel Weldon | $114,916 | $94,146 | $20,770 | 2026-09-30 |
| Ergin Aka Batman Tek | $41,647 | $40,415 | $1,231 | 2026-09-30 |
| John Charles Wick | $7,089 | $7,089 | $0 | 2025-05-19 |
| John Peters | $203,332 | $203,332 | $0 | 2026-09-30 |
| Kevin Steele | $2,647,979 | $2,638,023 | $9,956 | 2026-09-30 |
| Michael Marcel | $19,400 | $19,400 | $0 | 2026-09-30 |
| Mike Beltran | $2,731,428 | $999,910 | $1,731,518 | 2026-10-14 |
| Robert Anthony Rocky Rochford | $277,770 | $254,284 | $25,665 | 2026-09-30 |
| Shay Williams | $23,443 | $23,443 | $0 | 2026-07-11 |
Ad spending (FEC)
What each campaign reported paying for ads, and what outside groups (super PACs, PACs and parties) reported spending for and against each candidate. Federal Election Commission filings, public domain.
| Candidate | Campaign's own ads | Outside groups for | Outside groups against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kathy Castor | $58K | $4.1M | $13.4M |
| Mike Beltran | $103K | $1.3M | $12.4M |
| Kevin Steele | $1.8M | ||
| Brian Keith Lambert | $819 | $84K | |
| John Peters | $75K | ||
| Robert Anthony Rocky Rochford | $48K |
Biggest outside spenders
- Kathy Castor. For: LCV Victory Fund $2.5M, Project 218 $538K, CFFE PAC $505K. Against: NO GOING BACK PAC INC. $12.4M, Club for Growth Action $456K, Freedom Caucus Fund $238K
- Mike Beltran. For: Freedom Caucus Fund $640K, CIVIC RENEWAL FUND INC. $406K, NO GOING BACK PAC INC. $255K. Against: HMP $8.8M, EDF Action Votes $1.8M, Invest in Tomorrow Coalition PAC $500K
- Brian Keith Lambert. For: OUR HERITAGE MATTERS $84K
Outside groups: 24- and 48-hour independent expenditure reports for the 2026 primary and general, through 2026-11-13, each expenditure counted once after amendments; "ads" is TV, radio, digital and other media, and the rest is mail, phones, canvassing and similar. Campaign's own ads: TV, radio, digital, other media and ad production in the campaign committee's itemized payments, as the campaign described them, from the reports the FEC has processed (latest through 2026-10-13); newer reports appear as the FEC processes them. These are amounts committees reported paying, not airtime tracked by ad-monitoring firms, so very recent buys and future reservations may not show yet. Parser fec-ad-spend-1.0.0.
Results
Vote counts from the state’s own results feed, read every minute while votes are counted. Counts change until the state certifies.
general election · state results feed, unofficial
| Kathy Castor won | 153,785 | 51.2% |
| Mike Beltran | 137,702 | 45.9% |
| Brian Lambert | 8,746 | 2.9% |
Kathy Castor leads by 16,083 votes.
Republican primary
| Mike Beltran won | 25,866 | 45.6% |
| Kevin Steele | 17,140 | 30.2% |
| Bea Valenti | 5,430 | 9.6% |
| Robert "Rocky" Rochford | 4,046 | 7.1% |
| John Peters | 1,573 | 2.8% |
| Michael Marcel | 1,016 | 1.8% |
| Ergin "Batman" Tek | 970 | 1.7% |
| Gavriel Soriano | 693 | 1.2% |
Source: the state's official results feed, retrieved 2026-11-07 · parser state-feed-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-08-18, Primary election: U.S. House
- 2026-11-03, General election: U.S. House
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (4)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to that article revision and, where we know it, to the pollster's own site.
- Republican primary · Catalyst Research · 2026-08-06–2026-08-08 · n=556 · Mike Beltran (R) 29%,Kevin Steele (R) 26%,Bea Valenti (R) 8%,Robert Rochford (R) 4% · release
- Republican primary · Victory Insights (partisan) · 2026-08-04–2026-08-06 · n=1,200 · Kevin Steele (R) 32%,Mike Beltran (R) 23%,Bea Valenti (R) 8%,Robert Rochford (R) 1% · release
- Republican primary · St. Pete Polls · 2026-07-14–2026-07-15 · n=376 · Mike Beltran (R) 30%,Kevin Steele (R) 18%,Bea Valenti (R) 2%,Robert Rochford (R) 1% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · St. Pete Polls · 2026-07-14–2026-07-15 · n=469 · Kathy Castor (D) 46%,Kevin Steele (R) 39% · release
In the news
- Rep. Darren Soto survives Republican-drawn map in Florida
- Republicans redrew maps in effort to secure midterm victories. It backfired
- How Democrats could win the House, how the GOP could hang on, and where to look for a wave
- Redistricting efforts blow up in Republicans' faces amid historic House losses
- How redrawn House districts voted in the midterms
- 2026 midterm election races to watch
- An hour-by-hour guide to watching the 2026 midterms, and when we’ll know who controls Congress
- Final rating changes: 63 races move toward Democrats, 1 toward Republicans
- At the Races: Family in the fray
- 10 Democrat-held House seats Republicans could flip to save their majority
Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news
LabVugol Vector & Vugol Attention
Vugol Attention 33 Vugol Vector D · Held
Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
33OUT OF 100Low attention
Vugol Attention percentile43th
7-day momentum5 / 100
Source breadth50% of tracked
Candidate attention share · trailing 7 days100% D · 0% R
Kathy Castor (D) 100% · volume 13 / 7d
Vugol Vector
Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: medium
Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean
AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored
Completeness4 of 7 inputs (national, prior, incumbent, money) · missing: pres, pulse, poll
Evidenceno audit release · fundamentals only
Freshnessoldest input 2026-11-11 (3 days ago)
The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.
Desk data: daily telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans
Sources
- Roster, official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Vugol Attention inputs, Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results, individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models attention-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 b44fc52ef48e · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Vugol Vector band: D · Held. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.
The four Vugol signals, side by side
They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.
- Vugol Vector
- Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
- Vugol Tensor
- How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
- Vugol Attention
- How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
- Vugol Pulse
- Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.