Calibration check
Where a race has both a verified poll average and our fundamentals-only call, how often do they point the same way, and where do they disagree? This is a consistency check between two inputs, not an accuracy test. Accuracy is scored against official results after November 3 (published by December 15, 2026).
As of 2026-11-07 · model vector-1.1.0 · 61 races with both. Recomputed from the stored inputs every hour.
- Same side: 43 of 61 (70%). The poll average and the fundamentals name the same party as ahead.
- One is a toss-up: 5 (8%). One of the two is within one point, so it names no side.
- Opposite sides: 13 (21%). Listed below. 4 of these carry the conflict flag on their race page (fundamentals at least 5 points one way, the poll at least 3 the other).
- Mean gap: 8.1 points between the poll margin and the fundamentals margin.
Margins are Republican-positive points. The poll margin is the verified-poll average the race page shows. The fundamentals margin is the weighted mean of the Vector's other inputs (past results, presidential lean, incumbency, money, attention), before any poll is mixed in. Race pages show the poll average where one exists.
Where they point opposite ways
| Race | Verified polls | Fundamentals |
|---|---|---|
| Alaska Governor | D+20.9 | R+12.0 |
| Kentucky's 6th District | D+10.6 | R+10.1 |
| North Carolina's 11th District | D+13.1 | R+1.5 |
| Iowa Governor | D+7.3 | R+7.1 |
| Vermont Governor | D+8.3 | R+4.6 |
| Ohio Governor | D+4.4 | R+8.4 |
| New Hampshire Governor | R+5.0 | D+3.1 |
| Minnesota's 1st District | D+2.2 | R+4.7 |
| Texas Senate | D+3.7 | R+1.6 |
| Iowa's 2nd District | D+3.1 | R+2.3 |
| Missouri's 2nd District | D+2.2 | R+2.6 |
| Kansas Governor | R+1.8 | D+2.8 |
| Kansas Senate | D+1.1 | R+3.4 |
Back to the methodology. Where the polls and the model disagree, both are shown on the race page and neither is edited.