Hamilton +1Within margin of error
- Adam Hamilton Democratic: 50%
- Roger W Marshall Republican: 49%
Other 1% · Undecided 0%
KS2026
U.S. Senate · Kansas · 2026
General election · 2 on the November ballot · Incumbent running
Result
CalledFlip: R to DAdam Hamilton (D) won this race with 51.0% of the vote, 5.1 points ahead, defeating incumbent Roger Marshall.
- Adam HamiltonDemocraticWinner51.0%562,076 votes
- Roger MarshallRepublicanIncumbent46.0%506,752 votes
- David GrahamL3.0%33,326 votes
- Margin
- 55,324 votes (5.1 points)
- Called
- Called by Wikipedia editors, Nov 3, 11:22 PM ET (revision)
- Seat
- Changed party: held by Roger Marshall (R)
- Last updated
- Nov 14, 2:02 PM ET
- Source
- Wikipedia · official results page
Called it: hit Our locked call before polls closed was D; the winner is D. See every locked call
Unofficial until the state certifies the result.
Before the election
Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.
Race poll averageU.S. Senate · Kansas
Adam Hamilton
51%
Roger W Marshall
49%
Verified poll average · 5 polls · newest poll ended 2026-10-29
Verified polls Hamilton leads Marshall by 1.2 points in our average of verified polls.
5 verified polls averaged, newest ended 2026-10-29. Page updated 2026-11-15. Sources · What is validated
ExperimentalNews attention 7/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated today. How it works
On the November ballot (2)
From reported primary results, checked 2026-11-14. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.
Ran in the primary (8)
Lost a primary or runoff for this seat, not on the November ballot.
Christy DavisDemocraticLost primary$194KErik MurrayDemocraticLost primary$213KJason HartDemocraticLost primary$52KKevin LatzDemocraticLost primary$41KLois Anne Elizabeth Lea ParelkarDemocraticLost primary$33KNoah TaylorDemocraticLost primary$197KPatrick SchmidtDemocraticLost primary$256KSandy Spidel NeumannDemocraticLost primary$412K
Ballot source: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Kansas&oldid=1385677446
Hamilton +1.2
- Adam Hamilton Democratic: 50.6%
- Roger W Marshall Republican: Incumbent49.4%
Latest verified field polling
Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.
Cite / verify
Cite thishttps://vugol.me/races/US-KS
Sourcehttps://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_ks_20261026_lv.pdf
Retrieved2026-11-15
Polling average Updates as polls arrive
50.6% Adam Hamilton49.4% Roger W Marshall
Adam Hamilton (D)Roger Marshall (R)● verified poll · ○ quarantined poll · ◎ live average
Vugol Tensor
How far this poll average can miss · a range, not a prediction
Centre D+1.2. Four times in five the result lands between D+7.9 and R+5.5; nine in ten between D+9.8 and R+7.4. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: 59%.
Same inputs as the Vugol Tensor page: the verified polling average above (5 verified polls), plus how far polls have missed since 1998. In the backtest the plain poll average picked the wrong winner in about 11% of polled, mostly competitive races (11.2%, 946 races, 1998 to 2024), and polls miss together. Not a forecast guarantee. How Tensor works →
Campaign money (FEC)
Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger W Marshall | $7,546,611 | $6,946,763 | $809,806 | 2026-10-14 |
| Adam Hamilton | $19,175,044 | $16,300,681 | $2,874,364 | 2026-10-14 |
| Christy Davis | $194,388 | $108,478 | $85,910 | 2026-06-30 |
| Erik Murray | $212,503 | $200,008 | $12,495 | 2026-07-15 |
| Jason Hart | $52,236 | $51,578 | $659 | 2026-09-30 |
| Kevin Latz | $40,954 | $36,713 | $53,135 | 2026-10-31 |
| Lois Anne Elizabeth Lea Parelkar | $32,725 | $30,076 | $2,649 | 2026-07-15 |
| Noah Taylor | $197,388 | $185,250 | $12,095 | 2026-10-14 |
| Patrick Schmidt | $256,046 | $256,046 | $0 | 2026-09-30 |
| Sandy Spidel Neumann | $411,754 | $385,070 | $26,683 | 2026-09-30 |
Ad spending (FEC)
What each campaign reported paying for ads, and what outside groups (super PACs, PACs and parties) reported spending for and against each candidate. Federal Election Commission filings, public domain.
| Candidate | Campaign's own ads | Outside groups for | Outside groups against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Hamilton | $8.1M | $12M | $31.7M |
| Roger W Marshall | $0 | $3.5M | $43.3M |
| Noah Taylor | $26K | $2.2M | |
| Sandy Spidel Neumann | $32K | ||
| Christy Davis | $3,231 | ||
| Jason Hart | $2,500 |
Biggest outside spenders
- Adam Hamilton. For: Lower Costs Now $5.1M, Government That Works PAC $4M, United Futures PAC $831K. Against: SLF PAC $16.5M, MAIN STREET FUND $3.8M, Club for Growth Action $2.5M
- Roger W Marshall. For: Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc. (AFP Action) DBA CVA Action and DBA LIBRE Action $1.3M, SLF PAC $769K, Protect Freedom Political Action Committee $458K. Against: PEOPLE OVER POLITICS ACTION FUND $14.7M, WinSenate $14.1M, Lower Costs Now $6M
- Noah Taylor. For: THE 1861 INITIATIVE $2.2M, Way Back PAC $10K
Outside groups: 24- and 48-hour independent expenditure reports for the 2026 primary and general, through 2026-11-03, each expenditure counted once after amendments; "ads" is TV, radio, digital and other media, and the rest is mail, phones, canvassing and similar. Campaign's own ads: TV, radio, digital, other media and ad production in the campaign committee's itemized payments, as the campaign described them, from the reports the FEC has processed (latest through 2026-09-30); newer reports appear as the FEC processes them. These are amounts committees reported paying, not airtime tracked by ad-monitoring firms, so very recent buys and future reservations may not show yet. Parser fec-ad-spend-1.0.0.
Results
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state’s official results.
general election
| Adam Hamilton won | 562,076 | 51.0% |
| Roger Marshall (incumbent) | 506,752 | 46.0% |
| David Graham | 33,326 | 3.0% |
Democratic primary
| Adam Hamilton won | 77,607 | 34.6% |
| Christy Davis | 31,857 | 14.2% |
| Noah Taylor | 30,362 | 13.6% |
| Anne Parelkar | 16,836 | 7.5% |
| Erik Murray | 15,177 | 6.8% |
| Patrick Schmidt | 13,403 | 6.0% |
| Sandy Spidel Neumann | 12,717 | 5.7% |
| Jason Hart | 12,412 | 5.5% |
| Damon Anderson | 5,879 | 2.6% |
| Kevin Latz | 4,110 | 1.8% |
| Michael Soetaert | 3,716 | 1.7% |
Republican primary
| Roger Marshall (incumbent) won | 270,632 | 79.9% |
| Arch Naramore | 68,100 | 20.1% |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-11-14 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-04-25, Election: U.S. Senate
- 2026-08-04, Primary election: U.S. Senate
- 2026-11-03, General election: U.S. Senate
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (17)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to that article revision and, where we know it, to the pollster's own site.
- Hypothetical matchup · New York Times/Siena University · 2026-10-27–2026-11-01 · n=736 · Adam Hamilton (D) 49%,Roger Marshall (R) 44%,David Graham (L) 4% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Emerson College · 2026-10-26–2026-10-28 · n=800 · Adam Hamilton (D) 49%,Roger Marshall (R) 45%,David Graham (L) 3% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · The Washington Post/SSPG · 2026-10-22–2026-10-26 · n=801 · Adam Hamilton (D) 52%,Roger Marshall (R) 43%,David Graham (L) 4% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · RedBox Research (partisan) · 2026-10-20–2026-10-23 · n=1,301 · Roger Marshall (R) 46%,Adam Hamilton (D) 45%,David Graham (L) 3% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · InsiderAdvantage (partisan) · 2026-10-13–2026-10-14 · n=1,200 · Roger Marshall (R) 48%,Adam Hamilton (D) 47%,David Graham (L) 3% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · InsiderAdvantage (partisan) · 2026-10-09–2026-10-10 · n=1,200 · Adam Hamilton (D) 48%,Roger Marshall (R) 47%,David Graham (L) 3% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · GBAO (partisan) · 2026-09-30–2026-10-04 · n=600 · Adam Hamilton (D) 46%,Roger Marshall (R) 41%,David Graham (L) 7% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Trafalgar Group (partisan) · 2026-09-29–2026-10-01 · n=1,095 · Roger Marshall (R) 44%,Adam Hamilton (D) 44%,David Graham (L) 2% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · New York Times/Siena University · 2026-09-22–2026-09-30 · n=605 · Adam Hamilton (D) 45%,Roger Marshall (R) 45%,David Graham (L) 5% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Wedgewood Polls · 2026-09-22–2026-09-24 · n=500 · Adam Hamilton (D) 50%,Roger Marshall (R) 48%,David Graham (L) 2% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Emerson College · 2026-09-15–2026-09-16 · n=750 · Adam Hamilton (D) 45%,Roger Marshall (R) 43%,David Graham (L) 4% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · co/efficient (partisan) · 2026-09-08–2026-09-10 · n=915 · Roger Marshall (R) 49%,Adam Hamilton (D) 44%,David Graham (L) 2% · pollster's site · release
- Democratic primary · GBAO (partisan) · 2026-07-13–2026-07-16 · n=600 · Adam Hamilton (D) 30%,Christy Davis (D) 13%,Noah Taylor (D) 10%,Patrick Schmidt (D) 5% · release
- Democratic primary · Change Research (partisan) · 2026-06-11–2026-06-15 · n=1,022 · Adam Hamilton (D) 18%,Christy Davis (D) 10%,Patrick Schmidt (D) 7%,Noah Taylor (D) 3% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Tavern Research (partisan) · 2026-01-26–2026-01-28 · n=1,013 · Adam Hamilton (I) 51%,Roger Marshall (R) 49% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Tavern Research (partisan) · 2026-01-26–2026-01-28 · n=1,013 · Roger Marshall (R) 55%,Patrick Schmidt (D) 45% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Tavern Research (partisan) · 2026-01-26–2026-01-28 · n=1,013 · Roger Marshall (R) 55%,Noah Taylor (D) 45% · release
In the news
- Newly elected Senate Democrats in the spotlight: From the Politics Desk
- Dem Cindy Holscher elected as Kansas’ next governor in latest blue wave midterms win
- Scott Colom elected Mississippi’s first Black senator since Reconstruction
- Van Hollen will challenge Schumer for Senate majority leader
- Dem Scott Colom defeats Mississippi Sen. Hyde-Smith after weeklong nailbiter
- Are Democrats ready to be a big-tent party again? Lawmakers from red states will find out.
- Democrat Cindy Holscher defeats Republican Ty Masterson in Kansas governor’s race
- Midterms provide glimpse of ‘blutah.’ Was it just a blip?
- Are incoming Democratic senators James Talarico of Texas and Adam Hamilton of Kansas attempting to lead a major reset of American politics? Read more in today’s WSJ Politics Newsletter:
- Reporter’s Notebook: House leadership up for grabs as GOP reckons with devastating losses
Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news
LabVugol Vector & Vugol Attention
Vugol Attention 7 Vugol Vector R · Open
Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
7OUT OF 100Low attention
Vugol Attention percentile0th
7-day momentum24 / 100
Source breadth0% of tracked
Vugol Vector
Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: medium
Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean
AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored
Completeness4 of 7 inputs (national, pres, incumbent, money) · missing: prior, pulse, poll
Evidenceno audit release · fundamentals only
Freshnessoldest input 2026-11-15 (today)
The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.
Desk data: daily telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans
Sources
- Roster, official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Vugol Attention inputs, Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results, individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models attention-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 8f7747412655 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Vugol Vector band: Toss-up. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.
The four Vugol signals, side by side
They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.
- Vugol Vector
- Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
- Vugol Tensor
- How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
- Vugol Attention
- How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
- Vugol Pulse
- Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.