U.S. Senate · Kansas · 2026
General election · 3 on the November ballot · Incumbent running
Model rating Leans Republican (Open) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.
7 polls on file from pollsters we have not verified yet — shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 5 of 7, updated today. Sources · What is validated
News attention 66/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 2 days ago. How it works
On the November ballot (2)
From reported primary results, checked 2026-09-30. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.
Ran in the primary (8)
Lost a primary or runoff for this seat — not on the November ballot.
Ballot source: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Kansas&oldid=1377537841
Latest verified field polling
Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.
No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.
Polling average
7 polls on file for this race, all from quarantined (U-tier) pollsters — visible below, not yet averaged.
Campaign money (FEC)
Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger W Marshall | $6,205,622 | $1,027,503 | $5,388,078 | 2026-07-15 |
| Adam Hamilton | $4,169,078 | $2,438,457 | $1,730,621 | 2026-07-15 |
| Christy Davis | $194,388 | $108,478 | $85,910 | 2026-06-30 |
| Erik Murray | $212,503 | $200,008 | $12,495 | 2026-07-15 |
| Jason Hart | $51,403 | $50,856 | $547 | 2026-07-19 |
| Kevin Latz | $39,880 | $13,623 | $75,210 | 2026-07-15 |
| Lois Anne Elizabeth Lea Parelkar | $32,725 | $30,076 | $2,649 | 2026-07-15 |
| Noah Taylor | $161,738 | $148,395 | $13,342 | 2026-07-15 |
| Patrick Schmidt | $256,046 | $251,019 | $5,027 | 2026-07-15 |
| Sandy Spidel Neumann | $410,527 | $249,918 | $160,609 | 2026-07-15 |
Results
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.
Democratic primary
| Adam Hamilton won | 77,607 | 34.6% |
| Christy Davis | 31,857 | 14.2% |
| Noah Taylor | 30,362 | 13.6% |
| Anne Parelkar | 16,836 | 7.5% |
| Erik Murray | 15,177 | 6.8% |
| Patrick Schmidt | 13,403 | 6.0% |
| Sandy Spidel Neumann | 12,717 | 5.7% |
| Jason Hart | 12,412 | 5.5% |
| Damon Anderson | 5,879 | 2.6% |
| Kevin Latz | 4,110 | 1.8% |
| Michael Soetaert | 3,716 | 1.7% |
Republican primary
| Roger Marshall (incumbent) won | 270,632 | 79.9% |
| Arch Naramore | 68,100 | 20.1% |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-30 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-04-25 — Election: U.S. Senate
- 2026-08-04 — Primary election: U.S. Senate
- 2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. Senate
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (5)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.
- Democratic primary · GBAO (partisan) · 2026-07-13–2026-07-16 · n=600 · Adam Hamilton (D) 30%, Christy Davis (D) 13%, Noah Taylor (D) 10%, Patrick Schmidt (D) 5% · release
- Democratic primary · Change Research (partisan) · 2026-06-11–2026-06-15 · n=1,022 · Adam Hamilton (D) 18%, Christy Davis (D) 10%, Patrick Schmidt (D) 7%, Noah Taylor (D) 3% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Tavern Research (partisan) · 2026-01-26–2026-01-28 · n=1,013 · Adam Hamilton (I) 51%, Roger Marshall (R) 49% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Tavern Research (partisan) · 2026-01-26–2026-01-28 · n=1,013 · Roger Marshall (R) 55%, Patrick Schmidt (D) 45% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Tavern Research (partisan) · 2026-01-26–2026-01-28 · n=1,013 · Roger Marshall (R) 55%, Noah Taylor (D) 45% · release
In the news
- The most vulnerable senators of 2026, about a month out from Election Day
- ICE confusion ignites MAGA backlash: ‘I would have called for impeachment’
- Democrats are running pastors for office. Republicans are attacking their religious comments.
- Marshall sends cease-and-desist to Hamilton over "defamatory" medical debt ad
- Woke megachurch pastor trying to unseat Kansas GOP senator called on congregation to repent for driving, eating beef
- Skyrocketing diesel prices rattle Republicans as midterms approach
- Woke megachurch pastor, Dem nominee called on congregation to repent for driving, eating beef
- Trump is moving fast and breaking things. He could pay in November.
- Republicans say Democrats are extremists. These Democrats want to convince voters that's not true
- Poll-sweating GOPers are pouring money into battleground states after grim outlook for both House, Senate
Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news
Signals (experimental)
Attention 66 Vector R · Open
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
Vugol Me Vector (experimental)
Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: medium
Daily precision telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans
Sources
- Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 f3bc5bb20b7b · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Band: Toss-up (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.