Newsroom

Who controls the Senate? Out of 100 Novembers

Democrats win the Senate in 69 of 100, Republicans in 31 simulated Novembers. The middle outcome is 52 Democratic seats of 100; 51 make a majority.

• 20,000 simulations from the Vugol Tensor; 16 of 35 seats up have a verified poll average.
• A simulation, not a prediction. The label is printed on the graphic.

Fits: Political shows, Sunday shows, election-night previews · Data read Oct 20, 9:43 PM ET

Who controls the House? Out of 100 Novembers

Democrats win the House in 96 of 100, Republicans in 4 simulated Novembers. The middle outcome is 240 Democratic seats of 435; 218 make a majority.

• 20,000 simulations from the Vugol Tensor; 13 of 435 seats up have a verified poll average.
• A simulation, not a prediction. The label is printed on the graphic.

Fits: Political shows, Sunday shows, election-night previews · Data read Oct 20, 9:43 PM ET

The tightest races, by verified polls

Closest right now: New York's 17th District, D+0.3 (D 52% to finish ahead).

• New York's 17th District: D+0.3, D 52%
• Iowa Senate: D+0.5, D 54%
• Florida Governor: R+0.9, R 57%
• Texas Governor: D+1.3, D 60%
• Kansas Senate: D+1.3, D 60%

Fits: Dayside news hours, panels, "races to watch" segments · Data read Oct 20, 9:43 PM ET

One race, two faces, two numbers

• Two big faces and two big numbers for the closest statewide races below.
• Any race works: put its key in the address, for example /tv/faceoff/US-GA.

Fits: State and regional segments, candidate interviews, debate nights

Early vote by party registration, from official state files

3 states tracked daily; every file is stored with its SHA-256 and retrieval time.

• Florida: 830,964 ballots as of 2026-10-20 (Democrats 42.5%, Republicans 36.3%, unaffiliated 18.7% by registration)
• North Carolina: 733,299 ballots as of 2026-10-20 (Democrats 44.7%, Republicans 20.7%, unaffiliated 34.4% by registration)
• Pennsylvania: 276,438 ballots as of 2026-10-13 (Democrats 71.8%, Republicans 20.2% by registration)
• Party registration, not vote choice. The graphic says so.

Fits: Morning shows, dayside news, data segments · Data read Oct 20, 7:06 AM ET

The generic ballot, every poll linked

Democrats 50.7%, Republicans 42.8% in our average of 36 pollsters (each counts once).

• Each poll links to the pollster’s own release; partisan sponsors are labeled.
• Average as of 2026-10-20.

Fits: Political shows, panels, opinion hours · Data read Oct 20, 7:00 PM ET

Presidential approval

Approve 34.4%, Disapprove 63.9%, net -29.5, across 18 pollsters.

• Each poll links to the pollster’s own release; partisan sponsors are labeled.
• Average as of 2026-10-20.

Fits: Political shows, panels, opinion hours · Data read Oct 20, 7:00 PM ET

If the election were held today

• Our call for every race as if voting were today: verified polling where it exists, otherwise a documented model.
• Cite it as “according to the Vugol Vector”. Every call is versioned and checksummed.

Fits: Primetime, panels, "what would change" segments

Who is behind each poll

• A poll enters our averages only if its pollster is verified and the poll links to a public release.
• Partisan sponsors are labeled; reader polls never enter an average.

Fits: Media-criticism, fact-check and data segments

What is on the ballot, state by state

Ballot guides and how-to-vote pages for all 50 states and DC: deadlines, mail forms, polling places.

• Each guide links to the state’s official sources.

Fits: Morning shows, weekend service segments

Every candidate, federal to local

173,529 candidate profiles, each with sources, from Senate to school board.

• Every profile has a shareable poster for social and segments.

Fits: Local segments, candidate spotlights