Election results 2026 · Archive

Before the vote: our 2026 forecasts and guides

Everything below was published on the Vugol Me home page before Election Day, Tuesday, Nov 3, 2026. It is kept here for the record. Some panels still read the latest polls and model runs; none of them is a result. For who won, see the election results; for how the forecast did, see Called it.

Pre-election forecast, locked Nov 2

Vugol Vector Pre-Election Calls

Locked Nov 2, 8:26 PM ET, before any votes were counted. If they hold, Democrats control both the Senate (53 to 47) and the House (241 to 194). Calls, not results.

The home page as it was before Nov 3

Candidate depth. Verified polling. Reproducible models. One site. ✦ Ask me anything

Every number links to its source. How to read a race

Vugol Pulse · today’s question · not a scientific poll

Do you support Washington, D.C.'s voter-approved ban on selling foie gras?

Answering confirms you’re 18 or older. Results show after you answer.

Election Day 2024 vs. nowSince you last voted

All 32 numbers →Photo credits

Pre-election forecast, locked Nov 2

The Vugol Vector going into Election Day

Full breakdown

U.S. SenateD 53·R 47Democrats would control the U.S. Senate2 close calls · range D 52–54, R 46–48 U.S. House

Each dot a seat, by race ratingD 241·R 194Democrats would control the U.S. House31 close calls · range D 229–260, R 175–206 GovernorsD 28·R 22Democrats would hold most governorships3 close calls · range D 27–30, R 20–23

The Vugol Vector called every 2026 race for the side ahead before the votes were counted: verified polling where it existed, otherwise our proprietary ensemble model. Close calls are toss-ups decided by the slightest edge. A snapshot, not a probability, and not a result. See how it did against the results.

Pre-election forecast, locked Nov 2

Vugol Vector

Who was ahead in every race going into Election Day: verified polls where they existed, our model where they did not. Scored against the results, not a prediction of them.

How the forecast did →Full breakdown →

President’s approval

38.0% approve 59.8% disapproveUnderwater by 21.8 points

5,544,831ballots already cast in Florida · early vote, as of 2026-11-07

38%Democrats2,094,893
40%Republicans2,221,854
22%Other / none1,228,084

By registered party, not by how they voted.

What this means

2,837,351ballots already cast in North Carolina · early vote, as of 2026-11-07

38%Democrats1,088,966
26%Republicans740,175
36%Other / none1,008,210

By registered party, not by how they voted.

129% of 2022’s whole early vote (2,198,550)

What this means

276,438ballots already cast in Pennsylvania · early vote, as of 2026-10-13

72%Democrats198,421
20%Republicans55,830
8%Other / none22,187

By registered party, not by how they voted.

What this means

What changed

The 2026 map

Where every race leans

Full races index

35 states with a race · select a state for its races

Democratic leanRepublican lean Purple = toss-up · grey = not yet rated · Att = Vugol Attention score (0–100), not support

State hubs: Maryland, Virginia, Texas. Every race on the ballot in one place.

Colored by the Vugol Vector: the verified polling average where one exists, otherwise our proprietary model. A snapshot of today, not a probability. What the Vugol Vector is

Pre-election forecast, locked Nov 2

Vugol Tensor

How far that call could miss: ranges for every race and the chance each side controlled each chamber before the votes were counted. No partisan tilt, and a modelled signal, not a poll.

See the ranges →If it comes true: who would lead →

Search candidates by name →

Tracking 35 U.S. Senate, 440 U.S. House and 39 governor races in 2026. Every poll we publish links to its source.

Loudest right now

Most-watched races

All 617 races

NJU.S. HouseD · AnchoredNew Jersey's 12th DistrictNJ-12 · New JerseyVugol Vector Adam Hamawy

HamawyVS Gregg Mele

MeleVecD 100 · AnchoredTenD >99%Att83News attention 83/100Details → · updated 2026-11-07 Vugol Pulse poll

TXU.S. HouseR · HeldTexas's 2nd DistrictTX-02 · TexasVugol Vector Daniel Crenshaw

CrenshawIncumbentVS Shaun Finnie

FinnieVecR 54 · HeldTenR 97%Att77News attention 77/100Details → · updated 2026-11-07 Vugol Pulse poll

OHU.S. SenateD · TiltingOhio SenateStatewide raceVerified polls Jon Husted

HustedIncumbentVS Frederick J Ode

OdeVecD 1 · TiltingTenD 83%Att76Polls, 30 days: D+5 D +5.0 this weekNews attention 76/100Details → · updated 2026-11-07 Vugol Pulse poll

SDStatewideR · HeldSouth Dakota Secretary of StateStatewide raceVugol Vector Monae Johnson