Dembo +9
- Zach Dembo Democratic: 47%
- Ralph A Alvarado Republican: 38%
KY2026
U.S. House - KY-06 · Kentucky · 2026
General election · 2 on the November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)
Result
CalledZach Dembo (D) won this race with 52.6% of the vote, 9.4 points ahead.
- Zach DemboDemocraticWinner52.6%138,777 votes
- Ralph AlvaradoRepublican43.3%114,030 votes
- Jay J. BowmanIndependent2.5%6,710 votes
- Pete LynchKentucky1.5%3,836 votes
- Margin
- 24,747 votes (9.4 points)
- Called
- First seen here, Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET
- Last updated
- Nov 14, 6:07 AM ET
- Source
- Wikipedia · official results page
Called it: hit Our locked call before polls closed was D; the winner is D. See every locked call
Unofficial until the state certifies the result.
Before the election
Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.
Race poll averageU.S. House - KY-06 · Kentucky
Zach Dembo
55%
Ralph A Alvarado
45%
Verified poll average · 1 poll · newest poll ended 2026-10-05
Verified polls Dembo leads Alvarado by 10.6 points in our average of verified polls.
1 verified poll averaged, newest ended 2026-10-05. Page updated 2026-11-15. Sources · What is validated
ExperimentalNews attention 33/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated today. How it works
On the November ballot (2)
From reported primary results, checked 2026-11-14. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.
Ran in the primary (6)
Lost a primary or runoff for this seat, not on the November ballot.
Other filers (2)
Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.
Ballot source: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Kentucky&oldid=1384845425
Dembo +11
- Zach Dembo Democratic: 55.3%
- Ralph A Alvarado Republican: 44.7%
Latest verified field polling
Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.
Cite / verify
Cite thishttps://vugol.me/races/US-KY-06
Sourcehttps://data.ddhq.io/polls/2026/10/08/Change-Research/Kentuckians-Not-Corruption-Kentucky--6-2026-09-29-2026-10-05
Retrieved2026-11-15
Polling average Updates as polls arrive
55.3% Zach Dembo44.7% Ralph A Alvarado
Zach Dembo (D)Ralph Alvarado (R)● verified poll · ○ quarantined poll · ◎ live average
Vugol Tensor
How far this poll average can miss · a range, not a prediction
Centre D+10.6. Four times in five the result lands between D+17.3 and D+3.9; nine in ten between D+19.2 and D+2.0. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: 98%.
Same inputs as the Vugol Tensor page: the verified polling average above (1 verified poll), plus how far polls have missed since 1998. In the backtest the plain poll average picked the wrong winner in about 11% of polled, mostly competitive races (11.2%, 946 races, 1998 to 2024), and polls miss together. Not a forecast guarantee. How Tensor works →
Campaign money (FEC)
Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Perez Arquette | $4,990,948 | $1,672,032 | $0 | 2026-05-04 |
| Bowman J Jay | $18,958 | $18,183 | $216 | 2026-10-14 |
| Cherlynn Stevenson | $661,064 | $661,239 | $0 | 2026-07-16 |
| David Kloiber | $210,926 | $210,926 | $0 | 2026-05-20 |
| Deanna Gordon | $372,174 | $372,174 | $0 | 2026-06-30 |
| Erin Petrey | $268,180 | $264,465 | $3,961 | 2026-09-30 |
| Greg Plucinski | $746,261 | $734,138 | $12,123 | 2026-09-30 |
| Ralph A Alvarado | $2,307,369 | $2,126,558 | $180,812 | 2026-10-14 |
| Ryan Dotson | $567,471 | $565,675 | $1,796 | 2026-09-30 |
| Zach Dembo | $3,205,462 | $2,585,132 | $620,330 | 2026-10-14 |
Ad spending (FEC)
What each campaign reported paying for ads, and what outside groups (super PACs, PACs and parties) reported spending for and against each candidate. Federal Election Commission filings, public domain.
| Candidate | Campaign's own ads | Outside groups for | Outside groups against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ralph A Alvarado | $503K | $4M | $4.6M |
| Zach Dembo | $402K | $1.9M | $3.4M |
| Cherlynn Stevenson | $52K | $148K | |
| Erin Petrey | $127K | ||
| Bowman J Jay | $7,334 | $52K | |
| David Kloiber | $38K |
Biggest outside spenders
- Ralph A Alvarado. For: NO GOING BACK PAC INC. $2.6M, Protect Freedom Political Action Committee $452K, AMERICAN MEDICAL ASSOCIATION POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE $400K. Against: HMP $1.6M, Kentuckians Not Corruption $1.6M, In This Together PAC $600K
- Zach Dembo. For: Kentuckians Not Corruption $840K, SERVANT-LEADER FUND, INC. $320K, Progressive Turnout Project $266K. Against: NO GOING BACK PAC INC. $2.5M, CONSERVATIVES FOR AMERICAN EXCELLENCE INC. $654K, CIVIC RENEWAL FUND INC. $79K
- Cherlynn Stevenson. For: Women Vote $148K
- Bowman J Jay. Against: NO GOING BACK PAC INC. $52K
Outside groups: 24- and 48-hour independent expenditure reports for the 2026 primary and general, through 2026-11-13, each expenditure counted once after amendments; "ads" is TV, radio, digital and other media, and the rest is mail, phones, canvassing and similar. Campaign's own ads: TV, radio, digital, other media and ad production in the campaign committee's itemized payments, as the campaign described them, from the reports the FEC has processed (latest through 2026-09-30); newer reports appear as the FEC processes them. These are amounts committees reported paying, not airtime tracked by ad-monitoring firms, so very recent buys and future reservations may not show yet. Parser fec-ad-spend-1.0.0.
Results
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state’s official results.
general election
| Zach Dembo won | 138,777 | 52.6% |
| Ralph Alvarado | 114,030 | 43.3% |
| Jay J. Bowman | 6,710 | 2.5% |
| Pete Lynch | 3,836 | 1.5% |
Democratic primary
| Zach Dembo won | 26,858 | 39.6% |
| Cherlynn Stevenson | 21,312 | 31.5% |
| Erin Petrey | 10,703 | 15.8% |
| David Kloiber | 3,041 | 4.5% |
| Corey Edwards | 2,952 | 4.4% |
| Harvey Carroll Jr. | 1,958 | 2.9% |
| Jimmy Clifton Ausbrooks | 940 | 1.4% |
Republican primary
| Ralph Alvarado won | 36,217 | 56.5% |
| Ryan Dotson | 16,897 | 26.4% |
| Gregory George Plucinski | 5,670 | 8.8% |
| Steve Shannon | 3,980 | 6.2% |
| Adam Perez Arquette (withdrawn) | 1,332 | 2.1% |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-11-14 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-05-19, Primary election: U.S. House
- 2026-11-03, General election: U.S. House
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (4)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to that article revision and, where we know it, to the pollster's own site.
- Republican primary · 1892 Polling (partisan) · 2026-05-04–2026-05-07 · n=400 · Ralph Alvarado (R) 38%,Ryan Dotson (R) 15%,Greg Plucinski (R) 8%,Steve Shannon 3%,Adam Perez Arquette (R) 1% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-04-24–2026-04-25 · n=675 · Ralph Alvarado (R) 37%,Cherlynn Stevenson (D) 36% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-04-24–2026-04-25 · n=675 · Zach Dembo (D) 38%,Ryan Dotson (R) 33% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-04-24–2026-04-25 · n=675 · Ryan Dotson (R) 37%,Cherlynn Stevenson (D) 36% · release
In the news
- All the House districts that flipped in the midterm elections
- Democrats flip House as Republicans confront ‘blue tsunami’
- An hour-by-hour guide to watching the 2026 midterms, and when we’ll know who controls Congress
- Inside the Decision Desk: When will we know Senate and House control?
- At the Races: Red-y, set, vote
- Johnson and Thune adopt Trump’s messaging on ‘fake’ polling as GOP looks to project midterm optimism
- Epstein-linked billionaire pours $500K into super PAC backing Kentucky Democrat: 'Dirty Epstein-class money'
- How Democrats could win the House, how the GOP could hang on, and where to look for a wave
- House Republicans appear to have an open-seat problem
- Johnson and Thune adopt Trump’s messaging on ‘fake’ polling as GOP looks to project midterm optimism
Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news
LabVugol Vector & Vugol Attention
Vugol Attention 33 Vugol Vector R · Held
Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
33OUT OF 100Low attention
Vugol Attention percentile38th
7-day momentum12 / 100
Source breadth50% of tracked
Candidate attention share · trailing 7 days0% D · 100% R
Deanna Gordon (R) 100% · volume 8 / 7d
Vugol Vector
Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: medium
Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean
AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored
Completeness3 of 7 inputs (national, prior, money) · missing: pres, incumbent, pulse, poll
Evidenceno audit release · fundamentals only
Freshnessoldest input 2026-11-15 (today)
The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.
Desk data: daily telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans
Sources
- Roster, official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Vugol Attention inputs, Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results, individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models attention-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 1c998fad4ecb · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Vugol Vector band: R · Held. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.
The four Vugol signals, side by side
They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.
- Vugol Vector
- Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
- Vugol Tensor
- How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
- Vugol Attention
- How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
- Vugol Pulse
- Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.