General election · 3 on the certified November ballot · Incumbent running
James Talarico (D) won this race with 55.9% of the vote, 13.7 points ahead.
Called it: hit Our locked call before polls closed was D; the winner is D. See every locked call
Unofficial until the state certifies the result.
Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.
Verified polls Talarico leads Paxton by 3.8 points in our average of verified polls.
16 verified polls averaged, newest ended 2026-11-01. Page updated 2026-11-14. Sources · What is validated
ExperimentalNews attention 1/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated yesterday. How it works
Certified by the state on 2026-08-28, checked 2026-11-13.
Filed or ran for this seat, but not on the state’s certified list for November.
Official source: https://www.sos.texas.gov/elections/forms/2026-ballot-cert.pdf
Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.
How far this poll average can miss · a range, not a prediction
Centre D+3.8. Four times in five the result lands between D+10.5 and R+2.9; nine in ten between D+12.4 and R+4.8. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: 77%.
Same inputs as the Vugol Tensor page: the verified polling average above (16 verified polls), plus how far polls have missed since 1998. In the backtest the plain poll average picked the wrong winner in about 11% of polled, mostly competitive races (11.2%, 946 races, 1998 to 2024), and polls miss together. Not a forecast guarantee. How Tensor works →
Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jasmine Crockett | $11,096,966 | $11,096,966 | $0 | 2026-08-13 |
| Ken Paxton | $22,327,474 | $17,543,066 | $4,784,408 | 2026-10-14 |
| Wesley Hunt | $2,154,468 | $4,637,233 | $4,411 | 2026-09-30 |
| Anna Bender | $0 | $0 | $0 | 2026-03-31 |
| Barrett Anthony McNabb | $0 | $0 | $0 | 2026-11-14 |
| Bradford Winston Hall | $5,430 | $5,352 | $78 | 2026-10-14 |
| Colin Allred | $7,630,709 | $7,774,441 | $402 | 2026-09-30 |
| Daniel M Sims | $11,666 | $11,566 | $200 | 2026-05-19 |
| Gulrez Khan | $10,793 | $11,439 | $-646 | 2026-09-30 |
| Jade Simmons | $27,728 | $26,292 | $1,436 | 2026-10-14 |
| James Talarico | $146,349,912 | $136,427,055 | $9,922,857 | 2026-10-14 |
| Michael Swanson | $6,991 | $6,991 | $0 | 2025-09-30 |
| Sara Larue Canady | $770 | $7,491 | $-430 | 2026-03-31 |
| Terry Virts | $0 | $0 | $0 | 2026-11-14 |
| Theodore E. Brown Jr. | $14,257 | $13,037 | $1,288 | 2026-10-14 |
| Virgil Bierschwale | $9,988 | $9,657 | $383 | 2026-03-16 |
What each campaign reported paying for ads, and what outside groups (super PACs, PACs and parties) reported spending for and against each candidate. Federal Election Commission filings, public domain.
| Candidate | Campaign's own ads | Outside groups for | Outside groups against |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Talarico | $16.1M | $39.5M | $221.1M |
| Ken Paxton | $3.4M | $95.8M | $100.6M |
| Wesley Hunt | $2.8M | $934K | $13M |
| Jasmine Crockett | $7.4M | $749K | $4.5M |
| Colin Allred | $981K | $19K | |
| Theodore E. Brown Jr. | $2,500 | $26K |
Outside groups: 24- and 48-hour independent expenditure reports for the 2026 primary and general, through 2026-11-05, each expenditure counted once after amendments; "ads" is TV, radio, digital and other media, and the rest is mail, phones, canvassing and similar. Campaign's own ads: TV, radio, digital, other media and ad production in the campaign committee's itemized payments, as the campaign described them, from the reports the FEC has processed (latest through 2026-09-30); newer reports appear as the FEC processes them. These are amounts committees reported paying, not airtime tracked by ad-monitoring firms, so very recent buys and future reservations may not show yet. Parser fec-ad-spend-1.0.0.
Vote counts from the state’s own results feed, read every minute while votes are counted. Counts change until the state certifies.
| James Talarico won | 5,622,041 | 55.9% |
| James Talarico won | 5,447,080 | 55.1% |
| Ken Paxton | 4,250,704 | 43.0% |
| Ken Paxton | 4,249,373 | 42.2% |
| Ted Brown | 190,293 | 1.9% |
| Ted Brown | 190,237 | 1.9% |
James Talarico leads by 1,372,668 votes. 100% of reporting units counted.
| Ken Paxton won | 888,196 | 63.8% |
| John Cornyn (incumbent) | 503,438 | 36.2% |
| James Talarico won | 1,216,412 | 52.4% |
| Jasmine Crockett | 1,071,900 | 46.2% |
| Ahmad Hassan | 30,875 | 1.3% |
| John Cornyn (incumbent) advanced | 910,382 | 42.0% |
| Ken Paxton advanced | 878,564 | 40.5% |
| Wesley Hunt | 293,250 | 13.5% |
| Sara Canady | 26,355 | 1.2% |
| Anna Bender | 24,167 | 1.1% |
| Gulrez Khan | 15,873 | 0.7% |
| John Adefope | 9,284 | 0.4% |
| Virgil Bierschwale | 9,035 | 0.4% |
Source: the state's official results feed, retrieved 2026-11-04 · parser state-feed-1.0.0
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to that article revision and, where we know it, to the pollster's own site.
Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news
Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.
Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: medium
The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.
Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans
Vugol Vector band: Toss-up. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.
They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.
John Cornyn (R) 43%