TX2026

U.S. Senate · Texas · 2026

Name: U.S. Senate, Texas — Vugol Me Attention & Vector
Creator: Vugol Me
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

General election · 3 on the certified November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)

Community poll

Model rating Leans Republican (Open) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.

40 polls on file from pollsters we have not verified yet — shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 5 of 7, updated today. Sources · What is validated

News attention 59/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated today. How it works

On the November ballot (2)

Certified by the state on 2026-08-28, checked 2026-09-29.

James TalaricoU.S. Senate — TX · FEC S6TX00479DemocraticOn the ballotFEC raised$68.6M Warren Kenneth Paxton Jr.U.S. Senate — TX · FEC S6TX00388RepublicanOn the ballotFEC raised$9.2M

Also on the certified ballot: Ted Brown (Libertarian).

Not on the certified ballot (14)

Filed or ran for this seat, but not on the state’s certified list for November.

Official source: https://www.sos.texas.gov/elections/forms/2026-ballot-cert.pdf

Latest verified field polling

Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.

none yet

No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.

Polling average

no verified inputs yet

40 polls on file for this race, all from quarantined (U-tier) pollsters — visible below, not yet averaged.

James Talarico (D)Ken Paxton (R)● verified poll · ○ quarantined poll · ◎ live average

Campaign money (FEC)

Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Through
John Cornyn Republican	$14,261,514	$14,352,854	$542,120	2026-06-30
Anna Bender Republican	$0	$0	$0	2026-03-31
Barrett Anthony McNabb Republican	$0	$0	$0	2026-09-29
Colin Allred Democratic	$7,629,043	$7,772,469	$708	2026-06-30
Daniel M Sims Libertarian	$11,666	$11,566	$200	2026-05-19
Gulrez Khan Republican	$10,793	$11,439	$-646	2026-06-30
Jade Simmons Independent	$9,324	$8,369	$956	2026-06-30
James Talarico Democratic	$68,560,930	$47,012,775	$21,548,155	2026-06-30
Jasmine Crockett Democratic	$11,096,966	$11,096,966	$0	2026-08-13
Michael Swanson Democratic	$6,991	$6,991	$0	2025-09-30
Sara Larue Canady Republican	$770	$7,491	$-430	2026-03-31
Terry Virts Democratic	$0	$0	$0	2026-09-29
Theodore E. Brown Jr. Libertarian	$7,460	$6,376	$1,151	2026-06-30
Virgil Bierschwale Republican	$9,988	$9,657	$383	2026-03-16
Warren Kenneth Paxton Jr. Republican	$9,248,699	$7,492,915	$1,755,783	2026-06-30
Wesley Hunt Republican	$2,129,887	$4,587,880	$29,183	2026-06-30

Results

Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.

Republican primary runoff

Ken Paxton won	888,196	63.8%
John Cornyn (incumbent)	503,438	36.2%

Democratic primary

James Talarico won	1,216,412	52.4%
Jasmine Crockett	1,071,900	46.2%
Ahmad Hassan	30,875	1.3%

Republican primary

John Cornyn (incumbent) advanced	910,382	42.0%
Ken Paxton advanced	878,564	40.5%
Wesley Hunt	293,250	13.5%
Sara Canady	26,355	1.2%
Anna Bender	24,167	1.1%
Gulrez Khan	15,873	0.7%
John Adefope	9,284	0.4%
Virgil Bierschwale	9,035	0.4%

Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-29 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0

Key dates

Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.

2026-03-03 — Primary election: U.S. Senate
2026-04-11 — Convention: U.S. Senate — LIB
2026-05-26 — Runoff: U.S. Senate
2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. Senate

Source: FEC election dates (public domain).

Primary and hypothetical polls (40)

Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.

Hypothetical matchup · Overton Insights (partisan) · 2026-08-24–2026-08-26 · n=1,167 · James Talarico (D) 44%, John Cornyn (R) 43% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Overton Insights (partisan) · 2026-08-24–2026-08-26 · n=1,167 · Ken Paxton (R) 49%, Jasmine Crockett (D) 43% · release
Republican primary runoff · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2026-05-21–2026-05-23 · n=1,018 · Ken Paxton 53%, John Cornyn (R) 43% · release
Republican primary runoff · SoCal Strategies (partisan) · 2026-05-20–2026-05-21 · n=700 · Ken Paxton 57%, John Cornyn (R) 35% · release
Republican primary runoff · Global Strategy Group (partisan) · 2026-05-06–2026-05-11 · n=600 · Ken Paxton 52%, John Cornyn (R) 40% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Texas Southern University · 2026-04-22–2026-05-06 · n=1,223 · John Cornyn (R) 45%, James Talarico (D) 44% · release
Republican primary runoff · Remington Research Group (partisan) · 2026-05-03–2026-05-05 · n=1,810 · Ken Paxton 47%, John Cornyn (R) 36% · release
Republican primary runoff · University of Houston · 2026-04-28–2026-05-01 · n=1,200 · Ken Paxton 48%, John Cornyn (R) 45% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Texas Public Opinion Research (partisan) · 2026-04-17–2026-04-20 · n=1,018 · James Talarico (D) 44%, John Cornyn (R) 41% · release
Hypothetical matchup · University of Texas/Texas Politics Project · 2026-04-10–2026-04-20 · n=1,200 · James Talarico (D) 40%, John Cornyn (R) 33% · release
Republican primary runoff · co/efficient (partisan) · 2026-04-11–2026-04-14 · n=1,143 · John Cornyn (R) 44%, Ken Paxton 43% · release
Republican primary runoff · Peak Insights (partisan) · 2026-04-06–2026-04-09 · n=800 · John Cornyn (R) 44%, Ken Paxton 43% · release
Republican primary runoff · Texas Public Opinion Research · 2026-04-06–2026-04-07 · n=1,225 · Ken Paxton 48%, John Cornyn (R) 40% · release
Republican primary runoff · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2026-03-21–2026-03-23 · n=1,218 · Ken Paxton 49%, John Cornyn (R) 41% · release
Republican primary runoff · GQR (partisan) · 2026-03-19–2026-03-23 · n=600 · Ken Paxton 47%, John Cornyn (R) 42% · release
Republican primary runoff · Change Research (partisan) · 2026-03-17–2026-03-19 · n=807 · Ken Paxton 42%, John Cornyn (R) 39% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Impact Research (partisan) · 2026-03-12–2026-03-17 · n=900 · James Talarico (D) 43%, John Cornyn (R) 41% · release
Republican primary runoff · Slingshot Strategies (partisan) · 2026-03-07–2026-03-08 · n=781 · Ken Paxton 49%, John Cornyn (R) 41% · release
Republican primary runoff · Harper Polling (partisan) · 2026-03-06–2026-03-08 · n=500 · Ken Paxton 43%, John Cornyn (R) 39% · release
Republican primary runoff · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-03-05–2026-03-06 · n=565 · Ken Paxton 45%, John Cornyn (R) 42% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-03-04–2026-03-05 · n=576 · James Talarico (D) 44%, John Cornyn (R) 43% · release
Republican primary · YouGov · 2026-02-26–2026-03-02 · n=1,659 · Ken Paxton 36%, John Cornyn (R) 32%, Wesley Hunt (R) 17% · release
Democratic primary · YouGov · 2026-02-26–2026-03-02 · n=2,408 · James Talarico (D) 53%, Jasmine Crockett (D) 40% · release
Democratic primary · Emerson College · 2026-02-26–2026-02-27 · n=850 · James Talarico (D) 52%, Jasmine Crockett (D) 47% · release
Republican primary · Emerson College · 2026-02-26–2026-02-27 · n=547 · Ken Paxton 40%, John Cornyn (R) 36%, Wesley Hunt (R) 17% · release
Republican primary · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2026-02-25–2026-02-26 · n=939 · Ken Paxton 43%, John Cornyn (R) 38%, Wesley Hunt (R) 16% · release
Republican primary · Victory Phones (partisan) · 2026-02-24–2026-02-25 · n=600 · Ken Paxton 39%, John Cornyn (R) 30%, Wesley Hunt (R) 15% · release
Democratic primary · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-02-25–2026-02-25 · n=599 · James Talarico (D) 48%, Jasmine Crockett (D) 42% · release
Republican primary runoff · Blueprint Polling (partisan) · 2026-02-23–2026-02-24 · n=529 · Ken Paxton 49%, John Cornyn (R) 36% · release
Democratic primary · Blueprint Polling (partisan) · 2026-02-23–2026-02-24 · n=472 · James Talarico (D) 52%, Jasmine Crockett (D) 40% · release
Republican primary runoff · Blueprint Polling (partisan) · 2026-02-23–2026-02-24 · n=529 · John Cornyn (R) 42%, Wesley Hunt (R) 37% · release
Republican primary · Blueprint Polling (partisan) · 2026-02-23–2026-02-24 · n=529 · Ken Paxton 42%, John Cornyn (R) 30%, Wesley Hunt (R) 14% · release
Republican primary runoff · Blueprint Polling (partisan) · 2026-02-23–2026-02-24 · n=529 · Ken Paxton 53%, Wesley Hunt (R) 29% · release
Democratic primary · UT Tyler · 2026-02-13–2026-02-22 · n=488 · Jasmine Crockett (D) 55%, James Talarico (D) 37% · release
Democratic primary · University of Texas/ Texas Politics Project · 2026-02-02–2026-02-16 · n=369 · Jasmine Crockett (D) 56%, James Talarico (D) 44% · release
Republican primary · University of Texas/Texas Politics Project · 2026-02-02–2026-02-16 · n=350 · Ken Paxton 36%, John Cornyn (R) 34%, Wesley Hunt (R) 26% · release
Republican primary runoff · McLaughlin & Associates (partisan) · 2026-02-09–2026-02-12 · n=800 · Ken Paxton 44%, Wesley Hunt (R) 42% · release
Republican primary runoff · McLaughlin & Associates (partisan) · 2026-02-09–2026-02-12 · n=800 · Ken Paxton 50%, John Cornyn (R) 38% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Hart Research (partisan) · 2026-02-06–2026-02-12 · n=803 · Jasmine Crockett (D) 49%, Ken Paxton (R) 45% · release
Republican primary · McLaughlin & Associates (partisan) · 2026-02-09–2026-02-12 · n=800 · Ken Paxton 36%, John Cornyn (R) 29%, Wesley Hunt (R) 26% · release

In the news

‘F--- her’: Jasmine Crockett torched by ex-Dem colleague over who she left off endorsement listFox News · Sep 29
Jasmine Crockett’s PAC released new endorsements. Talarico is still not on the list.Washington Post · Sep 29
Talarico up 4 points in new Texas pollThe Hill · Sep 28
Democrats are running pastors for office. Republicans are attacking their religious comments.Politico · Sep 29
Mamdani allies hosting fundraiser for Dem Senate hopefuls James Talarico, Sherrod BrownNew York Post · Sep 28
Manchin: 'If character means anything, you can't vote for Ken Paxton'The Hill · Sep 27
Top Democrats Start to Fund James Talarico in Texas Senate RaceNew York Times · Sep 29
Reporter's Notebook: Senate Republicans scrap early exit from Washington as midterm stakes soarFox News · Sep 28
Tillis: Trump endorsing Paxton over Cornyn was 'colossal mistake'The Hill · Sep 27
GOP doubts about Georgia and North Carolina have Republicans shifting focus in battle for SenateABC News · Sep 29

Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news

Signals (experimental)

Attention 59 Vector R · Open

Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)

Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly

pulse-1.0.0

59OUT OF 100Moderate attention

Attention percentile97th

7-day momentum0 / 100

Source breadth50% of tracked

Vugol Me Vector (experimental)

Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: medium

vector-1.1.0

Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean

AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored

Completeness5 of 7 inputs (national, pres, incumbent, money, pulse) · missing: prior, poll

Evidenceno verified poll · fundamentals only

Freshnessoldest input 2026-09-30 (today)

Vector component signals · estimated margin R +1.6Presidential lean of the seat (2024 R +13.9, national swing D +10.5)R +3.4Fundraising velocity (FEC)D +7.1Attention shareD +1.8IncumbencyR +6.0National environment: our generic-ballot average is D +7.9 (27 pollsters, as of 2026-09-30), against the 2024 national House vote of R +2.6. The seat's last result and presidential lean move by that swing; polls, incumbency and money do not. How.

Daily precision telemetry

Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans

Sources

Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 723a749b3466 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).

Band: Toss-up (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.