Governor · New Hampshire · 2026
General election · 3 on the November ballot · Incumbent running
Model rating Leans Democratic (Open) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.
9 polls on file from pollsters we have not verified yet — shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 4 of 7, updated yesterday. Sources · What is validated
News attention 46/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 4 days ago. How it works
On the November ballot (3)
From reported primary results, checked 2026-09-29. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.
Ballot source: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2026_New_Hampshire_gubernatorial_election&oldid=1377317571
Latest verified field polling
Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.
No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.
Polling average
9 polls on file for this race, all from quarantined (U-tier) pollsters — visible below, not yet averaged.
Results
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.
Republican primary
| Kelly Ayotte (incumbent) won | 100,920 | 91.9% |
| Shaun Fife | 4,418 | 4.0% |
| Bob Wayne McClory | 3,890 | 3.5% |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-29 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-09-08 — Primary election: U.S. House
- 2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. House
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (6)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.
- Democratic primary · Saint Anselm College · 2026-03-16–2026-03-18 · n=691 · Cinde Warmington (D) 40%, Jon Kiper 13% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Saint Anselm College · 2026-03-16–2026-03-18 · n=1,491 · Kelly Ayotte (R) 45%, Jon Kiper (D) 31% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · yes. every kid. (partisan) · 2026-01-28–2026-01-29 · n=563 · Kelly Ayotte (R) 47%, Jon Kiper (D) 37% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · University of New Hampshire · 2026-01-15–2026-01-19 · n=2,053 · Kelly Ayotte (R) 49%, Deaglan McEachern (D) 41% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · University of New Hampshire · 2026-01-15–2026-01-19 · n=2,053 · Kelly Ayotte (R) 50%, Jon Kiper (D) 39% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · co/efficient (partisan) · 2025-10-09–2025-10-13 · n=1,034 · Kelly Ayotte (R) 43%, Generic Democrat 40% · release
Signals (experimental)
Attention 46 Vector D · Open
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
Vugol Me Vector (experimental)
Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: high
Daily precision telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans
Sources
- Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 c1efe5eb0345 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Band: Toss-up (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.