IA2026

Governor · Iowa · 2026

Name: Governor, Iowa — Vugol Me Attention & Vector
Creator: Vugol Me
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

General election · 2 on the certified November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)

Community poll

Model rating Leans Republican (Tilting) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.

11 polls on file from pollsters we have not verified yet — shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 3 of 7, updated yesterday. Sources · What is validated

News attention 50/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 3 days ago. How it works

On the November ballot (2)

Certified by the state on 2026-08-19, checked 2026-09-29.

Rob SandGovernor — IADemocraticOn the ballotFEC raisednot on file Zach LahnGovernor — IARepublicanOn the ballotFEC raisednot on file

Official source: https://sos.iowa.gov/sites/default/files/2026-08/2026%20General%20-%20Candidate%20List%20Database%20-%20All%20Elections_1.pdf

Latest verified field polling

Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.

none yet

No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.

Polling average

no verified inputs yet

11 polls on file for this race, all from quarantined (U-tier) pollsters — visible below, not yet averaged.

Rob Sand (D)Zach Lahn (R)● verified poll · ○ quarantined poll · ◎ live average

Results

Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.

Democratic primary

Rob Sand won	189,442	99.6%

Republican primary · official results

Zach Lahn won	80,765	37.7%
Randy Feenstra	79,113	36.9%
Adam Steen	31,087	14.5%
Brad Sherman	15,076	7.0%
Eddie Andrews	7,694	3.6%

Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-29 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0

Key dates

Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.

2026-06-02 — Primary election: U.S. Senate
2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. House

Source: FEC election dates (public domain).

Primary and hypothetical polls (5)

Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.

Republican primary · JMC Analytics (partisan) · 2026-05-27–2026-05-28 · n=550 · Zach Lahn (R) 24%, Randy Feenstra 22%, Adam Steen 15%, Brad Sherman 8%, Eddie Andrews 4% · release
Republican primary · Victory Enterprises (partisan) · 2026-04-14–2026-04-15 · n=500 · Randy Feenstra 41%, Adam Steen 9%, Zach Lahn (R) 8%, Brad Sherman 5%, Eddie Andrews 5% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Echelon Insights · 2026-04-03–2026-04-09 · n=377 · Rob Sand (D) 51%, Randy Feenstra (R) 39% · release
Hypothetical matchup · GBAO (partisan) · 2026-03-10–2026-03-16 · n=1,200 · Rob Sand (D) 50%, Randy Feenstra (R) 42% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Z to A Research (partisan) · 2025-10-09–2025-10-13 · n=1,351 · Rob Sand (D) 45%, Randy Feenstra (R) 43% · release

In the news

Another majority that could be in Democrats’ reach: From the Politics DeskNBC News · Sep 29
Trump announces largest steel plant in American history to be built in IowaNew York Post · Sep 28
Trump announces plans for largest steel plant in U.S. history to be built in IowaCBS News · Sep 28
Republicans say Democrats are extremists. These Democrats want to convince voters that's not trueABC News · Sep 23
Kamala Harris launches into the 2026 midterms as her 2028 decision loomsABC News · Sep 21

Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news

Signals (experimental)

Attention 50 Vector R · Tilting

Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)

Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly

pulse-1.0.0

50OUT OF 100Moderate attention

Attention percentile78th

7-day momentum3 / 100

Source breadth50% of tracked

Vugol Me Vector (experimental)

Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: high

vector-1.1.0

Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean

AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored

Completeness3 of 7 inputs (national, prior, pres) · missing: incumbent, money, pulse, poll

Evidenceno verified poll · fundamentals only

Freshnessoldest input 2026-09-27 (3 days ago)

Vector component signals · estimated margin R +7.6Presidential lean of the seat (2024 R +13.2, national swing D +8.4)R +4.8Last result for this seat (2022 R +18.5, national swing D +8.5)R +10.0National environment: our generic-ballot average is D +7.9 (27 pollsters, as of 2026-09-29), against the 2024 national House vote of R +2.6. The seat's last result and presidential lean move by that swing × 0.8 for this office; polls, incumbency and money do not. How.

Daily precision telemetry

Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans

Sources

Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 64a55762e714 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).

Band: R · Tilting (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.