Who is ahead in the 2026 Alaska Governor race?

Name: Governor, Alaska, Vugol Vector & Vugol Attention
Creator: Vugol Me
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Home / Races / Alaska / Governor

AK2026

Governor · Alaska · 2026

General election · 4 on the certified November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)

VecR 46 · HeldTenD >99%Att62

TV graphic Vugol race poll

Result

Called

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) won this race.

Jonathan Kreiss-TomkinsDemocraticWinnerno count in the source

Also on the ballot, no count in the source: Bernadette Wilson (R), Dave Bronson (R), Treg Taylor (R).

Called: First seen here, Nov 13, 6:27 AM ET
Last updated: Nov 13, 6:27 AM ET
Source: Wikipedia (race summary table) · official results page

Called it: hit Our locked call before polls closed was D; the winner is D. See every locked call

Unofficial until the state certifies the result.

Before the election

Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.

Race poll averageGovernor · Alaska

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins

50%

Bernadette Wilson

29%

Verified poll average · 7 polls · newest poll ended 2026-10-3022% other

D · Anchoredfrom verified polls

Verified polls Kreiss-Tomkins leads Wilson by 20.9 points in our average of verified polls.

7 verified polls averaged, newest ended 2026-10-30. Page updated 2026-11-13. Sources · What is validated

ExperimentalNews attention 62/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated yesterday. How it works

On the Alaska ballot, Nov 3, 2026 Governor, 4 names on the official list. Election Day has passed; see the ballot as it was.Voting in Alaska? Check your registration, get a mail ballot, find your polling place.

On the November ballot (4)

Certified by the state, checked 2026-10-09.

Bernadette WilsonGovernor - AKRepublicanOn the ballotFEC raisednot on file Dave BronsonGovernor - AKRepublicanOn the ballotFEC raisednot on file Jonathan Kreiss-TomkinsGovernor - AKDemocraticOn the ballotFEC raisednot on file Treg TaylorGovernor - AKRepublicanOn the ballotFEC raisednot on file

Official source: https://www.elections.alaska.gov/candidates/?election=26genr

Polling average · 7 verified pollsVerified

Kreiss-Tomkins +21

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins Democratic: 49.6%
Bernadette Wilson Republican: 28.7%
Dave Bronson Republican: 12.3%
Treg Taylor Republican: 9.3%

Latest verified field polling

Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.

7 verified polls

Latest verified pollVerified

Kreiss-Tomkins +17

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins Democratic: 42%
Bernadette Wilson Republican: 25%
Treg Taylor Republican: 8%
Dave Bronson Republican: 7%

Undecided 17%

Cite / verify

Cite thishttps://vugol.me/races/US-AK-GOV

Sourcehttps://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/11/01/polls/times-siena-ak-poll-toplines.html

Retrieved2026-11-13

Polling average Updates as polls arrive

7 verified inputs

49.6% Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins28.7% Bernadette Wilson12.3% Dave Bronson9.3% Treg Taylor

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D)Bernadette Wilson (R)Dave Bronson (R)Treg Taylor (R)● verified poll · ○ quarantined poll · ◎ live average

Vugol Tensor

How far this poll average can miss · a range, not a prediction

tensor-1.0.0

Centre D+20.9. Four times in five the result lands between D+27.6 and D+14.2; nine in ten between D+29.5 and D+12.3. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: >99%.

Same inputs as the Vugol Tensor page: the verified polling average above (7 verified polls), plus how far polls have missed since 1998. In the backtest the plain poll average picked the wrong winner in about 11% of polled, mostly competitive races (11.2%, 946 races, 1998 to 2024), and polls miss together. Not a forecast guarantee. How Tensor works →

Results

Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state’s official results.

Democratic primary · official results

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins Zac Johnson advanced	37,006	22.5%
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins advanced	37,006	22.5%
Tom Begich (withdrew) Julia Hnilicka (withdrew)	34,172	20.8%
Tom Begich (withdrew)	34,172	20.8%

Independent politician primary · official results

Bill Walker Randy Hoffbeck	7,341	4.5%
Bill Walker	7,341	4.5%
Meda DeWitt Christopher Steere	4,184	2.5%
Meda DeWitt	4,184	2.5%
Destry J. Payne Sr.	372	0.2%
Destry J. Payne Sr. Cliff Silvers	372	0.2%

Republican primary · official results

Bernadette Wilson advanced	16,468	10.0%
Bernadette Wilson Mike Shower advanced	16,468	10.0%
Dave Bronson advanced	13,364	8.1%
Dave Bronson Josh Church advanced	13,364	8.1%
Treg Taylor advanced	11,928	7.3%
Treg Taylor Candice English advanced	11,928	7.3%
Click Bishop (withdrew) Greta Schuerch (withdrew)	11,527	7.0%
Click Bishop (withdrew)	11,527	7.0%
Adam Crum Robert Craig	8,922	5.4%
Adam Crum	8,922	5.4%
Shelley Hughes Blake Gettys	8,776	5.4%
Shelley Hughes	8,776	5.4%
Matt Heilala	4,330	2.6%
Matt Heilala Jesse Sumner (withdrew)	4,330	2.6%
Edna DeVries George Hightower	2,167	1.3%
Edna DeVries	2,167	1.3%
Lesil McGuire Elizabeth Rexford	2,098	1.3%
Lesil McGuire	2,098	1.3%
Michael Loren Gilbert Timothy Hickel	675	0.4%
Michael Loren Gilbert	675	0.4%
James W. "JP4" Parkin Ramadhani "Ram" Greer	638	0.4%
James W. "JP4" Parkin	638	0.4%
Henry R. "Hank" Kroll	335	0.2%
Henry R. "Hank" Kroll Tommy R. Nicholson III	335	0.2%

Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-11-02 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0

Key dates

Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.

2026-08-18, Primary election: U.S. House
2026-11-03, General election: U.S. House

Source: FEC election dates (public domain).

Primary and hypothetical polls (15)

Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to that article revision and, where we know it, to the pollster's own site.

Hypothetical matchup · Alaska Survey Research · 2026-10-23–2026-10-25 · n=1,068 · Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) 51%,Bernadette Wilson (R) 31%,Dave Bronson (R) 12%,Treg Taylor (R) 7%,RCV round 1% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Alaska Survey Research · 2026-10-15–2026-10-18 · n=1,568 · Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) 50%,Bernadette Wilson (R) 30%,Dave Bronson (R) 12%,Treg Taylor (R) 8%,RCV round 1% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Alaska Survey Research · 2026-10-01–2026-10-03 · n=1,512 · Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) 48%,Bernadette Wilson (R) 27%,Dave Bronson (R) 15%,Treg Taylor (R) 10%,RCV round 1% · release
primary · Change Research (partisan) · 2026-07-17–2026-07-19 · n=604 · Tom Begich (D) 17%,Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) 15%,Bernadette Wilson (R) 14%,Bill Walker (I) 7%,Dave Bronson (R) 6%,Click Bishop (R) 4% · pollster's site · release
Hypothetical matchup · Alaska Survey Research · 2026-06-30–2026-07-01 · n=1,528 · Tom Begich (D) 22%,Bernadette Wilson (R) 22%,Dave Bronson (R) 17%,Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) 16%,Click Bishop (R) 13%,Bill Walker (I) 11%,RCV round 1% · release
primary · Alaska Survey Research · 2026-06-30–2026-07-01 · n=1,528 · Tom Begich (D) 20%,Bernadette Wilson (R) 15%,Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) 12%,Dave Bronson (R) 11%,Bill Walker (I) 9%,Click Bishop (R) 9% · release
primary · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-06-24–2026-06-25 · n=529 · Tom Begich (D) 16%,Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) 13%,Dave Bronson (R) 13%,Bernadette Wilson (R) 12%,Click Bishop (R) 10%,Bill Walker (I) 8%,Matt Claman (D) 3% · release
primary · Alaska Survey Research · 2026-05-14–2026-05-17 · n=1,401 · Tom Begich (D) 21%,Bernadette Wilson (R) 16%,Dave Bronson (R) 11%,Click Bishop (R) 10%,Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) 8%,Matt Claman (D) 7%,Nancy Dahlstrom (R) 6% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Alaska Survey Research · 2026-04-16–2026-04-19 · n=1,923 · Tom Begich (D) 41%,Bernadette Wilson (R) 22%,Click Bishop (R) 19%,Dave Bronson (R) 19% · release
primary · Alaska Survey Research · 2026-04-16–2026-04-19 · n=1,612 · Tom Begich (D) 19%,Bernadette Wilson (R) 14%,Dave Bronson (R) 10%,Click Bishop (R) 9% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Data for Progress (partisan) · 2025-07-21–2025-07-27 · n=584 · Mary Peltola (D) 47%,Bernadette Wilson (R) 13%,Nancy Dahlstrom (R) 13%,Tom Begich (D) 8%,Click Bishop (R) 8%,Adam Crum (R) 5%,Edna DeVries (R) 3%,Treg Taylor (R) 3%,RCV round 1% · pollster's site · release
primary · Data for Progress (partisan) · 2025-07-21–2025-07-27 · n=678 · Mary Peltola (D) 40%,Bernadette Wilson (R) 11%,Nancy Dahlstrom (R) 10%,Click Bishop (R) 6%,Tom Begich (D) 6%,Adam Crum (R) 4%,Treg Taylor (R) 3%,Edna DeVries (R) 2% · pollster's site · release
primary · Cygnal (partisan) · 2025-07-24–2025-07-27 · n=500 · Bernadette Wilson (R) 17%,Nancy Dahlstrom (R) 11%,Mary Peltola (D) 9% · pollster's site · release
Hypothetical matchup · Data for Progress (partisan) · 2025-02-28–2025-03-07 · n=1,000 · Mary Peltola (D) 44%,Nancy Dahlstrom (R) 34% · pollster's site · release
Hypothetical matchup · Data for Progress (partisan) · 2025-02-28–2025-03-07 · n=1,000 · Mary Peltola (D) 46%,Nick Begich (R) 46% · pollster's site · release

In the news

At the Races: Regional realignmentRoll Call · Nov 12
Trump-backed Alaska candidate blasts 'so-called Republican' Murkowski for endorsing DemFox News · Oct 30
GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski endorses Democratic candidate in Alaska governor’s raceNBC News · Oct 27
Voters weigh governors’ races – and other big local electionsChristian Science Monitor · Nov 2
'Decoy Dan' Sullivan case leads top senator to break four-year X silence: 'Pattern of Lies'Fox News · Oct 29
How a Democrat Positioned Himself to Be Alaska’s Next GovernorNew York Times · Oct 21
At the Races: Red-y, set, voteRoll Call · Oct 29
Murkowski snubs Trump-backed Alaska candidate, endorses Democrat for governorFox News · Oct 28
Trump went all the way to Alaska in a sign of just how close its Senate race may beABC News · Oct 13
Murkowski backs Alaska Democrat for governorThe Hill · Oct 27

Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news

Lab

Vugol Vector & Vugol Attention

Vugol Attention 62 Vugol Vector R · Held

Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.

Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)

Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly

attention-1.0.0

62OUT OF 100Moderate attention

Vugol Attention percentile98th

7-day momentum11 / 100

Source breadth50% of tracked

Vugol Vector

Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: high

vector-1.1.0

Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean

AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored

Completeness4 of 7 inputs (national, prior, pres, pulse) · missing: incumbent, money, poll

Evidenceno audit release · fundamentals only

Freshnessoldest input 2026-11-12 (yesterday)

The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.

Desk data: daily telemetry

Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans

Sources

Roster, official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
Vugol Attention inputs, Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
Polls and results, individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
Models attention-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 f8e862e60968 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).

Vugol Vector band: R · Held. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.

The four Vugol signals, side by side

They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.

Vugol Vector: Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
Vugol Tensor: How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
Vugol Attention: How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
Vugol Pulse: Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.