AK2026

Governor · Alaska · 2026

Name: Governor, Alaska — Vugol Me Attention & Vector
Creator: Vugol Me
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

General election · 4 on the certified November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)

Community poll

Model rating Leans Republican (Held) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.

2 polls on file from pollsters we have not verified yet — shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 4 of 7, updated today. Sources · What is validated

News attention 48/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 3 days ago. How it works

On the November ballot (4)

Certified by the state, checked 2026-09-29.

Bernadette WilsonGovernor — AKRepublicanFEC raisednot on file Dave BronsonGovernor — AKRepublicanFEC raisednot on file Jonathan Kreiss-TomkinsGovernor — AKDemocraticFEC raisednot on file Treg TaylorGovernor — AKRepublicanFEC raisednot on file

Official source: https://www.elections.alaska.gov/candidates/?election=26genr

Latest verified field polling

Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.

none yet

No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.

Polling average

no verified inputs yet

2 polls on file for this race, all from quarantined (U-tier) pollsters — visible below, not yet averaged.

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D)Bernadette Wilson (R)Dave Bronson (R)Treg Taylor (R)● verified poll · ○ quarantined poll · ◎ live average

Results

Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.

Democratic primary · official results

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins Zac Johnson won	37,006	22.5%
Tom Begich (withdrew) Julia Hnilicka (withdrew)	34,172	20.8%

Independent politician primary · official results

Bill Walker Randy Hoffbeck	7,341	4.5%
Meda DeWitt Christopher Steere	4,184	2.5%
Destry J. Payne Sr. Cliff Silvers	372	0.2%

Republican primary · official results

Bernadette Wilson Mike Shower advanced	16,468	10.0%
Dave Bronson Josh Church advanced	13,364	8.1%
Treg Taylor Candice English advanced	11,928	7.3%
Click Bishop (withdrew) Greta Schuerch (withdrew)	11,527	7.0%
Adam Crum Robert Craig	8,922	5.4%
Shelley Hughes Blake Gettys	8,776	5.4%
Matt Heilala Jesse Sumner (withdrew)	4,330	2.6%
Edna DeVries George Hightower	2,167	1.3%
Lesil McGuire Elizabeth Rexford	2,098	1.3%
Michael Loren Gilbert Timothy Hickel	675	0.4%
James W. "JP4" Parkin Ramadhani "Ram" Greer	638	0.4%
Henry R. "Hank" Kroll Tommy R. Nicholson III	335	0.2%

Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-30 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0

Key dates

Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.

2026-08-18 — Primary election: U.S. House
2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. House

Source: FEC election dates (public domain).

Primary and hypothetical polls (12)

Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.

primary · Change Research (partisan) · 2026-07-17–2026-07-19 · n=604 · Tom Begich (D) 17%, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) 15%, Bernadette Wilson (R) 14%, Bill Walker (I) 7%, Dave Bronson (R) 6%, Click Bishop (R) 4% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Alaska Survey Research · 2026-06-30–2026-07-01 · n=1,528 · Tom Begich (D) 22%, Bernadette Wilson (R) 22%, Dave Bronson (R) 17%, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) 16%, Click Bishop (R) 13%, Bill Walker (I) 11%, RCV round 1% · release
primary · Alaska Survey Research · 2026-06-30–2026-07-01 · n=1,528 · Tom Begich (D) 20%, Bernadette Wilson (R) 15%, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) 12%, Dave Bronson (R) 11%, Bill Walker (I) 9%, Click Bishop (R) 9% · release
primary · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-06-24–2026-06-25 · n=529 · Tom Begich (D) 16%, Dave Bronson (R) 13%, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) 13%, Bernadette Wilson (R) 12%, Click Bishop (R) 10%, Bill Walker (I) 8%, Matt Claman (D) 3% · release
primary · Alaska Survey Research · 2026-05-14–2026-05-17 · n=1,401 · Tom Begich (D) 21%, Bernadette Wilson (R) 16%, Dave Bronson (R) 11%, Click Bishop (R) 10%, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) 8%, Matt Claman (D) 7%, Nancy Dahlstrom (R) 6% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Alaska Survey Research · 2026-04-16–2026-04-19 · n=1,923 · Tom Begich (D) 41%, Bernadette Wilson (R) 22%, Dave Bronson (R) 19%, Click Bishop (R) 19% · release
primary · Alaska Survey Research · 2026-04-16–2026-04-19 · n=1,612 · Tom Begich (D) 19%, Bernadette Wilson (R) 14%, Dave Bronson (R) 10%, Click Bishop (R) 9% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Data for Progress (partisan) · 2025-07-21–2025-07-27 · n=584 · Mary Peltola (D) 47%, Bernadette Wilson (R) 13%, Nancy Dahlstrom (R) 13%, Click Bishop (R) 8%, Tom Begich (D) 8%, Adam Crum (R) 5%, Treg Taylor (R) 3%, Edna DeVries (R) 3%, RCV round 1% · release
primary · Data for Progress (partisan) · 2025-07-21–2025-07-27 · n=678 · Mary Peltola (D) 40%, Bernadette Wilson (R) 11%, Nancy Dahlstrom (R) 10%, Click Bishop (R) 6%, Tom Begich (D) 6%, Adam Crum (R) 4%, Treg Taylor (R) 3%, Edna DeVries (R) 2% · release
primary · Cygnal (partisan) · 2025-07-24–2025-07-27 · n=500 · Bernadette Wilson (R) 17%, Nancy Dahlstrom (R) 11%, Mary Peltola (D) 9% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Data for Progress (partisan) · 2025-02-28–2025-03-07 · n=1,000 · Mary Peltola (D) 44%, Nancy Dahlstrom (R) 34% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Data for Progress (partisan) · 2025-02-28–2025-03-07 · n=1,000 · Mary Peltola (D) 46%, Nick Begich (R) 46% · release

Signals (experimental)

Attention 48 Vector R · Held

Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)

Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly

pulse-1.0.0

48OUT OF 100Moderate attention

Attention percentile77th

7-day momentum0 / 100

Source breadth50% of tracked

Vugol Me Vector (experimental)

Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: high

vector-1.1.0

Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean

AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored

Completeness4 of 7 inputs (national, prior, pres, pulse) · missing: incumbent, money, poll

Evidenceno verified poll · fundamentals only

Freshnessoldest input 2026-09-27 (3 days ago)

Vector component signals · estimated margin R +12.3Presidential lean of the seat (2024 R +13.1, national swing D +8.4)R +4.7Last result for this seat (2022 R +30.6, national swing D +8.5)R +22.1Attention shareR +1.1National environment: our generic-ballot average is D +7.9 (27 pollsters, as of 2026-09-30), against the 2024 national House vote of R +2.6. The seat's last result and presidential lean move by that swing × 0.8 for this office; polls, incumbency and money do not. How.

Daily precision telemetry

Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans

Sources

Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 4735c0356598 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).

Band: R · Held (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.