Holscher +1Within margin of error
- Cindy Holscher Democratic: 48%
- Ty Masterson Republican: 47%
Other 0% · Undecided 5%
KS2026
Governor · Kansas · 2026
General election · 2 on the November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)
Result
CalledCindy Holscher (D) won this race.
- Cindy HolscherDemocraticWinnerno count in the source
Also on the ballot, no count in the source: Ty Masterson (R).
- Called
- Called by Wikipedia editors, Nov 12, 6:54 PM ET (revision)
- Last updated
- Nov 12, 10:23 PM ET
Called it: miss Our locked call before polls closed was R; the winner is D. See every locked call
Unofficial until the state certifies the result.
Before the election
Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.
Race poll averageGovernor · Kansas
Cindy Holscher
49%
Ty Masterson
51%
Verified poll average · 7 polls · newest poll ended 2026-11-01
Verified polls Masterson leads Holscher by 1.8 points in our average of verified polls.
7 verified polls averaged, newest ended 2026-11-01. Page updated 2026-11-14. Sources · What is validated
ExperimentalNews attention 56/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated yesterday. How it works
On the November ballot (2)
From reported primary results, checked 2026-11-14. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.
Ballot source: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2026_Kansas_gubernatorial_election&oldid=1385586372
Masterson +1.8
- Cindy Holscher Democratic: 49.1%
- Ty Masterson Republican: 50.9%
Latest verified field polling
Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.
Cite / verify
Cite thishttps://vugol.me/races/US-KS-GOV
Sourcehttps://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/11/01/polls/times-siena-ks-poll-toplines.html
Retrieved2026-11-14
Polling average Updates as polls arrive
50.9% Ty Masterson49.1% Cindy Holscher
Cindy Holscher (D)Ty Masterson (R)● verified poll · ○ quarantined poll · ◎ live average
Vugol Tensor
How far this poll average can miss · a range, not a prediction
Centre R+1.8. Four times in five the result lands between D+4.9 and R+8.5; nine in ten between D+6.8 and R+10.4. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: 37%.
Same inputs as the Vugol Tensor page: the verified polling average above (7 verified polls), plus how far polls have missed since 1998. In the backtest the plain poll average picked the wrong winner in about 11% of polled, mostly competitive races (11.2%, 946 races, 1998 to 2024), and polls miss together. Not a forecast guarantee. How Tensor works →
Results
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state’s official results.
Democratic primary
| Cindy Holscher advanced | 108,478 | 48.6% |
| Cindy Holscher KC Ohaebosim advanced | 108,478 | 48.6% |
| Ethan Corson | 86,623 | 38.8% |
| Ethan Corson Renee Duxler | 86,623 | 38.8% |
| Curt Skoog Jennifer Bacani McKenny | 28,024 | 12.6% |
| Curt Skoog | 28,024 | 12.6% |
Republican primary
| Ty Masterson advanced | 147,213 | 43.2% |
| Ty Masterson Jeff Klemp advanced | 147,213 | 43.2% |
| Philip Sarnecki Joy Eakins | 76,292 | 22.4% |
| Philip Sarnecki | 76,292 | 22.4% |
| Vicki Schmidt | 46,693 | 13.7% |
| Vicki Schmidt Joe Newland | 46,693 | 13.7% |
| Scott Schwab | 37,318 | 10.9% |
| Scott Schwab Ken Rahjes | 37,318 | 10.9% |
| Charlotte O'Hara | 14,493 | 4.3% |
| Charlotte O'Hara Michelle Dombrosky | 14,493 | 4.3% |
| Stacy Rogers Michael Smith | 11,789 | 3.5% |
| Stacy Rogers | 11,789 | 3.5% |
| Nick Reinecker Katy Reinecker | 7,122 | 2.1% |
| Nick Reinecker | 7,122 | 2.1% |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-11-14 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-04-25, Election: U.S. House
- 2026-08-04, Primary election: U.S. Senate
- 2026-11-03, General election: U.S. House
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (2)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to that article revision and, where we know it, to the pollster's own site.
- Democratic primary · Change Research (partisan) · 2026-06-11–2026-06-15 · n=1,022 · Cindy Holscher (D) 37%,Ethan Corson 10%,Curt Skoog 7% · pollster's site · release
- Democratic primary · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-01-08–2026-01-09 · n=699 · Cindy Holscher (D) 33%,Ethan Corson 9% · release
In the news
- Dem Cindy Holscher elected as Kansas’ next governor in latest blue wave midterms win
- Cindy Holscher wins in Kansas, holding governor's office for Democrats
- Live updates: Huang exits Nvidia; Democrat locks down Kansas governor's mansion
- Democrat Cindy Holscher is elected Kansas' next governor, extending her party's wave of victories
- Cindy Holscher wins in Kansas, holding governor's office for Democrats
- Cindy Holscher wins Kansas governor's mansion, keeping it in Democrats' hands
- Democrat Cindy Holscher wins Kansas governor's race, extending party's hold on governor's mansion
- Democrat Cindy Holscher defeats Republican Ty Masterson in Kansas governor’s race
- At the Races: Regional realignment
- Voters send a resounding message against data centers
Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news
LabVugol Vector & Vugol Attention
Vugol Attention 56 Vugol Vector D · Open
Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
56OUT OF 100Moderate attention
Vugol Attention percentile87th
7-day momentum7 / 100
Source breadth50% of tracked
Candidate attention share · trailing 7 days0% D · 100% R
Ty Masterson (R) 100% · volume 44 / 7d
Vugol Vector
Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: high
Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean
AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored
Completeness3 of 7 inputs (national, prior, pres) · missing: incumbent, money, pulse, poll
Evidenceno audit release · fundamentals only
Freshnessoldest input 2026-11-13 (yesterday)
The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.
Desk data: daily telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans
Sources
- Roster, official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Vugol Attention inputs, Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results, individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models attention-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 a6c547e50026 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Vugol Vector band: Toss-up. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.
The four Vugol signals, side by side
They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.
- Vugol Vector
- Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
- Vugol Tensor
- How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
- Vugol Attention
- How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
- Vugol Pulse
- Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.