Janoo +8
- Amanda Janoo Democratic: 51%
- Phil Scott Republican: 43%
Other 2% · Undecided 1%
VT2026
Governor · Vermont · 2026
General election · 5 on the certified November ballot · Incumbent running
Result
CalledPhil Scott (R) won this race with 52.4% of the vote, 6.6 points ahead.
- Phil ScottRepublicanIncumbentWinner52.4%162,048 votes
- Amanda JanooDemocratic45.8%141,631 votes
- Brian JuddIndependent0.8%2,614 votes
- June GoodbandG0.4%1,227 votes
- Dean RoyFreedom and Unity0.4%1,137 votes
- Margin
- 20,417 votes (6.6 points)
- Called
- Called by Wikipedia editors, Nov 3, 11:32 PM ET (revision)
- Last updated
- Nov 14, 6:05 AM ET
- Source
- Wikipedia · official results page
Called it: miss Our locked call before polls closed was D; the winner is R. See every locked call
Unofficial until the state certifies the result.
Before the election
Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.
Race poll averageGovernor · Vermont
Amanda Janoo
54%
Phil Scott
46%
Verified poll average · 4 polls · newest poll ended 2026-10-31
Verified polls Janoo leads Scott by 8.3 points in our average of verified polls.
4 verified polls averaged, newest ended 2026-10-31. Page updated 2026-11-15. Sources · What is validated
ExperimentalNews attention 30/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 3 days ago. How it works
On the November ballot (5)
Certified by the state, checked 2026-11-14.
Official source: https://outside.vermont.gov/dept/sos/Elections_Division/election_info_resources/candidates/2026_general_election_qualified_candidates.xlsx
Janoo +8.3
- Amanda Janoo Democratic: 54.2%
- Phil Scott Republican: Incumbent45.8%
Latest verified field polling
Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.
Cite / verify
Cite thishttps://vugol.me/races/US-VT-GOV
Sourcehttps://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/1012/
Retrieved2026-11-15
Polling average Updates as polls arrive
54.2% Amanda Janoo45.8% Phil Scott
Amanda Janoo (D)Phil Scott (R)● verified poll · ○ quarantined poll · ◎ live average
Vugol Tensor
How far this poll average can miss · a range, not a prediction
Centre D+8.3. Four times in five the result lands between D+15.0 and D+1.6; nine in ten between D+16.9 and R+0.3. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: 94%.
Same inputs as the Vugol Tensor page: the verified polling average above (4 verified polls), plus how far polls have missed since 1998. In the backtest the plain poll average picked the wrong winner in about 11% of polled, mostly competitive races (11.2%, 946 races, 1998 to 2024), and polls miss together. Not a forecast guarantee. How Tensor works →
Results
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state’s official results.
general election
| Phil Scott (incumbent) won | 162,048 | 52.4% |
| Amanda Janoo | 141,631 | 45.8% |
| Brian Judd | 2,614 | 0.8% |
| June Goodband | 1,227 | 0.4% |
| Dean Roy | 1,137 | 0.4% |
Republican primary · official results
| Phil Scott (incumbent) won | 21,466 | 98.5% |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-11-14 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-08-11, Primary election: U.S. House
- 2026-11-03, General election: U.S. House
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (4)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to that article revision and, where we know it, to the pollster's own site.
- Hypothetical matchup · University of New Hampshire · 2026-07-15–2026-07-20 · n=954 · Phil Scott (R) 43%,Aly Richards (D) 35% · pollster's site · release
- Democratic primary · University of New Hampshire · 2026-07-15–2026-07-20 · n=560 · Amanda Janoo (D) 26%,Aly Richards 19% · pollster's site · release
- Democratic primary · University of New Hampshire · 2026-06-18–2026-06-23 · n=511 · Amanda Janoo (D) 20%,Aly Richards 12% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · University of New Hampshire · 2026-06-18–2026-06-23 · n=887 · Phil Scott (R) 41%,Aly Richards (D) 25% · pollster's site · release
In the news
- At the Races: Regional realignment
- An hour-by-hour guide to watching the 2026 midterms, and when we’ll know who controls Congress
- Another majority that could be in Democrats’ reach: From the Politics Desk
- As GOP braces for a blue wave, New England might provide some pops of red
- Fox News Power Rankings: The biggest surprises come after October
- Rating changes: 30 races shift toward Democrats
- At the Races: Unleash Obama
Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news
LabVugol Vector & Vugol Attention
Vugol Attention 30 Vugol Vector R · Open
Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
30OUT OF 100Low attention
Vugol Attention percentile40th
7-day momentum2 / 100
Source breadth50% of tracked
Candidate attention share · trailing 7 days0% D · 100% R
Phil Scott (R) 100% · volume 9 / 7d
Vugol Vector
Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: high
Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean
AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored
Completeness4 of 7 inputs (national, prior, pres, incumbent) · missing: money, pulse, poll
Evidenceno audit release · fundamentals only
Freshnessoldest input 2026-11-12 (3 days ago)
The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.
Desk data: daily telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans
Sources
- Roster, official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Vugol Attention inputs, Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results, individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models attention-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 cb123a43c3de · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Vugol Vector band: Toss-up. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.
The four Vugol signals, side by side
They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.
- Vugol Vector
- Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
- Vugol Tensor
- How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
- Vugol Attention
- How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
- Vugol Pulse
- Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.