Insights: what the 2026 results and polls show

From the results

• How our forecast didEvery Vugol Vector call locked Nov 2, scored against the reported winners, misses included.Scored as races are called
• Seats that changed partySenate seats won by the other party, read from state results and checked against a second source.Unofficial, not yet certified
• Early races vs. our callsThe bellwether races: the margin we called next to the margin counted so far.
• Every winner, with its sourceReported winners newest first, each with when it was called and where it came from.

State results, as published

• Florida resultsResults as published by Florida's official election sources.
• Georgia resultsResults as published by Georgia's official election sources.
• Mississippi resultsResults as published by Mississippi's official election sources.
• Texas resultsResults as published by Texas's official election sources.

From the polls

• Polls vs. fundamentalsWhere the verified poll average and the fundamentals-only model pointed the same way, and where not.Before the vote
• Presidential approvalOur average of the approval trackers, before and after Election Day.
• Generic ballotThe national congressional vote question, from verified polls.
• Early voteBallots cast before Election Day where states reported them.Pre-election data, not final turnout

Not here yet

• Turnout. States are still counting and certifying; we will publish turnout only from official totals.Not yet published
• Exit polls and demographic breakdowns. We do not report exit polls and hold no voter-level data, so we do not estimate how groups voted.Not something we publish

How a race is called and where results come from: How we count and results sources. What we published before the vote: Before the vote.