GA2026

U.S. Senate · Georgia · 2026

Name: U.S. Senate, Georgia — Vugol Me Attention & Vector
Creator: Vugol Me
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

General election · 2 on the November ballot · Incumbent running

Community poll

Model rating Leans Democratic (Tilting) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.

17 polls on file from pollsters we have not verified yet — shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 4 of 7, updated today. Sources · What is validated

News attention 15/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 11 days ago. How it works

On the November ballot (2)

From reported primary results, checked 2026-09-30. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.

T. Jonathan OssoffU.S. Senate — GA · FEC S8GA00180Democratic IncumbentOn the ballotFEC raised$98.0M Michael A Collins Jr.U.S. Senate — GA · FEC S6GA00390RepublicanOn the ballotFEC raised$7.4M

Ran in the primary (2)

Lost a primary or runoff for this seat — not on the November ballot.

Derek DooleyU.S. Senate — GA · FEC S6GA00408RepublicanLost primaryFEC raisednot on file Jonathan McColumnU.S. Senate — GA · FEC S2GA00282RepublicanLost primaryFEC raised$36K

Other filers (4)

Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.

Christina Loren Truste ClementU.S. Senate — GA · FEC S6GA00366RepublicanNot on the November ballotFEC raisednot on file Earl Leroy CarterU.S. Senate — GA · FEC S6GA00374RepublicanNot on the November ballotFEC raised$7.3M John KingU.S. Senate — GA · FEC S6GA00382RepublicanNot on the November ballotFEC raised$563K Reagan BoxU.S. Senate — GA · FEC S6GA00267RepublicanNot on the November ballotFEC raised$34K

Ballot source: https://results.sos.ga.gov/results/public/Georgia/elections/GeneralPrimary51926?party=DEM

Latest verified field polling

Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.

none yet

No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.

Polling average

no verified inputs yet

17 polls on file for this race, all from quarantined (U-tier) pollsters — visible below, not yet averaged.

Jon Ossoff (D)Mike Collins (R)● verified poll · ○ quarantined poll · ◎ live average

Campaign money (FEC)

Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Through
T. Jonathan Ossoff Democratic	$97,986,263	$59,730,546	$42,587,451	2026-06-30
Christina Loren Truste Clement Republican	$0	$0	$0	2026-09-30
Derek Dooley Republican	$0	$0	$0	2026-09-30
Earl Leroy Carter Republican	$7,300,243	$10,259,563	$59,610	2026-06-30
John King Republican	$563,078	$563,078	$0	2026-01-31
Jonathan McColumn Republican	$36,144	$23,433	$12,412	2026-03-31
Michael A Collins Jr. Republican	$7,409,350	$5,932,539	$2,079,981	2026-06-30
Reagan Box Republican	$33,606	$26,130	$8,043	2024-12-31

Results

Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.

Republican primary runoff · official results

Mike Collins won	390,174	55.5%
Derek Dooley	312,339	44.5%

Democratic primary · official results

Jon Ossoff (incumbent) won	1,042,331	100.0%

Republican primary · official results

Mike Collins advanced	369,642	40.5%
Derek Dooley advanced	275,534	30.2%
Buddy Carter	229,223	25.1%
Jonathan McColumn	28,447	3.1%
John F. Coyne III	9,850	1.1%

Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-30 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0

Key dates

Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.

2026-05-19 — Primary election: U.S. Senate
2026-06-16 — Runoff: U.S. Senate
2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. Senate
2026-12-01 — General runoff: U.S. Senate

Source: FEC election dates (public domain).

Primary and hypothetical polls (40)

Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.

Republican primary runoff · InsiderAdvantage (partisan) · 2026-06-15–2026-06-15 · n=800 · Mike Collins (R) 50%, Derek Dooley (R) 48% · release
Republican primary runoff · InsiderAdvantage (partisan) · 2026-06-13–2026-06-14 · n=800 · Mike Collins (R) 48%, Derek Dooley (R) 46% · release
Republican primary runoff · JMC Analytics (partisan) · 2026-05-26–2026-05-27 · n=600 · Mike Collins (R) 55%, Derek Dooley (R) 39% · release
Republican primary runoff · InsiderAdvantage (partisan) · 2026-05-20–2026-05-21 · n=800 · Mike Collins (R) 46%, Derek Dooley (R) 41% · release
Republican primary runoff · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2026-05-20–2026-05-20 · n=782 · Mike Collins (R) 54%, Derek Dooley (R) 37% · release
Republican primary · InsiderAdvantage (partisan) · 2026-05-16–2026-05-17 · n=800 · Mike Collins (R) 32%, Derek Dooley (R) 26%, Buddy Carter 21% · release
Republican primary · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2026-04-28–2026-05-02 · n=1,677 · Mike Collins (R) 33%, Derek Dooley (R) 23%, Buddy Carter 14% · release
Republican primary · University of Georgia · 2026-04-18–2026-04-26 · n=1,000 · Mike Collins (R) 22%, Buddy Carter 13%, Derek Dooley (R) 11% · release
Republican primary · Cygnal (partisan) · 2026-04-22–2026-04-23 · n=600 · Mike Collins (R) 30%, Derek Dooley (R) 12%, Buddy Carter 11% · release
Republican primary · InsiderAdvantage (partisan) · 2026-04-22–2026-04-23 · n=800 · Mike Collins (R) 27%, Buddy Carter 24%, Derek Dooley (R) 16% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Echelon Insights (partisan) · 2026-04-03–2026-04-09 · n=407 · Jon Ossoff (D) 52%, Buddy Carter (R) 43% · release
Republican primary · JMC Analytics · 2026-03-07–2026-03-08 · n=560 · Mike Collins (R) 31%, Derek Dooley (R) 13%, Buddy Carter 11% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Emerson College · 2026-02-28–2026-03-02 · n=1,000 · Jon Ossoff (D) 49%, Derek Dooley (R) 41% · release
Republican primary · Emerson College · 2026-02-28–2026-03-02 · n=453 · Mike Collins (R) 30%, Buddy Carter 16%, Derek Dooley (R) 10% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Emerson College · 2026-02-28–2026-03-02 · n=1,000 · Jon Ossoff (D) 47%, Buddy Carter (R) 44% · release
Republican primary · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2026-02-17–2026-02-18 · n=1,337 · Mike Collins (R) 36%, Buddy Carter 11%, Derek Dooley (R) 9% · release
Republican primary · Rasmussen Reports (partisan) · 2026-02-11–2026-02-12 · n=1,022 · Mike Collins (R) 34%, Buddy Carter 19%, Derek Dooley (R) 11% · release
Republican primary · Plymouth Union Public Research (partisan) · 2026-01-13–2026-01-15 · n=600 · Mike Collins (R) 32%, Buddy Carter 16%, Derek Dooley (R) 12% · release
Republican primary · InsiderAdvantage (partisan) · 2025-12-18–2025-12-19 · n=1,000 · Mike Collins (R) 25%, Buddy Carter 20%, Derek Dooley (R) 12% · release
Republican primary runoff · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2025-10-22–2025-10-23 · n=1,320 · Mike Collins (R) 42%, Derek Dooley (R) 24% · release
Republican primary · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2025-10-22–2025-10-23 · n=1,320 · Mike Collins (R) 28%, Buddy Carter 16%, Derek Dooley (R) 16% · release
Republican primary runoff · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2025-10-22–2025-10-23 · n=1,320 · Mike Collins (R) 38%, Buddy Carter 23% · release
Republican primary runoff · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2025-10-22–2025-10-23 · n=1,320 · Buddy Carter 33%, Derek Dooley (R) 28% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2025-09-09–2025-09-12 · n=624 · Jon Ossoff (D) 40%, Buddy Carter (R) 37% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2025-09-09–2025-09-12 · n=624 · Jon Ossoff (D) 42%, Derek Dooley (R) 35% · release
Republican primary · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2025-09-09–2025-09-12 · n=253 · Mike Collins (R) 25%, Buddy Carter 20%, Derek Dooley (R) 7% · release
Hypothetical matchup · TIPP Insights · 2025-07-28–2025-08-01 · n=2,956 · Jon Ossoff (D) 44%, Buddy Carter (R) 40% · release
Hypothetical matchup · TIPP Insights · 2025-07-28–2025-08-01 · n=2,956 · Jon Ossoff (D) 44%, Derek Dooley (R) 39% · release
Republican primary · TIPP Insights · 2025-07-28–2025-08-01 · n=1,123 · Mike Collins (R) 25%, Buddy Carter 19%, Derek Dooley (R) 7% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Cygnal (partisan) · 2025-05-15–2025-05-17 · n=800 · Jon Ossoff (D) 46%, Buddy Carter (R) 42% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Cygnal (partisan) · 2025-05-15–2025-05-17 · n=800 · Jon Ossoff (D) 45%, John King (R) 42% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Cygnal (partisan) · 2025-05-15–2025-05-17 · n=800 · Jon Ossoff (D) 46%, Kelly Loeffler 43% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Cygnal (partisan) · 2025-05-15–2025-05-17 · n=800 · Brad Raffensperger (R) 44%, Jon Ossoff (D) 44% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Trafalgar Group (partisan) · 2025-04-24–2025-04-27 · n=1,426 · Jon Ossoff (D) 48%, Marjorie Taylor Greene (R) 37% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Trafalgar Group (partisan) · 2025-04-24–2025-04-27 · n=1,426 · Jon Ossoff (D) 46%, Brad Raffensperger (R) 38% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Atlanta Journal-Constitution · 2025-04-15–2025-04-24 · n=1,000 · Brian Kemp (R) 49%, Jon Ossoff (D) 46% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Atlanta Journal-Constitution · 2025-04-15–2025-04-24 · n=1,000 · Jon Ossoff (D) 51%, John King (R) 38% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Atlanta Journal-Constitution · 2025-04-15–2025-04-24 · n=1,000 · Jon Ossoff (D) 48%, Brad Raffensperger (R) 39% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Atlanta Journal-Constitution · 2025-04-15–2025-04-24 · n=1,000 · Jon Ossoff (D) 54%, Marjorie Taylor Greene (R) 37% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2025-02-11–2025-02-13 · n=800 · Brian Kemp (R) 48%, Jon Ossoff (D) 45% · release

Signals (experimental)

Attention 15 Vector D · Tilting

Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)

Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly

pulse-1.0.0

15OUT OF 100Low attention

Attention percentile0th

7-day momentum50 / 100

Source breadth0% of tracked

Vugol Me Vector (experimental)

Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: medium

vector-1.1.0

Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean

AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored

Completeness4 of 7 inputs (national, pres, incumbent, money) · missing: prior, pulse, poll

Evidenceno verified poll · fundamentals only

Freshnessoldest input 2026-09-19 (11 days ago)

Vector component signals · estimated margin D +7.6Presidential lean of the seat (2024 R +2.2, national swing D +10.5)D +8.3Fundraising velocity (FEC)D +8.0IncumbencyD +6.0National environment: our generic-ballot average is D +7.9 (27 pollsters, as of 2026-09-30), against the 2024 national House vote of R +2.6. The seat's last result and presidential lean move by that swing; polls, incumbency and money do not. How.

Daily precision telemetry

Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans

Sources

Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 85d15e8c0b13 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).

Band: D · Tilting (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.