Who is ahead in the 2026 New Mexico Governor race?

Name: Governor, New Mexico, Vugol Vector & Vugol Attention
Creator: Vugol Me
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Deb Haaland (D) won the NM Governor race. Haaland leads Hull by 6.8 points in our average of verified polls. Verified poll average · 3 polls · newest poll ended 2026-09-30. Updated 2026-11-14.

Home / Races / New Mexico / Governor

NM2026

Governor · New Mexico · 2026

General election · 2 on the November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)

VecD 61 · HeldTenD 90%Att56

TV graphic Vugol race poll

Result

Called

Deb Haaland (D) won this race.

Deb HaalandDemocraticWinnerno count in the source

Also on the ballot, no count in the source: Gregg Hull (R).

Called: Called by Wikipedia editors, Nov 3, 11:32 PM ET (revision)
Last updated: Nov 4, 10:47 AM ET
Source: Wikipedia (race summary table) · official results page

Called it: hit Our locked call before polls closed was D; the winner is D. See every locked call

Unofficial until the state certifies the result.

Before the election

Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.

Race poll averageGovernor · New Mexico

Deb Haaland

53%

Gregg Hull

47%

Verified poll average · 3 polls · newest poll ended 2026-09-30

D · Tiltingfrom verified polls

Verified polls Haaland leads Hull by 6.8 points in our average of verified polls.

3 verified polls averaged, newest ended 2026-09-30. Page updated 2026-11-14. Sources · What is validated

ExperimentalNews attention 56/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 13 days ago. How it works

On the New Mexico ballot, Nov 3, 2026 Governor and Lieutenant Governor, 2 names on the official list. Election Day has passed; see the ballot as it was.Voting in New Mexico? Check your registration, get a mail ballot, find your polling place.

On the November ballot (2)

From reported primary results, checked 2026-11-14. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.

Deb HaalandGovernor - NM · FEC H8NM01331DemocraticOn the ballotFEC raisednot on file Gregg HullGovernor - NMRepublicanOn the ballotFEC raisednot on file

Other filers (1)

Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.

David GallegosGovernor - NMRepublicanNot on the November ballotFEC raisednot on file

Ballot source: https://electionresults.sos.nm.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=SW&map=CTY

Polling average · 3 verified pollsVerified

Haaland +6.8

Deb Haaland Democratic: 53.4%
Gregg Hull Republican: 46.6%

Latest verified field polling

Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.

3 verified polls

Latest verified pollVerified

Haaland +6Within margin of error

Deb Haaland Democratic: 47%
Gregg Hull Republican: 41%

Cite / verify

Cite thishttps://vugol.me/races/US-NM-GOV

Sourcehttps://www.kob.com/new-mexico/kob-poll-finds-haaland-leading-hull-by-6-points-in-head-to-head-race/

Retrieved2026-11-14

Polling average Updates as polls arrive

3 verified inputs

53.4% Deb Haaland46.6% Gregg Hull

Deb Haaland (D)Gregg Hull (R)● verified poll · ○ quarantined poll · ◎ live average

Vugol Tensor

How far this poll average can miss · a range, not a prediction

tensor-1.0.0

Centre D+6.8. Four times in five the result lands between D+13.5 and D+0.1; nine in ten between D+15.4 and R+1.8. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: 90%.

Same inputs as the Vugol Tensor page: the verified polling average above (3 verified polls), plus how far polls have missed since 1998. In the backtest the plain poll average picked the wrong winner in about 11% of polled, mostly competitive races (11.2%, 946 races, 1998 to 2024), and polls miss together. Not a forecast guarantee. How Tensor works →

Results

Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state’s official results.

Democratic primary · official results

Deb Haaland won	158,713	72.3%
Sam Bregman	60,619	27.7%

Republican primary

Gregg Hull won	56,708	47.0%
Doug Turner	44,480	36.9%
Duke Rodriguez	19,393	16.1%

Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-11-14 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0

Key dates

Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.

2026-06-02, Primary election: U.S. House
2026-11-03, General election: U.S. House

Source: FEC election dates (public domain).

Primary and hypothetical polls (12)

Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to that article revision and, where we know it, to the pollster's own site.

Republican primary · Public Opinion Strategies (partisan) · 2026-05-18–2026-05-20 · n=400 · Gregg Hull (R) 33%,Doug Turner 30%,Duke Rodriguez 12% · pollster's site · release
Republican primary · Research & Polling Inc. · 2026-04-24–2026-05-01 · n=477 · Gregg Hull (R) 30%,Doug Turner 21%,Duke Rodriguez 9% · release
Democratic primary · Research & Polling Inc. · 2026-04-17–2026-04-24 · n=534 · Deb Haaland (D) 52%,Sam Bregman 30% · release
Democratic primary · Emerson College · 2026-04-18–2026-04-19 · n=568 · Deb Haaland (D) 40%,Sam Bregman 24% · pollster's site · release
Republican primary · Emerson College · 2026-04-18–2026-04-19 · n=432 · Gregg Hull (R) 21%,Duke Rodriguez 10%,Doug Turner 9% · pollster's site · release
Democratic primary · Change Research (partisan) · 2026-02-21–2026-02-24 · n=696 · Deb Haaland (D) 46%,Sam Bregman 25% · pollster's site · release
Democratic primary · GBAO (partisan) · 2026-02-09–2026-02-12 · n=500 · Deb Haaland (D) 56%,Sam Bregman 26% · release
Democratic primary · Change Research (partisan) · 2026-01-12–2026-01-18 · n=909 · Deb Haaland (D) 50%,Sam Bregman 23% · pollster's site · release
Democratic primary · Change Research (partisan) · 2025-10-08–2025-10-13 · n=1,000 · Deb Haaland (D) 54%,Sam Bregman 22% · pollster's site · release
Democratic primary · GBAO (partisan) · 2025-08-06–2025-08-11 · n=355 · Deb Haaland (D) 55%,Sam Bregman 19% · release
Democratic primary · Change Research (partisan) · 2025-03-09–2025-03-13 · n=1,014 · Deb Haaland (D) 63%,Sam Bregman 14% · pollster's site · release
Democratic primary · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2024-12-04–2024-12-05 · n=557 · Deb Haaland (D) 50%,Sam Bregman 18% · release

In the news

Native American women made history in tribal, state and federal electionsABC News · Nov 8
The biggest winners, losers and surprises from the 2026 midtermsDeseret News · Nov 5
These members of Congress are heading to the governor’s mansionRoll Call · Nov 4
Deb Haaland's New Mexico challengeNPR · Nov 7
At the Races: Unleash ObamaRoll Call · Oct 8
2 Native American women make history in midtermsCBS News · Nov 4
Obama raises more than $13 million for DemocratsCBS News · Oct 9

Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news

Lab

Vugol Vector & Vugol Attention

Vugol Attention 56 Vugol Vector D · Held

Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.

Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)

Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly

attention-1.0.0

56OUT OF 100Moderate attention

Vugol Attention percentile92th

7-day momentum1 / 100

Source breadth50% of tracked

Vugol Vector

Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: high

vector-1.1.0

Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean

AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored

Completeness3 of 7 inputs (national, prior, pres) · missing: incumbent, money, pulse, poll

Evidenceno audit release · fundamentals only

Freshnessoldest input 2026-11-01 (13 days ago)

The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.

Desk data: daily telemetry

Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans

Sources

Roster, official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
Vugol Attention inputs, Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
Polls and results, individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
Models attention-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 9b26e54226ba · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).

Vugol Vector band: D · Held. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.

The four Vugol signals, side by side

They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.

Vugol Vector: Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
Vugol Tensor: How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
Vugol Attention: How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
Vugol Pulse: Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.