Governor · New Mexico · 2026
General election · 2 on the November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)
Model rating Leans Democratic (Held) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.
3 polls on file from pollsters we have not verified yet — shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 4 of 7, updated today. Sources · What is validated
News attention 70/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 3 days ago. How it works
On the November ballot (2)
From reported primary results, checked 2026-09-30. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.
Other filers (1)
Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.
Ballot source: https://electionresults.sos.nm.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=SW&map=CTY
Latest verified field polling
Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.
No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.
Polling average
3 polls on file for this race, all from quarantined (U-tier) pollsters — visible below, not yet averaged.
Results
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.
Democratic primary · official results
| Deb Haaland won | 158,713 | 72.3% |
| Sam Bregman | 60,619 | 27.7% |
Republican primary
| Gregg Hull won | 56,708 | 47.0% |
| Doug Turner | 44,480 | 36.9% |
| Duke Rodriguez | 19,393 | 16.1% |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-30 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-06-02 — Primary election: U.S. House
- 2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. House
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (12)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.
- Republican primary · Public Opinion Strategies (partisan) · 2026-05-18–2026-05-20 · n=400 · Gregg Hull (R) 33%, Doug Turner 30%, Duke Rodriguez 12% · release
- Republican primary · Research & Polling Inc. · 2026-04-24–2026-05-01 · n=477 · Gregg Hull (R) 30%, Doug Turner 21%, Duke Rodriguez 9% · release
- Democratic primary · Research & Polling Inc. · 2026-04-17–2026-04-24 · n=534 · Deb Haaland (D) 52%, Sam Bregman 30% · release
- Democratic primary · Emerson College · 2026-04-18–2026-04-19 · n=568 · Deb Haaland (D) 40%, Sam Bregman 24% · release
- Republican primary · Emerson College · 2026-04-18–2026-04-19 · n=432 · Gregg Hull (R) 21%, Duke Rodriguez 10%, Doug Turner 9% · release
- Democratic primary · Change Research (partisan) · 2026-02-21–2026-02-24 · n=696 · Deb Haaland (D) 46%, Sam Bregman 25% · release
- Democratic primary · GBAO (partisan) · 2026-02-09–2026-02-12 · n=500 · Deb Haaland (D) 56%, Sam Bregman 26% · release
- Democratic primary · Change Research (partisan) · 2026-01-12–2026-01-18 · n=909 · Deb Haaland (D) 50%, Sam Bregman 23% · release
- Democratic primary · Change Research (partisan) · 2025-10-08–2025-10-13 · n=1,000 · Deb Haaland (D) 54%, Sam Bregman 22% · release
- Democratic primary · GBAO (partisan) · 2025-08-06–2025-08-11 · n=355 · Deb Haaland (D) 55%, Sam Bregman 19% · release
- Democratic primary · Change Research (partisan) · 2025-03-09–2025-03-13 · n=1,014 · Deb Haaland (D) 63%, Sam Bregman 14% · release
- Democratic primary · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2024-12-04–2024-12-05 · n=557 · Deb Haaland (D) 50%, Sam Bregman 18% · release
Signals (experimental)
Attention 70 Vector D · Held
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
Vugol Me Vector (experimental)
Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: high
Daily precision telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans
Sources
- Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 85b6b16303f6 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Band: D · Held (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.