MI2026
U.S. Senate · Michigan · 2026
General election · 6 on the November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)
Model rating Leans Democratic (Tilting) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.
37 polls on file from pollsters we have not verified yet — shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 4 of 7, updated yesterday. Sources · What is validated
News attention 55/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated yesterday. How it works
On the November ballot (2)
From reported primary results, checked 2026-09-29. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.
Ran in the primary (2)
Lost a primary or runoff for this seat — not on the November ballot.
Other filers (5)
Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.
Ballot source: https://mvic.sos.state.mi.us/votehistory/Index?type=C&electionDate=8-4-2026
Latest verified field polling
Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.
No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.
Polling average
37 polls on file for this race, all from quarantined (U-tier) pollsters — visible below, not yet averaged.
Abdul El-Sayed (D)Mike Rogers (R)● verified poll · ○ quarantined poll · ◎ live average
Campaign money (FEC)
Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abdul El-Sayed | $14,514,336 | $11,961,573 | $2,552,763 | 2026-07-15 |
| Bernadette Smith | $77,240 | $73,173 | $4,067 | 2026-06-30 |
| Frederick Heurtebise | $10,059 | $10,059 | $0 | 2025-05-03 |
| Genevieve Scott | $83,079 | $80,541 | $2,539 | 2026-06-30 |
| Haley Stevens | $11,884,632 | $9,091,338 | $2,793,294 | 2026-07-15 |
| Joseph Allen Tate | $243,636 | $243,636 | $0 | 2025-09-30 |
| Mallory McMorrow | $11,386,720 | $9,519,089 | $1,867,631 | 2026-07-15 |
| Michael J Rogers | $10,898,177 | $6,680,643 | $4,473,237 | 2026-07-15 |
| Rachel Elizabeth Howard | $10,937 | $6,171 | $4,766 | 2025-09-30 |
Results
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.
Democratic primary · official results
| Abdul El-Sayed won | 744,952 | 48.5% |
| Haley Stevens | 731,160 | 47.5% |
| Mallory McMorrow (withdrawn) | 61,516 | 4.0% |
Republican primary
| Mike Rogers won | 883,328 | 100.0% |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-29 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-08-04 — Primary election: U.S. Senate
- 2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. Senate
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (40)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.
- Hypothetical matchup · EPIC-MRA · 2026-07-24–2026-07-31 · n=600 · Haley Stevens (D) 44%, Mike Rogers (R) 42% · release
- Democratic primary · Zenith Research (partisan) · 2026-07-26–2026-07-30 · n=536 · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 53%, Haley Stevens (D) 34%, Mallory McMorrow (D) 2% · release
- Democratic primary · SoCal Strategies (partisan) · 2026-07-28–2026-07-30 · n=437 · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 56%, Haley Stevens (D) 39% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · SoCal Strategies (partisan) · 2026-07-28–2026-07-30 · n=640 · Haley Stevens (D) 44%, Mike Rogers (R) 42% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Mitchell Research & Communications · 2026-07-28–2026-07-29 · n=672 · Mike Rogers (R) 46%, Haley Stevens (D) 43% · release
- Democratic primary · Mitchell Research & Communications · 2026-07-28–2026-07-29 · n=406 · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 52%, Haley Stevens (D) 38%, Mallory McMorrow (D) 4% · release
- Democratic primary · The Public Sentiment Institute · 2026-07-25–2026-07-29 · n=762 · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 48%, Haley Stevens (D) 40% · release
- Democratic primary · Emerson College · 2026-07-26–2026-07-27 · n=700 · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 54%, Haley Stevens (D) 39%, Mallory McMorrow (D) 2% · release
- Democratic primary · Tavern Research (partisan) · 2026-07-26–2026-07-27 · n=914 · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 46%, Haley Stevens (D) 36%, Mallory McMorrow (D) 4% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Glengariff Group · 2026-07-22–2026-07-24 · n=600 · Haley Stevens (D) 46%, Mike Rogers (R) 45% · release
- Democratic primary · Data for Progress (partisan) · 2026-07-10–2026-07-14 · n=614 · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 54%, Haley Stevens (D) 41% · release
- Democratic primary · Glengariff Group · 2026-07-08–2026-07-11 · n=500 · Haley Stevens (D) 48%, Abdul El-Sayed (D) 41% · release
- Democratic primary · Tavern Research (partisan) · 2026-07-06–2026-07-08 · n=2,211 · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 41%, Haley Stevens (D) 38%, Mallory McMorrow (D) 5% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2026-06-29–2026-06-30 · n=947 · Haley Stevens (D) 45%, Mike Rogers (R) 44% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2026-06-29–2026-06-30 · n=947 · Mike Rogers (R) 45%, Mallory McMorrow (D) 44% · release
- Democratic primary · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2026-06-29–2026-06-30 · n=947 · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 41%, Haley Stevens (D) 36%, Mallory McMorrow (D) 8% · release
- Democratic primary · Tulchin Research (partisan) · 2026-06-24–2026-06-28 · n=500 · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 46%, Haley Stevens (D) 27%, Mallory McMorrow (D) 17% · release
- Democratic primary · Wedgewood Polls · 2026-06-25–2026-06-28 · n=353 · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 46%, Haley Stevens (D) 39%, Mallory McMorrow (D) 9% · release
- Democratic primary · Peak Insights (partisan) · 2026-06-20–2026-06-24 · n=400 · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 39%, Haley Stevens (D) 28%, Mallory McMorrow (D) 18% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Data for Progress (partisan) · 2026-06-15–2026-06-22 · n=709 · Mike Rogers (R) 46%, Haley Stevens (D) 45% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · GQR (partisan) · 2026-06-13–2026-06-18 · n=800 · Generic Democrat 50%, Mike Rogers (R) 42% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Zenith Research (partisan) · 2026-06-11–2026-06-14 · n=602 · Mallory McMorrow (D) 44%, Mike Rogers (R) 42% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Zenith Research (partisan) · 2026-06-11–2026-06-14 · n=602 · Haley Stevens (D) 43%, Mike Rogers (R) 42% · release
- Democratic primary · Susquehanna Polling & Research · 2026-06-09–2026-06-14 · n=205 · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 22%, Haley Stevens (D) 20%, Mallory McMorrow (D) 9% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Mitchell Research & Communications · 2026-06-11–2026-06-13 · n=827 · Mike Rogers (R) 45%, Haley Stevens (D) 41% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Mitchell Research & Communications · 2026-06-11–2026-06-13 · n=827 · Mike Rogers (R) 47%, Mallory McMorrow (D) 41% · release
- Democratic primary · Mitchell Research & Communications · 2026-06-11–2026-06-13 · n=409 · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 42%, Haley Stevens (D) 33%, Mallory McMorrow (D) 6% · release
- Democratic primary · Lake Research Partners (partisan) · 2026-05-26–2026-05-28 · n=600 · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 34%, Haley Stevens (D) 31%, Mallory McMorrow (D) 19% · release
- Democratic primary · Tulchin Research (partisan) · 2026-05-19–2026-05-25 · n=500 · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 41%, Haley Stevens (D) 23%, Mallory McMorrow (D) 18% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · TIPP Insights (partisan) · 2026-05-20–2026-05-23 · n=1,163 · Mallory McMorrow (D) 45%, Mike Rogers (R) 42% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · TIPP Insights (partisan) · 2026-05-20–2026-05-23 · n=1,163 · Haley Stevens (D) 48%, Mike Rogers (R) 41% · release
- Democratic primary · TIPP Insights (partisan) · 2026-05-20–2026-05-23 · n=619 · Haley Stevens (D) 35%, Abdul El-Sayed (D) 31%, Mallory McMorrow (D) 13% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Mitchell Research · 2026-05-01–2026-05-07 · n=607 · Mike Rogers (R) 43%, Mallory McMorrow (D) 41% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Mitchell Research · 2026-05-01–2026-05-07 · n=607 · Mike Rogers (R) 42%, Haley Stevens (D) 39% · release
- Democratic primary · Mitchell Research · 2026-05-01–2026-05-07 · n=405 · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 27%, Haley Stevens (D) 18%, Mallory McMorrow (D) 17% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Glengariff Group · 2026-04-28–2026-05-01 · n=600 · Mike Rogers (R) 44%, Haley Stevens (D) 42% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Glengariff Group · 2026-04-28–2026-05-01 · n=600 · Mike Rogers (R) 43%, Mallory McMorrow (D) 41% · release
- Democratic primary · Glengariff Group · 2026-04-17–2026-04-19 · n=500 · Haley Stevens (D) 25%, Abdul El-Sayed (D) 23%, Mallory McMorrow (D) 16% · release
- Republican primary · Emerson College · 2026-04-11–2026-04-13 · n=452 · Mike Rogers (R) 55%, Bernadette Smith (R) 1% · release
- Democratic primary · Emerson College · 2026-04-11–2026-04-13 · n=519 · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 24%, Mallory McMorrow (D) 24%, Haley Stevens (D) 13% · release
In the news
- Republicans see warning signs in Senate races as affordability eclipses Trump’s message on Iran
- Democrat Abdul El-Sayed courts RFK Jr.'s MAHA voters with new health platform
- Many voters want generational change. Boomer priorities still rule.
- Soros nephew divulges how family's power helped bankroll El-Sayed's education during secretive fundraiser
- This Senate Democratic candidate is making a play for RFK Jr.’s MAHA supporters
- Former DSA member gives bleak warning about far-left ahead of midterms: ‘Off the deep end’
- Read full episode transcripts of "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan" from 2026
- Socialist jeweler who called US a 's---hole' teams up with top Dem Senate hopefuls
- Republicans dump cash into red states as they try to hold the line against Democrats in the midterms
- Far-left Senate hopeful Abdul El-Sayed asks if football is ‘ethical’ —despite being captain of HS team — in resurfaced podcast
Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news
Signals (experimental)
Attention 55 Vector D · Tilting
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
55OUT OF 100Moderate attention
Attention percentile89th
7-day momentum0 / 100
Source breadth50% of tracked
Vugol Me Vector (experimental)
Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: medium
Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean
AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored
Completeness4 of 7 inputs (national, pres, money, pulse) · missing: prior, incumbent, poll
Evidenceno verified poll · fundamentals only
Freshnessoldest input 2026-09-29 (yesterday)
Vector component signals · estimated margin D +7.3Presidential lean of the seat (2024 R +1.4, national swing D +10.5)D +9.1Fundraising velocity (FEC)D +7.1Attention shareD +2.4National environment: our generic-ballot average is D +7.9 (27 pollsters, as of 2026-09-29), against the 2024 national House vote of R +2.6. The seat's last result and presidential lean move by that swing; polls, incumbency and money do not. How.
Daily precision telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans
Sources
- Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 f1fee8f24d78 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Band: D · Tilting (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.