Who is ahead in the 2026 Michigan Senate race?

Name: U.S. Senate, Michigan, Vugol Vector & Vugol Attention
Creator: Vugol Me
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Abdul El-Sayed (D) won the MI Senate race. El-Sayed leads Rogers by 5.5 points in our average of verified polls. Verified poll average · 23 polls · newest poll ended 2026-11-01. Updated 2026-11-15.

Home / Races / Michigan / U.S. Senate

MI2026

U.S. Senate · Michigan · 2026

General election · 3 on the November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)

VecD 36 · TiltingTenD 85%Att3

TV graphic Vugol race poll

Result

Called

Abdul El-Sayed (D) won this race.

Abdul El-SayedDemocraticWinnershare not given2,520,883 votes
Mike RogersRepublicanshare not given2,181,108 votes
Lydia ChristensenLshare not given49,707 votes
Tim LongU.S. Taxpayersshare not given26,550 votes
Douglas P. MarshGshare not given12,564 votes
Walter P. KristyNatural Law Party (United States)share not given7,262 votes

Margin: 339,775 votes
Called: Called by Wikipedia editors, Nov 4, 1:33 AM ET (revision)
Last updated: Nov 14, 6:07 AM ET
Source: Wikipedia · official results page

Called it: hit Our locked call before polls closed was D; the winner is D. See every locked call

Unofficial until the state certifies the result.

Before the election

Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.

Race poll averageU.S. Senate · Michigan

Abdul El-Sayed

53%

Michael J Rogers

47%

Verified poll average · 23 polls · newest poll ended 2026-11-01

D · Tiltingfrom verified polls

Verified polls El-Sayed leads Rogers by 5.5 points in our average of verified polls.

23 verified polls averaged, newest ended 2026-11-01. Page updated 2026-11-15. Sources · What is validated

ExperimentalNews attention 3/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 6 days ago. How it works

On the Michigan ballot, Nov 3, 2026 U.S. Senate, 6 names on the official list. Election Day has passed; see the ballot as it was.Voting in Michigan? Check your registration, get a mail ballot, find your polling place.

On the November ballot (3)

From reported primary results, checked 2026-11-14. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.

Abdul El-SayedU.S. Senate - MI · FEC S6MI00418DemocraticOn the ballotFEC raised$53.8M Lydia Lynn ChristensenU.S. Senate - MI · FEC S6MI00442LibertarianOn the ballotFEC raised$7K Michael J RogersU.S. Senate - MI · FEC S4MI00595RepublicanOn the ballotFEC raised$23.0M

Ran in the primary (2)

Lost a primary or runoff for this seat, not on the November ballot.

Haley StevensU.S. Senate - MI · FEC S6MI00426DemocraticLost primaryFEC raised$13.3M Mallory McMorrowU.S. Senate - MI · FEC S6MI00392DemocraticLost primaryFEC raised$11.4M

Other filers (5)

Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.

Bernadette SmithU.S. Senate - MI · FEC S6MI00517RepublicanNot on the November ballotFEC raised$77K Frederick HeurtebiseU.S. Senate - MI · FEC S6MI00384RepublicanNot on the November ballotFEC raised$10K Genevieve ScottU.S. Senate - MI · FEC S6MI00434RepublicanNot on the November ballotFEC raised$83K Joseph Allen TateU.S. Senate - MI · FEC S6MI00459DemocraticNot on the November ballotFEC raised$244K Rachel Elizabeth HowardU.S. Senate - MI · FEC S6MI00467DemocraticNot on the November ballotFEC raised$11K

Ballot source: https://mvic.sos.state.mi.us/votehistory/Index?type=C&electionDate=11-3-2026

Polling average · 23 verified pollsVerified

El-Sayed +5.5

Abdul El-Sayed Democratic: 52.7%
Michael J Rogers Republican: 47.3%

Latest verified field polling

Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.

23 verified polls

Latest verified pollVerified

El-Sayed +6Within margin of error

Abdul El-Sayed Democratic: 51%
Michael J Rogers Republican: 45%

Other 3%

Cite / verify

Cite thishttps://vugol.me/races/US-MI

Sourcehttps://pollvault.substack.com/p/new-poll-vault-emerson-senate-and

Retrieved2026-11-15

Polling average Updates as polls arrive

23 verified inputs

52.7% Abdul El-Sayed47.3% Michael J Rogers

Abdul El-Sayed (D)Mike Rogers (R)● verified poll · ○ quarantined poll · ◎ live average

Vugol Tensor

How far this poll average can miss · a range, not a prediction

tensor-1.0.0

Centre D+5.5. Four times in five the result lands between D+12.2 and R+1.2; nine in ten between D+14.1 and R+3.1. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: 85%.

Same inputs as the Vugol Tensor page: the verified polling average above (23 verified polls), plus how far polls have missed since 1998. In the backtest the plain poll average picked the wrong winner in about 11% of polled, mostly competitive races (11.2%, 946 races, 1998 to 2024), and polls miss together. Not a forecast guarantee. How Tensor works →

Campaign money (FEC)

Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Through
Abdul El-Sayed Democratic	$53,830,872	$51,096,843	$2,734,029	2026-10-14
Bernadette Smith Republican	$77,255	$73,459	$3,796	2026-09-30
Frederick Heurtebise Republican	$10,059	$10,059	$0	2025-05-03
Genevieve Scott Republican	$83,079	$80,541	$2,539	2026-06-30
Haley Stevens Democratic	$13,304,162	$13,151,823	$152,338	2026-09-30
Joseph Allen Tate Democratic	$243,636	$243,636	$0	2025-09-30
Lydia Lynn Christensen Libertarian	$7,159	$5,035	$2,601	2026-10-14
Mallory McMorrow Democratic	$11,405,912	$10,992,326	$413,585	2026-09-30
Michael J Rogers Republican	$23,016,439	$19,369,637	$3,902,506	2026-10-22
Rachel Elizabeth Howard Democratic	$10,937	$6,171	$4,766	2025-09-30

Ad spending (FEC)

What each campaign reported paying for ads, and what outside groups (super PACs, PACs and parties) reported spending for and against each candidate. Federal Election Commission filings, public domain.

Candidate	Campaign's own ads	Outside groups for	Outside groups against
Abdul El-Sayed Democratic	$4.1M+ $509K mail · through 2026-07-15	$41.1M$28.3M ads · 61 groups	$153.6M$131.5M ads · 30 groups
Michael J Rogers Republican	$2.1M+ $395K mail · through 2026-07-15	$51.4M$32.1M ads · 26 groups	$54.1M$53.3M ads · 32 groups
Haley Stevens Democratic	$1.2M+ $231K mail · through 2026-07-15	$33.9M$30.9M ads · 10 groups	$1.1M$916K ads · 6 groups
Mallory McMorrow Democratic	$2.9M+ $1.2M mail · through 2026-07-15	$50K$50K ads · 1 group	none reported
Genevieve Scott Republican	$20K+ $4,316 mail · through 2026-06-30	none reported	none reported
Lydia Lynn Christensen Libertarian	$28through 2026-10-14	$10K$0 ads · 1 group	none reported

Biggest outside spenders

Abdul El-Sayed. For: WinSenate $12.6M, LCV Victory Fund $5.4M, CFFE PAC $3.6M. Against: SLF PAC $46.2M, NO GOING BACK PAC INC. $27.5M, UNITED DEMOCRACY PROJECT (UDP) $20.9M
Michael J Rogers. For: Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc. (AFP Action) DBA CVA Action and DBA LIBRE Action $15.2M, GLCF, INC. $10.9M, NO GOING BACK PAC INC. $8.2M. Against: WinSenate $34M, Lower Costs Now $5M, Defend The Vote $4.6M
Haley Stevens. For: A Stronger Michigan $17.2M, UNITED DEMOCRACY PROJECT (UDP) $10.5M, UNITE TO WIN $4M. Against: FIGHTING FOR MICHIGAN PAC $693K, AMERICAN PRIORITIES (AP) $306K, Progress Action Fund $65K
Mallory McMorrow. For: J Street Action Fund $50K
Lydia Lynn Christensen. For: PRINCIPLED PATRIOTS PAC $10K

Outside groups: 24- and 48-hour independent expenditure reports for the 2026 primary and general, through 2026-11-09, each expenditure counted once after amendments; "ads" is TV, radio, digital and other media, and the rest is mail, phones, canvassing and similar. Campaign's own ads: TV, radio, digital, other media and ad production in the campaign committee's itemized payments, as the campaign described them, from the reports the FEC has processed (latest through 2026-10-14); newer reports appear as the FEC processes them. These are amounts committees reported paying, not airtime tracked by ad-monitoring firms, so very recent buys and future reservations may not show yet. Parser fec-ad-spend-1.0.0.

Results

Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state’s official results.

general election · official results

Abdul El-Sayed won	2,520,883	-
Mike Rogers	2,181,108	-
Lydia Christensen	49,707	-
Tim Long	26,550	-
Douglas P. Marsh	12,564	-
Walter P. Kristy	7,262	-

Democratic primary · official results

Abdul El-Sayed won	744,952	48.5%
Haley Stevens	731,160	47.5%
Mallory McMorrow (withdrawn)	61,516	4.0%

Republican primary

Mike Rogers won	883,328	100.0%

Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-11-14 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0

Key dates

Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.

2026-08-04, Primary election: U.S. Senate
2026-11-03, General election: U.S. Senate

Source: FEC election dates (public domain).

Primary and hypothetical polls (40)

Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to that article revision and, where we know it, to the pollster's own site.

Hypothetical matchup · EPIC-MRA · 2026-07-24–2026-07-31 · n=600 · Haley Stevens (D) 44%,Mike Rogers (R) 42% · release
Democratic primary · Zenith Research (partisan) · 2026-07-26–2026-07-30 · n=536 · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 53%,Haley Stevens (D) 34%,Mallory McMorrow (D) 2% · release
Democratic primary · SoCal Strategies (partisan) · 2026-07-28–2026-07-30 · n=437 · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 56%,Haley Stevens (D) 39% · release
Hypothetical matchup · SoCal Strategies (partisan) · 2026-07-28–2026-07-30 · n=640 · Haley Stevens (D) 44%,Mike Rogers (R) 42% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Mitchell Research & Communications · 2026-07-28–2026-07-29 · n=672 · Mike Rogers (R) 46%,Haley Stevens (D) 43% · release
Democratic primary · Mitchell Research & Communications · 2026-07-28–2026-07-29 · n=406 · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 52%,Haley Stevens (D) 38%,Mallory McMorrow (D) 4% · release
Democratic primary · The Public Sentiment Institute · 2026-07-25–2026-07-29 · n=762 · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 48%,Haley Stevens (D) 40% · release
Democratic primary · Emerson College · 2026-07-26–2026-07-27 · n=700 · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 54%,Haley Stevens (D) 39%,Mallory McMorrow (D) 2% · pollster's site · release
Democratic primary · Tavern Research (partisan) · 2026-07-26–2026-07-27 · n=914 · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 46%,Haley Stevens (D) 36%,Mallory McMorrow (D) 4% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Glengariff Group · 2026-07-22–2026-07-24 · n=600 · Haley Stevens (D) 46%,Mike Rogers (R) 45% · release
Democratic primary · Data for Progress (partisan) · 2026-07-10–2026-07-14 · n=614 · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 54%,Haley Stevens (D) 41% · pollster's site · release
Democratic primary · Glengariff Group · 2026-07-08–2026-07-11 · n=500 · Haley Stevens (D) 48%,Abdul El-Sayed (D) 41% · release
Democratic primary · Tavern Research (partisan) · 2026-07-06–2026-07-08 · n=2,211 · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 41%,Haley Stevens (D) 38%,Mallory McMorrow (D) 5% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2026-06-29–2026-06-30 · n=947 · Haley Stevens (D) 45%,Mike Rogers (R) 44% · pollster's site · release
Hypothetical matchup · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2026-06-29–2026-06-30 · n=947 · Mike Rogers (R) 45%,Mallory McMorrow (D) 44% · pollster's site · release
Democratic primary · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2026-06-29–2026-06-30 · n=947 · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 41%,Haley Stevens (D) 36%,Mallory McMorrow (D) 8% · pollster's site · release
Democratic primary · Tulchin Research (partisan) · 2026-06-24–2026-06-28 · n=500 · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 46%,Haley Stevens (D) 27%,Mallory McMorrow (D) 17% · release
Democratic primary · Wedgewood Polls · 2026-06-25–2026-06-28 · n=353 · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 46%,Haley Stevens (D) 39%,Mallory McMorrow (D) 9% · release
Democratic primary · Peak Insights (partisan) · 2026-06-20–2026-06-24 · n=400 · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 39%,Haley Stevens (D) 28%,Mallory McMorrow (D) 18% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Data for Progress (partisan) · 2026-06-15–2026-06-22 · n=709 · Mike Rogers (R) 46%,Haley Stevens (D) 45% · pollster's site · release
Hypothetical matchup · GQR (partisan) · 2026-06-13–2026-06-18 · n=800 · Generic Democrat 50%,Mike Rogers (R) 42% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Zenith Research (partisan) · 2026-06-11–2026-06-14 · n=602 · Mallory McMorrow (D) 44%,Mike Rogers (R) 42% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Zenith Research (partisan) · 2026-06-11–2026-06-14 · n=602 · Haley Stevens (D) 43%,Mike Rogers (R) 42% · release
Democratic primary · Susquehanna Polling & Research · 2026-06-09–2026-06-14 · n=205 · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 22%,Haley Stevens (D) 20%,Mallory McMorrow (D) 9% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Mitchell Research & Communications · 2026-06-11–2026-06-13 · n=827 · Mike Rogers (R) 45%,Haley Stevens (D) 41% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Mitchell Research & Communications · 2026-06-11–2026-06-13 · n=827 · Mike Rogers (R) 47%,Mallory McMorrow (D) 41% · release
Democratic primary · Mitchell Research & Communications · 2026-06-11–2026-06-13 · n=409 · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 42%,Haley Stevens (D) 33%,Mallory McMorrow (D) 6% · release
Democratic primary · Lake Research Partners (partisan) · 2026-05-26–2026-05-28 · n=600 · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 34%,Haley Stevens (D) 31%,Mallory McMorrow (D) 19% · release
Democratic primary · Tulchin Research (partisan) · 2026-05-19–2026-05-25 · n=500 · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 41%,Haley Stevens (D) 23%,Mallory McMorrow (D) 18% · release
Hypothetical matchup · TIPP Insights (partisan) · 2026-05-20–2026-05-23 · n=1,163 · Mallory McMorrow (D) 45%,Mike Rogers (R) 42% · pollster's site · release
Hypothetical matchup · TIPP Insights (partisan) · 2026-05-20–2026-05-23 · n=1,163 · Haley Stevens (D) 48%,Mike Rogers (R) 41% · pollster's site · release
Democratic primary · TIPP Insights (partisan) · 2026-05-20–2026-05-23 · n=619 · Haley Stevens (D) 35%,Abdul El-Sayed (D) 31%,Mallory McMorrow (D) 13% · pollster's site · release
Hypothetical matchup · Mitchell Research · 2026-05-01–2026-05-07 · n=607 · Mike Rogers (R) 43%,Mallory McMorrow (D) 41% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Mitchell Research · 2026-05-01–2026-05-07 · n=607 · Mike Rogers (R) 42%,Haley Stevens (D) 39% · release
Democratic primary · Mitchell Research · 2026-05-01–2026-05-07 · n=405 · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 27%,Haley Stevens (D) 18%,Mallory McMorrow (D) 17% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Glengariff Group · 2026-04-28–2026-05-01 · n=600 · Mike Rogers (R) 44%,Haley Stevens (D) 42% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Glengariff Group · 2026-04-28–2026-05-01 · n=600 · Mike Rogers (R) 43%,Mallory McMorrow (D) 41% · release
Democratic primary · Glengariff Group · 2026-04-17–2026-04-19 · n=500 · Haley Stevens (D) 25%,Abdul El-Sayed (D) 23%,Mallory McMorrow (D) 16% · release
Republican primary · Emerson College · 2026-04-11–2026-04-13 · n=452 · Mike Rogers (R) 55%,Bernadette Smith (R) 1% · pollster's site · release
Democratic primary · Emerson College · 2026-04-11–2026-04-13 · n=519 · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 24%,Mallory McMorrow (D) 24%,Haley Stevens (D) 13% · pollster's site · release

In the news

Midterm Democratic blowout scrambles field of 2028 White House hopefulsNew York Post · Nov 14
Newly elected Senate Democrats in the spotlight: From the Politics DeskNBC News · Nov 13
Ocasio-Cortez: Stevens has 'been with the Republicans' since Congress returnedThe Hill · Nov 13
Anthony Santander breaks silence on Islamophobic posts in wake of Abdul El-Sayed’s midterms winNew York Post · Nov 13
Van Hollen will challenge Schumer for Senate majority leaderCBS News · Nov 12
Van Hollen announces bid for majority leader, but Schumer says he has the votesRoll Call · Nov 12
Sen Bernie Sanders supports Chris Van Hollen's bid to challenge Schumer for Senate Democratic leader postFox News · Nov 13
Sen. Chris Van Hollen says he will challenge Sen. Chuck Schumer for majority leaderNBC News · Nov 12
Trump says no Iran deal needed after conflict drove GOP’s midterm lossesRoll Call · Nov 12
The Concession Call to an Election Winner Is No Longer a GivenNew York Times · Nov 12

Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news

Lab

Vugol Vector & Vugol Attention

Vugol Attention 3 Vugol Vector D · Tilting

Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.

Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)

Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly

attention-1.0.0

3OUT OF 100Low attention

Vugol Attention percentile0th

7-day momentum9 / 100

Source breadth0% of tracked

Vugol Vector

Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: medium

vector-1.1.0

Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean

AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored

Completeness3 of 7 inputs (national, pres, money) · missing: prior, incumbent, pulse, poll

Evidenceno audit release · fundamentals only

Freshnessoldest input 2026-11-09 (6 days ago)

The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.

Desk data: daily telemetry

Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans

Sources

Roster, official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
Vugol Attention inputs, Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
Polls and results, individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
Models attention-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 0db467c678db · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).

Vugol Vector band: D · Tilting. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.

The four Vugol signals, side by side

They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.

Vugol Vector: Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
Vugol Tensor: How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
Vugol Attention: How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
Vugol Pulse: Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.