Millions of people vote before Election Day. States publish who has voted, by their registered party. Here is what that shows, what it does not, and how it compares with the last midterm.
Who has votedCounts come from each state’s own daily file, by the voter’s registered party.
Not how they votedBallots are secret. A registered Democrat or Republican can vote either way.
Not everyone yetPeople who vote on Election Day are not in these numbers, and states count differently.
Compared with 2022A midterm is compared with a midterm. Presidential years bring far more voters, and a 2024 early-vote file is not on the site.
Florida
814,687 ballots cast so far, as of 2026-10-19 (15 days before Election Day)
Who: The 2022 party mix is not on file for this state, so there is nothing to compare it with.
How Florida voted for president in 2024: Republican +13.1 points (source).
Last governor’s race (2022): Republican +19.4 points (source).
So what? The early vote tells us who is turning out early, by how they are registered. It does not tell us how they voted, how unaffiliated voters will split, or how many people will wait for Election Day. The outcome in Florida is still uncertain.
State file · retrieved 2026-10-19 · sha-256 ee6b8a611c77…
North Carolina
525,970 ballots cast so far, as of 2026-10-19 (15 days before Election Day)
How much so far: 24% of 2022’s whole early vote (2,198,550), with 2022’s day-by-day counts not on file.
Who: Compared with 2022’s early ballots, registered Democrats are 7.5 points higher than in 2022, and registered Republicans 11.5 points lower.
How North Carolina voted for president in 2024: Republican +3.2 points (source).
So what? The early vote tells us who is turning out early, by how they are registered. It does not tell us how they voted, how unaffiliated voters will split, or how many people will wait for Election Day. The outcome in North Carolina is still uncertain.
State file · retrieved 2026-10-19 · sha-256 f4921d4e3347…
Pennsylvania
276,438 ballots cast so far, as of 2026-10-13 (21 days before Election Day)
Who: The 2022 party mix is not on file for this state, so there is nothing to compare it with.
How Pennsylvania voted for president in 2024: Republican +1.7 points (source).
Last governor’s race (2022): Democratic +14.8 points (source).
So what? The early vote tells us who is turning out early, by how they are registered. It does not tell us how they voted, how unaffiliated voters will split, or how many people will wait for Election Day. The outcome in Pennsylvania is still uncertain.
State file · retrieved 2026-10-13 · sha-256 59f0ea4dd741…
What this can’t tell us
The result. Early voters are not a sample of all voters. In some years and states they lean one way and Election Day voters the other.
Unaffiliated voters. The “other” share is the largest unknown. It includes people who vote for both parties.
Registration is not loyalty. Some states register by party and some do not, and in every state some voters cross party lines.
For how far forecasts can miss, see Vugol Tensor. For the counts themselves, see the early-vote tracker. Early-vote counts never enter a polling average or a race rating (methodology).
