U.S. House — TX-02 · Texas · 2026
General election · 2 on the certified November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)
Model rating Leans Republican (Held) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.
No polls on file for this race. Model inputs: 4 of 7, updated today. Sources · What is validated
News attention 45/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated today. How it works
On the November ballot (2)
Certified by the state on 2026-08-28, checked 2026-09-30.
Not on the certified ballot (4)
Filed or ran for this seat, but not on the state’s certified list for November.
Official source: https://www.sos.texas.gov/elections/forms/2026-ballot-cert.pdf
Latest verified field polling
Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.
No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.
Polling average
No polls on file for this race yet. See latest polls across every race.
Campaign money (FEC)
Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Crenshaw | $2,735,888 | $3,180,271 | $24,925 | 2026-06-30 |
| Jameson Ellis | $6,340 | $6,388 | $0 | 2025-03-31 |
| Martin Etwop | $13,788 | $11,398 | $-2 | 2026-04-30 |
| Nicholas Lee Plumb | $9,245 | $9,176 | $69 | 2026-06-30 |
| Shaun Finnie | $2,729,677 | $1,260,476 | $1,469,201 | 2026-06-30 |
| Steve Toth | $824,450 | $671,515 | $152,935 | 2026-06-30 |
Results
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.
Democratic primary
| Shaun Finnie won | 48,700 | 100.0% |
Republican primary
| Steve Toth won | 36,830 | 55.8% |
| Dan Crenshaw (incumbent) | 26,859 | 40.7% |
| Martin Etwop | 1,216 | 1.8% |
| Nicholas Lee Plumb | 1,106 | 1.7% |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-29 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-03-03 — Primary election: U.S. House
- 2026-04-11 — Convention: U.S. House — LIB
- 2026-05-26 — Runoff: U.S. House
- 2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. House
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (1)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.
- Republican primary · Meeting Street Research (partisan) · 2025-10-21–2025-10-23 · n=400 · Dan Crenshaw (R) 47%, Steve Toth (R) 19%, Martin Etwop (R) 1% · release
In the news
Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news
Signals (experimental)
Attention 45 Vector R · Held
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
Vugol Me Vector (experimental)
Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: medium
Daily precision telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans
Sources
- Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 ce8f50ff84c1 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Band: R · Held (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.