U.S. Senate · Nebraska · 2026
General election · 5 on the certified November ballot · Incumbent running
Model rating Leans Republican (Tilting) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.
8 polls on file from pollsters we have not verified yet — shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 4 of 7, updated today. Sources · What is validated
News attention 61/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated today. How it works
On the November ballot (3)
Certified by the state on 2026-09-11, checked 2026-09-29.
Also on the certified ballot: Chuck Conboy (America First), Robin Richards (Nebraska Working People).
Not on the certified ballot (1)
Filed or ran for this seat, but not on the state’s certified list for November.
Official source: https://sos.nebraska.gov/sites/default/files/doc/elections/2026/Final_Statewide_General_Candidate_Filing_List_9.11.26.pdf
Latest verified field polling
Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.
No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.
Polling average
8 polls on file for this race, all from quarantined (U-tier) pollsters — visible below, not yet averaged.
Campaign money (FEC)
Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Ricketts | $11,233,507 | $4,809,506 | $6,910,970 | 2026-06-30 |
| Cindy Burbank | $39,712 | $18,946 | $20,766 | 2026-06-30 |
| Dan Osborn | $5,751,951 | $3,393,630 | $2,421,487 | 2026-06-30 |
| Mike Marvin | $27,750 | $27,750 | $0 | 2026-09-11 |
Results
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.
Democratic primary
| Cindy Burbank won | 110,210 | 89.5% |
| William Forbes | 12,863 | 10.5% |
Legal Marijuana Now Party primary
| Mike Marvin won | 829 | 66.4% |
| Earl Starkey | 420 | 33.6% |
Republican primary · official results
| Pete Ricketts (incumbent) won | 160,547 | 81.5% |
| Todd Knobel | 15,921 | 8.1% |
| Debb Axtel Schultz | 11,735 | 6.0% |
| Mac Stevens | 5,204 | 2.6% |
| Eric Mortimore | 3,667 | 1.9% |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-30 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-05-12 — Primary election: U.S. Senate
- 2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. Senate
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (3)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.
- Hypothetical matchup · Tavern Research (partisan) · 2026-05-08–2026-05-11 · n=1,165 · Pete Ricketts (R) 49%, Generic Democrat 42% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Tavern Research (partisan) · 2026-05-08–2026-05-11 · n=1,165 · Pete Ricketts (R) 48%, Cindy Burbank (D) 39% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Tavern Research (partisan) · 2026-05-08–2026-05-11 · n=1,165 · Pete Ricketts (R) 50%, William Forbes (D) 34% · release
In the news
- Democrats eye Nebraska as an opportunity to take a Senate seat away from Republicans
- The most vulnerable senators of 2026, about a month out from Election Day
- A Tough Ad Reminds Nebraska Voters About a Brutal Crime and a Pardon
- Nebraska independent U.S. Senate contender Dan Osborn, backed by Democrats, was heard saying on leaked tapes that Trump supporters have lives that “probably suck”
Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news
Signals (experimental)
Attention 61 Vector R · Tilting
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
Vugol Me Vector (experimental)
Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: medium
Daily precision telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans
Sources
- Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 dbfadf2c88e7 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Band: R · Tilting (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.