U.S. Senate · Illinois · 2026
General election · 3 on the November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)
Result
CalledJuliana Stratton (D) won this race.
- Juliana StrattonDemocraticWinnerno count in the source
Also on the ballot, no count in the source: Don Tracy (R), Whitfield Harrington Jr. (I).
- Called
- Called by Wikipedia editors, Nov 3, 8:05 PM ET (revision)
- Last updated
- Nov 14, 2:02 PM ET
- Source
- Wikipedia · official results page
Called it: hit Our locked call before polls closed was D; the winner is D. See every locked call
Unofficial until the state certifies the result.
Before the election
Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.
Model rating Leans Democratic (Held) on the Vugol Vector model, a snapshot of today, not a probability.
4 polls on file, none verified yet (pollster not verified or no public source), shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 4 of 7, updated yesterday. Page updated 2026-11-15. Sources · What is validated
ExperimentalNews attention 58/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated yesterday. How it works
On the November ballot (3)
From reported primary results, checked 2026-11-14. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.
Ran in the primary (12)
Lost a primary or runoff for this seat, not on the November ballot.
Other filers (5)
Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.
Ballot source: https://www.elections.il.gov/ElectionOperations/CandidateFilingSearch.aspx?ID=Z2J%2fvYpKX8w%3d
Latest verified field polling
Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.
No verified poll has been published for this race. The Vugol Vector call from our model is below, it is not a poll.
Polling average
4 polls on file for this race, none verified yet (pollster not verified or no public source), visible below, not averaged.
Campaign money (FEC)
Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Delgado | $59,061 | $55,779 | $3,282 | 2026-04-14 |
| Awisi Bustos | $42,029 | $46,454 | $0 | 2026-09-30 |
| Bryan Maxwell | $21,976 | $20,614 | $1,362 | 2026-09-30 |
| Casimer Chlebek | $202,000 | $201,973 | $27 | 2026-07-27 |
| Christopher Alexander Swann | $17,643 | $17,459 | $-409 | 2026-03-31 |
| Don Tracy | $4,914,363 | $4,431,346 | $483,017 | 2026-10-14 |
| Douglas Bennett | $13,000 | $16,154 | $1,548 | 2026-09-30 |
| Jeannie Evans | $1,308,510 | $1,305,174 | $3,336 | 2026-09-30 |
| John Goodman | $28,555 | $22,856 | $5,700 | 2025-09-30 |
| Jonathan Dean | $123,854 | $123,816 | $39 | 2026-09-30 |
| Juliana Stratton | $7,230,577 | $5,688,992 | $1,541,585 | 2026-10-14 |
| Kevin Ryan | $139,011 | $142,848 | $-3,838 | 2026-10-15 |
| Pamela Long | $24,715 | $22,830 | $1,885 | 2026-04-09 |
| R Cary Capparelli | $13,472 | $12,643 | $829 | 2026-04-14 |
| Robin Kelly | $3,509,919 | $3,505,725 | $4,194 | 2026-09-30 |
| S Krishnamoorthi | $31,560,943 | $31,528,045 | $32,898 | 2026-09-30 |
| Sean Amedee Brown | $10,217 | $9,679 | $538 | 2025-12-31 |
| Steve Botsford | $372,718 | $372,618 | $100 | 2026-06-30 |
| Steven J Schwartzberg | $6,021 | $33 | $5,988 | 2026-04-30 |
| Whitfield Harrington Jr. | $143,382 | $123,897 | $19,484 | 2026-10-14 |
Ad spending (FEC)
What each campaign reported paying for ads, and what outside groups (super PACs, PACs and parties) reported spending for and against each candidate. Federal Election Commission filings, public domain.
| Candidate | Campaign's own ads | Outside groups for | Outside groups against |
|---|---|---|---|
| S Krishnamoorthi | $21.4M | $412K | $3.3M |
| Juliana Stratton | $1.3M | $9.1M | $10.4M |
| Robin Kelly | $1.5M | $1.3M | |
| Jeannie Evans | $328K | ||
| Steve Botsford | $243K | ||
| Don Tracy | $180K |
Biggest outside spenders
- S Krishnamoorthi. For: Progressive Values Illinois $198K, The Impact Fund (FEC) $184K, Protect Progress $30K. Against: ILLINOIS FUTURE PAC $3.3M, THE PEOPLE'S LOBBY $3,599
- Juliana Stratton. For: ILLINOIS FUTURE PAC $8.8M, DLGA PAC $222K. Against: Fairshake $9.9M, Progressive Values Illinois $198K, The Impact Fund (FEC) $171K
- Robin Kelly. For: The Impact Fund (FEC) $795K, Protect Progress $285K, Progressive Values Illinois $198K
Outside groups: 24- and 48-hour independent expenditure reports for the 2026 primary and general, through 2026-03-16, each expenditure counted once after amendments; "ads" is TV, radio, digital and other media, and the rest is mail, phones, canvassing and similar. Campaign's own ads: TV, radio, digital, other media and ad production in the campaign committee's itemized payments, as the campaign described them, from the reports the FEC has processed (latest through 2026-09-30); newer reports appear as the FEC processes them. These are amounts committees reported paying, not airtime tracked by ad-monitoring firms, so very recent buys and future reservations may not show yet. Parser fec-ad-spend-1.0.0.
Results
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state’s official results.
Democratic primary · official results
| Juliana Stratton won | 507,689 | 40.4% |
| Raja Krishnamoorthi | 411,150 | 32.7% |
| Robin Kelly | 229,788 | 18.3% |
| Kevin Ryan | 61,914 | 4.9% |
| Bryan Maxwell | 10,070 | 0.8% |
| Sean Brown | 8,122 | 0.6% |
| Awisi Bustos | 8,020 | 0.6% |
| Christopher Swann | 7,896 | 0.6% |
| Jonathan Dean | 6,762 | 0.5% |
| Steve Botsford | 5,411 | 0.4% |
Republican primary
| Don Tracy won | 215,523 | 40.0% |
| Jeannie Evans | 122,840 | 22.8% |
| Casey Chlebek | 60,222 | 11.2% |
| R. Cary Capparelli | 56,907 | 10.6% |
| Pamela Denise Long | 53,810 | 10.0% |
| Jimmy Lee Tillman | 30,042 | 5.6% |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-11-14 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-03-17, Primary election: U.S. Senate
- 2026-11-03, General election: U.S. Senate
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (20)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to that article revision and, where we know it, to the pollster's own site.
- Democratic primary · Victory Research · 2026-03-13–2026-03-15 · n=800 · Raja Krishnamoorthi 32%,Juliana Stratton (D) 29%,Robin Kelly (D) 14% · release
- Democratic primary · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-03-09–2026-03-10 · n=700 · Juliana Stratton (D) 32%,Raja Krishnamoorthi 30%,Robin Kelly (D) 13% · release
- Democratic primary · Tulchin Research (partisan) · 2026-03-04–2026-03-08 · n=600 · Raja Krishnamoorthi 39%,Juliana Stratton (D) 28%,Robin Kelly (D) 12% · release
- Democratic primary · Change Research (partisan) · 2026-03-03–2026-03-05 · n=717 · Raja Krishnamoorthi 36%,Juliana Stratton (D) 26%,Robin Kelly (D) 14% · pollster's site · release
- Democratic primary · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-03-02–2026-03-03 · n=577 · Juliana Stratton (D) 33%,Raja Krishnamoorthi 30%,Robin Kelly (D) 11% · release
- Democratic primary · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-02-23–2026-02-24 · n=546 · Raja Krishnamoorthi 29%,Juliana Stratton (D) 27%,Robin Kelly (D) 13% · release
- Democratic primary · Tulchin Research (partisan) · 2026-02-14–2026-02-19 · n=600 · Raja Krishnamoorthi 42%,Juliana Stratton (D) 26%,Robin Kelly (D) 10% · release
- Democratic primary · GBAO (partisan) · 2026-01-25–2026-01-28 · n=800 · Raja Krishnamoorthi 43%,Juliana Stratton (D) 17%,Robin Kelly (D) 13% · release
- Democratic primary · Victory Research · 2026-01-21–2026-01-25 · n=806 · Raja Krishnamoorthi 32%,Juliana Stratton (D) 21%,Robin Kelly (D) 11% · release
- Democratic primary · GBAO (partisan) · 2026-01-08–2026-01-12 · n=900 · Raja Krishnamoorthi 41%,Juliana Stratton (D) 16%,Robin Kelly (D) 15% · release
- Democratic primary · Emerson College/WGN-TV · 2026-01-03–2026-01-05 · n=568 · Raja Krishnamoorthi 31%,Juliana Stratton (D) 10%,Robin Kelly (D) 8% · pollster's site · release
- Democratic primary · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2025-12-08–2025-12-09 · n=667 · Raja Krishnamoorthi 32%,Juliana Stratton (D) 20%,Robin Kelly (D) 9% · release
- Democratic primary · Change Research (partisan) · 2025-12-04–2025-12-08 · n=1,007 · Raja Krishnamoorthi 42%,Juliana Stratton (D) 14%,Robin Kelly (D) 7% · pollster's site · release
- Democratic primary · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2025-09-25–2025-09-26 · n=576 · Raja Krishnamoorthi 33%,Juliana Stratton (D) 18%,Robin Kelly (D) 8% · release
- Democratic primary · Change Research (partisan) · 2025-09-17–2025-09-19 · n=1,143 · Raja Krishnamoorthi 41%,Juliana Stratton (D) 17%,Robin Kelly (D) 8% · pollster's site · release
- Democratic primary · GBAO (partisan) · 2025-08-12–2025-08-17 · n=800 · Raja Krishnamoorthi 38%,Juliana Stratton (D) 18%,Robin Kelly (D) 12% · release
- Democratic primary · Z to A Research (partisan) · 2025-08-08–2025-08-10 · n=615 · Raja Krishnamoorthi 51%,Juliana Stratton (D) 28%,Robin Kelly (D) 13% · release
- Democratic primary · GBAO (partisan) · 2025-06-05–2025-06-10 · n=1,200 · Raja Krishnamoorthi 32%,Juliana Stratton (D) 19%,Robin Kelly (D) 14% · release
- Democratic primary · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2025-04-29–2025-04-30 · n=674 · Raja Krishnamoorthi 20%,Lauren Underwood 16%,Juliana Stratton (D) 13%,Robin Kelly (D) 8% · release
- Democratic primary · 314 Action (partisan) · 2025-03-24–2025-03-27 · n=773 · Lauren Underwood 33%,Raja Krishnamoorthi 30%,Juliana Stratton (D) 16%,Robin Kelly (D) 10% · release
In the news
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- Why Pope Leo is legally allowed to vote in US election, despite being leader of Vatican City
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- Fears about kids' online safety unite Democrats and Republicans
- Pope Leo requested an absentee ballot in Illinois to vote in the midterms
- Federal investigation of letters with suspicious substances widens
Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news
LabVugol Vector & Vugol Attention
Vugol Attention 58 Vugol Vector D · Held
Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
Vugol Vector
Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: medium
The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.
Vugol Tensor
How far this call can miss · a range, not a prediction · no verified poll here, so the range is wider and untested
Centre D+15.2. Four times in five the result lands between D+24.6 and D+5.8; nine in ten between D+27.2 and D+3.1. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: 98%.
Polls have missed by about four points in a typical race and they miss together. How Tensor works →
Desk data: daily telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans
Sources
- Roster, official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Vugol Attention inputs, Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results, individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models attention-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 04218c98207d · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Vugol Vector band: D · Held. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.
The four Vugol signals, side by side
They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.
- Vugol Vector
- Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
- Vugol Tensor
- How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
- Vugol Attention
- How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
- Vugol Pulse
- Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.