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IL2026

U.S. Senate · Illinois · 2026

General election · 3 on the November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)

Community poll

Model rating Leans Democratic (Anchored) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.

No polls on file for this race. Model inputs: 3 of 7, updated today. Sources · What is validated

News attention — — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. First run pending. How it works

On the November ballot (3)

From reported primary results, checked 2026-09-30. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.

Don TracyU.S. Senate — IL · FEC S6IL00615RepublicanOn the ballotFEC raised$2.5MJuliana StrattonU.S. Senate — IL · FEC S6IL00458DemocraticOn the ballotFEC raised$5.9MWhitfield Harrington Jr.U.S. Senate — IL · FEC S6IL00680IndependentOn the ballotFEC raised$101K

Ran in the primary (12)

Lost a primary or runoff for this seat — not on the November ballot.

Awisi BustosU.S. Senate — IL · FEC S6IL00565DemocraticLost primaryFEC raised$42KBryan MaxwellU.S. Senate — IL · FEC S6IL00649DemocraticLost primaryFEC raised$22KCasimer ChlebekU.S. Senate — IL · FEC S6IL00466RepublicanLost primaryFEC raised$202KChristopher Alexander SwannU.S. Senate — IL · FEC S6IL00409DemocraticLost primaryFEC raised$18KJeannie EvansU.S. Senate — IL · FEC S6IL00672RepublicanLost primaryFEC raised$1.3MJonathan DeanU.S. Senate — IL · FEC S6IL00623DemocraticLost primaryFEC raised$124KKevin RyanU.S. Senate — IL · FEC S6IL00581DemocraticLost primaryFEC raised$139KPamela LongU.S. Senate — IL · FEC S6IL00540RepublicanLost primaryFEC raised$25KR Cary CapparelliU.S. Senate — IL · FEC S6IL00490RepublicanLost primaryFEC raised$13KRobin KellyU.S. Senate — IL · FEC S6IL00474DemocraticLost primaryFEC raised$3.5MSean Amedee BrownU.S. Senate — IL · FEC S6IL00730DemocraticLost primaryFEC raised$10KSteve BotsfordU.S. Senate — IL · FEC S6IL00656DemocraticLost primaryFEC raised$373K

Other filers (5)

Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.

Adam DelgadoU.S. Senate — IL · FEC S6IL00607DemocraticNot on the November ballotFEC raised$59KDouglas BennettU.S. Senate — IL · FEC S6IL00391RepublicanNot on the November ballotFEC raised$13KJohn GoodmanU.S. Senate — IL · FEC S6IL00425RepublicanNot on the November ballotFEC raised$29KS KrishnamoorthiU.S. Senate — IL · FEC S6IL00482DemocraticNot on the November ballotFEC raised$31.6MSteven J SchwartzbergU.S. Senate — IL · FEC S6IL00698OtherNot on the November ballotFEC raised$6K

Ballot source: https://www.elections.il.gov/ElectionOperations/CandidateFilingSearch.aspx?ID=Z2J%2fvYpKX8w%3d

Latest verified field polling

Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.

none yet

No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.

Polling average

no polls yet

No polls on file for this race yet. See latest polls across every race.

Campaign money (FEC)

Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.

CandidateRaisedSpentCash on handThrough
Adam Delgado Democratic$59,061$55,779$3,2822026-04-14
Awisi Bustos Democratic$42,029$46,454$02026-06-30
Bryan Maxwell Democratic$21,976$20,614$1,3622026-06-30
Casimer Chlebek Republican$202,000$201,973$272026-07-27
Christopher Alexander Swann Democratic$17,643$17,459$-4092026-03-31
Don Tracy Republican$2,459,890$947,466$1,512,4242026-06-30
Douglas Bennett Republican$13,000$16,154$1,5482026-06-30
Jeannie Evans Republican$1,308,510$1,305,141$3,3692026-06-30
John Goodman Republican$28,555$22,856$5,7002025-09-30
Jonathan Dean Democratic$124,404$112,126$12,5642026-06-30
Juliana Stratton Democratic$5,906,599$4,798,641$1,107,9582026-06-30
Kevin Ryan Democratic$139,011$149,062$-10,0512026-06-30
Pamela Long Republican$24,715$22,830$1,8852026-04-09
R Cary Capparelli Republican$13,472$12,643$8292026-04-14
Robin Kelly Democratic$3,507,919$3,477,782$30,1372026-06-30
S Krishnamoorthi Democratic$31,558,603$31,484,015$74,5882026-06-30
Sean Amedee Brown Democratic$10,217$9,679$5382025-12-31
Steve Botsford Democratic$372,718$372,618$1002026-06-30
Steven J Schwartzberg Other$6,021$33$5,9882026-04-30
Whitfield Harrington Jr. Independent$100,702$96,951$3,7512026-06-30

Results

Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.

Democratic primary · official results

Juliana Stratton won507,68940.4%
Raja Krishnamoorthi411,15032.7%
Robin Kelly229,78818.3%
Kevin Ryan61,9144.9%
Bryan Maxwell10,0700.8%
Sean Brown8,1220.6%
Awisi Bustos8,0200.6%
Christopher Swann7,8960.6%
Jonathan Dean6,7620.5%
Steve Botsford5,4110.4%

Republican primary

Don Tracy won215,52340.0%
Jeannie Evans122,84022.8%
Casey Chlebek60,22211.2%
R. Cary Capparelli56,90710.6%
Pamela Denise Long53,81010.0%
Jimmy Lee Tillman30,0425.6%

Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-30 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0

Key dates

Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.

  • 2026-03-17 — Primary election: U.S. Senate
  • 2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. Senate

Source: FEC election dates (public domain).

Primary and hypothetical polls (20)

Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.

  • Democratic primary · Victory Research · 2026-03-13–2026-03-15 · n=800 · Raja Krishnamoorthi 32%, Juliana Stratton (D) 29%, Robin Kelly (D) 14% · release
  • Democratic primary · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-03-09–2026-03-10 · n=700 · Juliana Stratton (D) 32%, Raja Krishnamoorthi 30%, Robin Kelly (D) 13% · release
  • Democratic primary · Tulchin Research (partisan) · 2026-03-04–2026-03-08 · n=600 · Raja Krishnamoorthi 39%, Juliana Stratton (D) 28%, Robin Kelly (D) 12% · release
  • Democratic primary · Change Research (partisan) · 2026-03-03–2026-03-05 · n=717 · Raja Krishnamoorthi 36%, Juliana Stratton (D) 26%, Robin Kelly (D) 14% · release
  • Democratic primary · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-03-02–2026-03-03 · n=577 · Juliana Stratton (D) 33%, Raja Krishnamoorthi 30%, Robin Kelly (D) 11% · release
  • Democratic primary · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-02-23–2026-02-24 · n=546 · Raja Krishnamoorthi 29%, Juliana Stratton (D) 27%, Robin Kelly (D) 13% · release
  • Democratic primary · Tulchin Research (partisan) · 2026-02-14–2026-02-19 · n=600 · Raja Krishnamoorthi 42%, Juliana Stratton (D) 26%, Robin Kelly (D) 10% · release
  • Democratic primary · GBAO (partisan) · 2026-01-25–2026-01-28 · n=800 · Raja Krishnamoorthi 43%, Juliana Stratton (D) 17%, Robin Kelly (D) 13% · release
  • Democratic primary · Victory Research · 2026-01-21–2026-01-25 · n=806 · Raja Krishnamoorthi 32%, Juliana Stratton (D) 21%, Robin Kelly (D) 11% · release
  • Democratic primary · GBAO (partisan) · 2026-01-08–2026-01-12 · n=900 · Raja Krishnamoorthi 41%, Juliana Stratton (D) 16%, Robin Kelly (D) 15% · release
  • Democratic primary · Emerson College/WGN-TV · 2026-01-03–2026-01-05 · n=568 · Raja Krishnamoorthi 31%, Juliana Stratton (D) 10%, Robin Kelly (D) 8% · release
  • Democratic primary · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2025-12-08–2025-12-09 · n=667 · Raja Krishnamoorthi 32%, Juliana Stratton (D) 20%, Robin Kelly (D) 9% · release
  • Democratic primary · Change Research (partisan) · 2025-12-04–2025-12-08 · n=1,007 · Raja Krishnamoorthi 42%, Juliana Stratton (D) 14%, Robin Kelly (D) 7% · release
  • Democratic primary · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2025-09-25–2025-09-26 · n=576 · Raja Krishnamoorthi 33%, Juliana Stratton (D) 18%, Robin Kelly (D) 8% · release
  • Democratic primary · Change Research (partisan) · 2025-09-17–2025-09-19 · n=1,143 · Raja Krishnamoorthi 41%, Juliana Stratton (D) 17%, Robin Kelly (D) 8% · release
  • Democratic primary · GBAO (partisan) · 2025-08-12–2025-08-17 · n=800 · Raja Krishnamoorthi 38%, Juliana Stratton (D) 18%, Robin Kelly (D) 12% · release
  • Democratic primary · Z to A Research (partisan) · 2025-08-08–2025-08-10 · n=615 · Raja Krishnamoorthi 51%, Juliana Stratton (D) 28%, Robin Kelly (D) 13% · release
  • Democratic primary · GBAO (partisan) · 2025-06-05–2025-06-10 · n=1,200 · Raja Krishnamoorthi 32%, Juliana Stratton (D) 19%, Robin Kelly (D) 14% · release
  • Democratic primary · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2025-04-29–2025-04-30 · n=674 · Raja Krishnamoorthi 20%, Lauren Underwood 16%, Juliana Stratton (D) 13%, Robin Kelly (D) 8% · release
  • Democratic primary · 314 Action (partisan) · 2025-03-24–2025-03-27 · n=773 · Lauren Underwood 33%, Raja Krishnamoorthi 30%, Juliana Stratton (D) 16%, Robin Kelly (D) 10% · release

Signals (experimental)

Attention — Vector D · Anchored

Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)

Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly

pulse-1.0.0

Signals for this race are being collected. The first Attention score lands after the nightly run reaches it; nothing is estimated in the meantime.

Vugol Me Vector (experimental)

Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: medium

vector-1.1.0
Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean
AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored
Completeness3 of 7 inputs (national, pres, money) · missing: prior, incumbent, pulse, poll
Evidenceno verified poll · fundamentals only
Freshnessoldest input 2026-09-30 (today)
Vector component signals · estimated margin D +18.2Presidential lean of the seat (2024 D +11.1, national swing D +10.5)D +21.6Fundraising velocity (FEC)D +8.0National environment: our generic-ballot average is D +7.9 (27 pollsters, as of 2026-09-30), against the 2024 national House vote of R +2.6. The seat's last result and presidential lean move by that swing; polls, incumbency and money do not. How.

Daily precision telemetry

Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans

Sources

Band: D · Anchored (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.