SC2026
Governor · South Carolina · 2026
General election · 2 on the November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)
Model rating Leans Republican (Tilting) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.
2 polls on file from pollsters we have not verified yet — shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 4 of 7, updated today. Sources · What is validated
News attention 56/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated yesterday. How it works
On the November ballot (2)
From reported primary results, checked 2026-09-30. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.
Ballot source: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2026_South_Carolina_gubernatorial_election&oldid=1377323546
Latest verified field polling
Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.
No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.
Polling average
2 polls on file for this race, all from quarantined (U-tier) pollsters — visible below, not yet averaged.
Alan Wilson (R)Jermaine Johnson (D)● verified poll · ○ quarantined poll · ◎ live average
Results
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.
Republican primary runoff
| Alan Wilson won | 218,569 | 68.6% |
| Pamela Evette | 100,227 | 31.4% |
Democratic primary
| Jermaine Johnson won | 221,951 | 59.7% |
| Billy Webster | 110,303 | 29.6% |
| William Mullins McLeod Jr. | 39,739 | 10.7% |
Republican primary
| Pamela Evette advanced | 136,480 | 28.9% |
| Alan Wilson advanced | 123,643 | 26.2% |
| Ralph Norman | 80,790 | 17.1% |
| Rom Reddy | 66,992 | 14.1% |
| Nancy Mace | 57,380 | 12.1% |
| Josh Kimbrell (withdrawn) | 3,957 | 0.8% |
| Jacqueline DuBose (decertified) | 3,714 | 0.8% |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-30 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-04-11 — Convention: U.S. House — LIB
- 2026-06-09 — Primary election: U.S. Senate
- 2026-06-23 — Runoff: U.S. House
- 2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. House
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (40)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.
- Republican primary runoff · JMC Analytics (partisan) · 2026-06-13–2026-06-15 · n=500 · Alan Wilson (R) 63%, Pamela Evette 28% · release
- Republican primary runoff · Opinion Diagnostics (partisan) · 2026-06-10–2026-06-11 · n=625 · Alan Wilson (R) 46%, Pamela Evette 39% · release
- Republican primary runoff · National Public Affairs (partisan) · 2026-06-10–2026-06-11 · n=600 · Alan Wilson (R) 52%, Pamela Evette 36% · release
- Republican primary · Trafalgar Group (partisan) · 2026-06-05–2026-06-07 · n=1,200 · Pamela Evette 22%, Alan Wilson (R) 21%, Rom Reddy 18%, Ralph Norman 16%, Nancy Mace 14%, Josh Kimbrell 1% · release
- Republican primary · InsiderAdvantage (partisan) · 2026-06-05–2026-06-06 · n=800 · Pamela Evette 19%, Alan Wilson (R) 16%, Rom Reddy 13%, Nancy Mace 13%, Ralph Norman 12%, Josh Kimbrell 4% · release
- Republican primary · co/efficient (partisan) · 2026-06-02–2026-06-04 · n=879 · Pamela Evette 23%, Rom Reddy 17%, Alan Wilson (R) 16%, Ralph Norman 15%, Nancy Mace 11%, Josh Kimbrell 2% · release
- Republican primary · Starboard Communications · 2026-06-03–2026-06-04 · n=500 · Pamela Evette 19%, Alan Wilson (R) 19%, Rom Reddy 14%, Ralph Norman 13%, Nancy Mace 12% · release
- Republican primary · The Public Sentiment Institute · 2026-06-03–2026-06-04 · n=388 · Nancy Mace 30%, Pamela Evette 25%, Ralph Norman 15%, Rom Reddy 13%, Alan Wilson (R) 12% · release
- Republican primary runoff · Opinion Diagnostics (partisan) · 2026-06-01–2026-06-02 · n=675 · Alan Wilson (R) 48%, Pamela Evette 29% · release
- Republican primary · The Citadel · 2026-05-21–2026-05-31 · n=600 · Pamela Evette 17%, Nancy Mace 16%, Alan Wilson (R) 16%, Rom Reddy 14%, Ralph Norman 13%, Josh Kimbrell 1% · release
- Democratic primary · The Citadel · 2026-05-21–2026-05-31 · n=427 · Jermaine Johnson (D) 33%, Billy Webster 18%, Mullins McLeod 6% · release
- Republican primary · McLaughlin & Associates (partisan) · 2026-05-26–2026-05-28 · n=600 · Alan Wilson (R) 21%, Rom Reddy 20%, Ralph Norman 17%, Nancy Mace 14%, Pamela Evette 13%, Josh Kimbrell 2% · release
- Republican primary · Trafalgar Group (partisan) · 2026-05-21–2026-05-24 · n=1,125 · Pamela Evette 20%, Rom Reddy 19%, Alan Wilson (R) 19%, Ralph Norman 16%, Nancy Mace 15%, Josh Kimbrell 2% · release
- Republican primary · Cygnal (partisan) · 2026-05-20–2026-05-21 · n=600 · Alan Wilson (R) 19%, Rom Reddy 16%, Nancy Mace 14%, Ralph Norman 13%, Pamela Evette 12% · release
- Democratic primary · Conquest Communications Group/ South Carolina Policy Council · 2026-05-18–2026-05-21 · n=500 · Jermaine Johnson (D) 27%, Billy Webster 14%, Mullins McLeod 6% · release
- Republican primary · Conquest Communications Group/South Carolina Policy Council · 2026-05-18–2026-05-21 · n=500 · Pamela Evette 16%, Ralph Norman 15%, Alan Wilson (R) 14%, Nancy Mace 13%, Rom Reddy 10%, Josh Kimbrell 1% · release
- Republican primary · Cygnal (partisan) · 2026-05-07–2026-05-08 · n=600 · Pamela Evette 19%, Alan Wilson (R) 15%, Nancy Mace 14%, Ralph Norman 12%, Rom Reddy 9% · release
- Republican primary · Trafalgar Group (partisan) · 2026-05-02–2026-05-05 · n=1,089 · Pamela Evette 25%, Alan Wilson (R) 23%, Ralph Norman 20%, Nancy Mace 15%, Rom Reddy 10%, Josh Kimbrell 4% · release
- Republican primary · co/efficient (partisan) · 2026-04-29–2026-04-30 · n=813 · Pamela Evette 21%, Alan Wilson (R) 18%, Ralph Norman 13%, Nancy Mace 12%, Rom Reddy 11%, Josh Kimbrell 2% · release
- Republican primary · Starboard Communications · 2026-04-08–2026-04-14 · n=604 · Alan Wilson (R) 20%, Ralph Norman 14%, Nancy Mace 13%, Pamela Evette 12%, Josh Kimbrell 3% · release
- Republican primary · Cygnal (partisan) · 2026-04-13–2026-04-14 · n=600 · Nancy Mace 17%, Alan Wilson (R) 17%, Pamela Evette 15%, Ralph Norman 10%, Rom Reddy 6% · release
- Republican primary · co/efficient (partisan) · 2026-03-26–2026-03-27 · n=805 · Pamela Evette 19%, Nancy Mace 18%, Alan Wilson (R) 15%, Ralph Norman 13%, Rom Reddy 5%, Josh Kimbrell 1% · release
- Republican primary · co/efficient (partisan) · 2026-03-12–2026-03-13 · n=810 · Nancy Mace 22%, Pamela Evette 21%, Alan Wilson (R) 19%, Ralph Norman 8%, Josh Kimbrell 1% · release
- Republican primary · Stratus Intelligence (partisan) · 2026-03-09–2026-03-11 · n=600 · Nancy Mace 24%, Alan Wilson (R) 18%, Pamela Evette 15%, Ralph Norman 14% · release
- Republican primary · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2026-03-10–2026-03-11 · n=806 · Nancy Mace 19%, Alan Wilson (R) 18%, Pamela Evette 13%, Ralph Norman 9%, Josh Kimbrell 2% · release
- Republican primary · National Public Affairs (partisan) · 2026-02-02–2026-02-05 · n=800 · Alan Wilson (R) 23%, Nancy Mace 17%, Pamela Evette 16%, Ralph Norman 12%, Josh Kimbrell 2% · release
- Democratic primary · Targoz Market Research/ South Carolina Policy Council · 2026-01-24–2026-02-01 · n=348 · Jermaine Johnson (D) 25%, Mullins McLeod 8% · release
- Republican primary · Targoz Market Research/ South Carolina Policy Council · 2026-01-24–2026-02-01 · n=540 · Nancy Mace 18%, Pamela Evette 12%, Alan Wilson (R) 12%, Ralph Norman 11%, Josh Kimbrell 4% · release
- Republican primary · Trafalgar Group (partisan) · 2026-01-15–2026-01-16 · n=1,076 · Pamela Evette 22%, Alan Wilson (R) 20%, Nancy Mace 17%, Ralph Norman 10%, Josh Kimbrell 2% · release
- Republican primary · Stratus Intelligence (partisan) · 2026-01-07–2026-01-09 · n=700 · Nancy Mace 23%, Alan Wilson (R) 19%, Pamela Evette 14%, Ralph Norman 11% · release
- Republican primary · Cygnal (partisan) · 2026-01-05–2026-01-06 · n=402 · Alan Wilson (R) 19%, Nancy Mace 15%, Pamela Evette 12%, Ralph Norman 8% · release
- Republican primary · Wick · 2025-12-16–2025-12-19 · n=800 · Alan Wilson (R) 23%, Pamela Evette 17%, Nancy Mace 13%, Ralph Norman 13%, Josh Kimbrell 2% · release
- Republican primary · Wick · 2025-11-24–2025-11-26 · n=600 · Alan Wilson (R) 22%, Pamela Evette 16%, Ralph Norman 12%, Nancy Mace 11%, Josh Kimbrell 2% · release
- Republican primary · Winthrop University · 2025-10-02–2025-10-19 · n=1,331 · Nancy Mace 17%, Pamela Evette 16%, Ralph Norman 8%, Alan Wilson (R) 8%, Josh Kimbrell 3% · release
- Republican primary · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2025-10-01–2025-10-04 · n=600 · Pamela Evette 17%, Alan Wilson (R) 16%, Nancy Mace 16%, Ralph Norman 11%, Josh Kimbrell 5% · release
- Republican primary · Trafalgar Group (partisan) · 2025-09-30–2025-10-02 · n=1,094 · Pamela Evette 20%, Nancy Mace 16%, Alan Wilson (R) 12%, Ralph Norman 9%, Josh Kimbrell 1% · release
- Republican primary · co/efficient (partisan) · 2025-09-18–2025-09-19 · n=1,094 · Nancy Mace 19%, Pamela Evette 18%, Alan Wilson (R) 16%, Ralph Norman 10%, Josh Kimbrell 2% · release
- Republican primary · Meeting Street Insights (partisan) · 2025-08-11–2025-08-12 · n=600 · Nancy Mace 25%, Alan Wilson (R) 17%, Ralph Norman 10%, Pamela Evette 6%, Josh Kimbrell 3% · release
- Republican primary · Targoz Market Research/ South Carolina Policy Council · 2025-07-21–2025-07-25 · n=1,200 · Nancy Mace 16%, Alan Wilson (R) 15%, Pamela Evette 8%, Ralph Norman 6%, Josh Kimbrell 3% · release
- Republican primary · yes. every kid. (partisan) · 2025-07-18–2025-07-21 · n=406 · Alan Wilson (R) 20%, Nancy Mace 19%, Pamela Evette 9%, Ralph Norman 8%, Josh Kimbrell 3% · release
Signals (experimental)
Attention 56 Vector R · Tilting
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
56OUT OF 100Moderate attention
Attention percentile90th
7-day momentum4 / 100
Source breadth50% of tracked
Vugol Me Vector (experimental)
Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: high
Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean
AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored
Completeness4 of 7 inputs (national, prior, pres, pulse) · missing: incumbent, money, poll
Evidenceno verified poll · fundamentals only
Freshnessoldest input 2026-09-29 (yesterday)
Vector component signals · estimated margin R +8.0Presidential lean of the seat (2024 R +17.9, national swing D +8.4)R +9.5Last result for this seat (2022 R +17.4, national swing D +8.5)R +8.9Attention shareR +0.2National environment: our generic-ballot average is D +7.9 (27 pollsters, as of 2026-09-30), against the 2024 national House vote of R +2.6. The seat's last result and presidential lean move by that swing × 0.8 for this office; polls, incumbency and money do not. How.
Daily precision telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans
Sources
- Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 cacd9934c164 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Band: R · Tilting (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.