Who is ahead in the 2026 South Carolina Governor race?

Name: Governor, South Carolina, Vugol Vector & Vugol Attention
Creator: Vugol Me
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Alan Wilson (R) won the SC Governor race. Wilson leads Johnson by 7.4 points in our average of verified polls. Verified poll average · 1 poll · newest poll ended 2026-10-26. Updated 2026-11-14.

Home / Races / South Carolina / Governor

SC2026

Governor · South Carolina · 2026

General election · 2 on the November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)

VecR 31 · TiltingTenR 92%Att60

TV graphic Vugol race poll

Result

Called

Alan Wilson (R) won this race.

Alan WilsonRepublicanWinnerno count in the source

Also on the ballot, no count in the source: Jermaine Johnson (D).

Called: Called by Wikipedia editors, Nov 4, 1:31 AM ET (revision)
Last updated: Nov 4, 10:47 AM ET
Source: Wikipedia (race summary table) · official results page

Called it: hit Our locked call before polls closed was R; the winner is R. See every locked call

Unofficial until the state certifies the result.

Before the election

Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.

Race poll averageGovernor · South Carolina

Jermaine Johnson

46%

Alan Wilson

54%

Verified poll average · 1 poll · newest poll ended 2026-10-26

R · Heldfrom verified polls

Verified polls Wilson leads Johnson by 7.4 points in our average of verified polls.

1 verified poll averaged, newest ended 2026-10-26. Page updated 2026-11-14. Sources · What is validated

ExperimentalNews attention 60/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 9 days ago. How it works

On the South Carolina ballot, Nov 3, 2026 Governor and Lieutenant Governor, 4 names on the official list. Election Day has passed; see the ballot as it was.Voting in South Carolina? Check your registration, get a mail ballot, find your polling place.

On the November ballot (2)

From reported primary results, checked 2026-11-14. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.

Alan WilsonGovernor - SCRepublicanOn the ballotFEC raisednot on file Jermaine JohnsonGovernor - SCDemocraticOn the ballotFEC raisednot on file

Ballot source: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2026_South_Carolina_gubernatorial_election&oldid=1385633609

Polling average · 1 verified pollVerified

Wilson +7.4

Jermaine Johnson Democratic: 46.3%
Alan Wilson Republican: 53.7%

Latest verified field polling

Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.

1 verified poll

Latest verified pollVerified

Wilson +7Within margin of error

Jermaine Johnson Democratic: 44%
Alan Wilson Republican: 51%

Other 0% · Undecided 5%

Cite / verify

Cite thishttps://vugol.me/races/US-SC-GOV

Sourcehttps://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/10/28/polls/times-siena-sc-poll-toplines.html

Retrieved2026-11-14

Polling average Updates as polls arrive

1 verified input

53.7% Alan Wilson46.3% Jermaine Johnson

Alan Wilson (R)Jermaine Johnson (D)● verified poll · ○ quarantined poll · ◎ live average

Vugol Tensor

How far this poll average can miss · a range, not a prediction

tensor-1.0.0

Centre R+7.4. Four times in five the result lands between R+0.7 and R+14.1; nine in ten between D+1.2 and R+16.0. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: 8%.

Same inputs as the Vugol Tensor page: the verified polling average above (1 verified poll), plus how far polls have missed since 1998. In the backtest the plain poll average picked the wrong winner in about 11% of polled, mostly competitive races (11.2%, 946 races, 1998 to 2024), and polls miss together. Not a forecast guarantee. How Tensor works →

Results

Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state’s official results.

Republican primary runoff

Alan Wilson won	218,569	68.6%
Pamela Evette	100,227	31.4%

Democratic primary

Jermaine Johnson won	221,951	59.7%
Billy Webster	110,303	29.6%
William Mullins McLeod Jr.	39,739	10.7%

Republican primary

Pamela Evette advanced	136,480	28.9%
Alan Wilson advanced	123,643	26.2%
Ralph Norman	80,790	17.1%
Rom Reddy	66,992	14.1%
Nancy Mace	57,380	12.1%
Josh Kimbrell (withdrawn)	3,957	0.8%
Jacqueline DuBose (decertified)	3,714	0.8%

Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-11-14 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0

Key dates

Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.

2026-04-11, Convention: U.S. House, LIB
2026-06-09, Primary election: U.S. Senate
2026-06-23, Runoff: U.S. House
2026-11-03, General election: U.S. House

Source: FEC election dates (public domain).

Primary and hypothetical polls (40)

Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to that article revision and, where we know it, to the pollster's own site.

Republican primary runoff · JMC Analytics (partisan) · 2026-06-13–2026-06-15 · n=500 · Alan Wilson (R) 63%,Pamela Evette 28% · release
Republican primary runoff · Opinion Diagnostics (partisan) · 2026-06-10–2026-06-11 · n=625 · Alan Wilson (R) 46%,Pamela Evette 39% · release
Republican primary runoff · National Public Affairs (partisan) · 2026-06-10–2026-06-11 · n=600 · Alan Wilson (R) 52%,Pamela Evette 36% · release
Republican primary · Trafalgar Group (partisan) · 2026-06-05–2026-06-07 · n=1,200 · Pamela Evette 22%,Alan Wilson (R) 21%,Rom Reddy 18%,Ralph Norman 16%,Nancy Mace 14%,Josh Kimbrell 1% · pollster's site · release
Republican primary · InsiderAdvantage (partisan) · 2026-06-05–2026-06-06 · n=800 · Pamela Evette 19%,Alan Wilson (R) 16%,Rom Reddy 13%,Nancy Mace 13%,Ralph Norman 12%,Josh Kimbrell 4% · pollster's site · release
Republican primary · co/efficient (partisan) · 2026-06-02–2026-06-04 · n=879 · Pamela Evette 23%,Rom Reddy 17%,Alan Wilson (R) 16%,Ralph Norman 15%,Nancy Mace 11%,Josh Kimbrell 2% · pollster's site · release
Republican primary · Starboard Communications · 2026-06-03–2026-06-04 · n=500 · Pamela Evette 19%,Alan Wilson (R) 19%,Rom Reddy 14%,Ralph Norman 13%,Nancy Mace 12% · release
Republican primary · The Public Sentiment Institute · 2026-06-03–2026-06-04 · n=388 · Nancy Mace 30%,Pamela Evette 25%,Ralph Norman 15%,Rom Reddy 13%,Alan Wilson (R) 12% · release
Republican primary runoff · Opinion Diagnostics (partisan) · 2026-06-01–2026-06-02 · n=675 · Alan Wilson (R) 48%,Pamela Evette 29% · release
Republican primary · The Citadel · 2026-05-21–2026-05-31 · n=600 · Pamela Evette 17%,Nancy Mace 16%,Alan Wilson (R) 16%,Rom Reddy 14%,Ralph Norman 13%,Josh Kimbrell 1% · release
Democratic primary · The Citadel · 2026-05-21–2026-05-31 · n=427 · Jermaine Johnson (D) 33%,Billy Webster 18%,Mullins McLeod 6% · release
Republican primary · McLaughlin & Associates (partisan) · 2026-05-26–2026-05-28 · n=600 · Alan Wilson (R) 21%,Rom Reddy 20%,Ralph Norman 17%,Nancy Mace 14%,Pamela Evette 13%,Josh Kimbrell 2% · pollster's site · release
Republican primary · Trafalgar Group (partisan) · 2026-05-21–2026-05-24 · n=1,125 · Pamela Evette 20%,Rom Reddy 19%,Alan Wilson (R) 19%,Ralph Norman 16%,Nancy Mace 15%,Josh Kimbrell 2% · pollster's site · release
Republican primary · Cygnal (partisan) · 2026-05-20–2026-05-21 · n=600 · Alan Wilson (R) 19%,Rom Reddy 16%,Nancy Mace 14%,Ralph Norman 13%,Pamela Evette 12% · pollster's site · release
Democratic primary · Conquest Communications Group/ South Carolina Policy Council · 2026-05-18–2026-05-21 · n=500 · Jermaine Johnson (D) 27%,Billy Webster 14%,Mullins McLeod 6% · release
Republican primary · Conquest Communications Group/South Carolina Policy Council · 2026-05-18–2026-05-21 · n=500 · Pamela Evette 16%,Ralph Norman 15%,Alan Wilson (R) 14%,Nancy Mace 13%,Rom Reddy 10%,Josh Kimbrell 1% · release
Republican primary · Cygnal (partisan) · 2026-05-07–2026-05-08 · n=600 · Pamela Evette 19%,Alan Wilson (R) 15%,Nancy Mace 14%,Ralph Norman 12%,Rom Reddy 9% · pollster's site · release
Republican primary · Trafalgar Group (partisan) · 2026-05-02–2026-05-05 · n=1,089 · Pamela Evette 25%,Alan Wilson (R) 23%,Ralph Norman 20%,Nancy Mace 15%,Rom Reddy 10%,Josh Kimbrell 4% · pollster's site · release
Republican primary · co/efficient (partisan) · 2026-04-29–2026-04-30 · n=813 · Pamela Evette 21%,Alan Wilson (R) 18%,Ralph Norman 13%,Nancy Mace 12%,Rom Reddy 11%,Josh Kimbrell 2% · pollster's site · release
Republican primary · Starboard Communications · 2026-04-08–2026-04-14 · n=604 · Alan Wilson (R) 20%,Ralph Norman 14%,Nancy Mace 13%,Pamela Evette 12%,Josh Kimbrell 3% · release
Republican primary · Cygnal (partisan) · 2026-04-13–2026-04-14 · n=600 · Nancy Mace 17%,Alan Wilson (R) 17%,Pamela Evette 15%,Ralph Norman 10%,Rom Reddy 6% · pollster's site · release
Republican primary · co/efficient (partisan) · 2026-03-26–2026-03-27 · n=805 · Pamela Evette 19%,Nancy Mace 18%,Alan Wilson (R) 15%,Ralph Norman 13%,Rom Reddy 5%,Josh Kimbrell 1% · pollster's site · release
Republican primary · co/efficient (partisan) · 2026-03-12–2026-03-13 · n=810 · Nancy Mace 22%,Pamela Evette 21%,Alan Wilson (R) 19%,Ralph Norman 8%,Josh Kimbrell 1% · pollster's site · release
Republican primary · Stratus Intelligence (partisan) · 2026-03-09–2026-03-11 · n=600 · Nancy Mace 24%,Alan Wilson (R) 18%,Pamela Evette 15%,Ralph Norman 14% · release
Republican primary · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2026-03-10–2026-03-11 · n=806 · Nancy Mace 19%,Alan Wilson (R) 18%,Pamela Evette 13%,Ralph Norman 9%,Josh Kimbrell 2% · pollster's site · release
Republican primary · National Public Affairs (partisan) · 2026-02-02–2026-02-05 · n=800 · Alan Wilson (R) 23%,Nancy Mace 17%,Pamela Evette 16%,Ralph Norman 12%,Josh Kimbrell 2% · release
Democratic primary · Targoz Market Research/ South Carolina Policy Council · 2026-01-24–2026-02-01 · n=348 · Jermaine Johnson (D) 25%,Mullins McLeod 8% · release
Republican primary · Targoz Market Research/ South Carolina Policy Council · 2026-01-24–2026-02-01 · n=540 · Nancy Mace 18%,Pamela Evette 12%,Alan Wilson (R) 12%,Ralph Norman 11%,Josh Kimbrell 4% · release
Republican primary · Trafalgar Group (partisan) · 2026-01-15–2026-01-16 · n=1,076 · Pamela Evette 22%,Alan Wilson (R) 20%,Nancy Mace 17%,Ralph Norman 10%,Josh Kimbrell 2% · pollster's site · release
Republican primary · Stratus Intelligence (partisan) · 2026-01-07–2026-01-09 · n=700 · Nancy Mace 23%,Alan Wilson (R) 19%,Pamela Evette 14%,Ralph Norman 11% · release
Republican primary · Cygnal (partisan) · 2026-01-05–2026-01-06 · n=402 · Alan Wilson (R) 19%,Nancy Mace 15%,Pamela Evette 12%,Ralph Norman 8% · pollster's site · release
Republican primary · Wick · 2025-12-16–2025-12-19 · n=800 · Alan Wilson (R) 23%,Pamela Evette 17%,Nancy Mace 13%,Ralph Norman 13%,Josh Kimbrell 2% · release
Republican primary · Wick · 2025-11-24–2025-11-26 · n=600 · Alan Wilson (R) 22%,Pamela Evette 16%,Ralph Norman 12%,Nancy Mace 11%,Josh Kimbrell 2% · release
Republican primary · Winthrop University · 2025-10-02–2025-10-19 · n=1,331 · Nancy Mace 17%,Pamela Evette 16%,Ralph Norman 8%,Alan Wilson (R) 8%,Josh Kimbrell 3% · release
Republican primary · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2025-10-01–2025-10-04 · n=600 · Pamela Evette 17%,Alan Wilson (R) 16%,Nancy Mace 16%,Ralph Norman 11%,Josh Kimbrell 5% · pollster's site · release
Republican primary · Trafalgar Group (partisan) · 2025-09-30–2025-10-02 · n=1,094 · Pamela Evette 20%,Nancy Mace 16%,Alan Wilson (R) 12%,Ralph Norman 9%,Josh Kimbrell 1% · pollster's site · release
Republican primary · co/efficient (partisan) · 2025-09-18–2025-09-19 · n=1,094 · Nancy Mace 19%,Pamela Evette 18%,Alan Wilson (R) 16%,Ralph Norman 10%,Josh Kimbrell 2% · pollster's site · release
Republican primary · Meeting Street Insights (partisan) · 2025-08-11–2025-08-12 · n=600 · Nancy Mace 25%,Alan Wilson (R) 17%,Ralph Norman 10%,Pamela Evette 6%,Josh Kimbrell 3% · release
Republican primary · Targoz Market Research/ South Carolina Policy Council · 2025-07-21–2025-07-25 · n=1,200 · Nancy Mace 16%,Alan Wilson (R) 15%,Pamela Evette 8%,Ralph Norman 6%,Josh Kimbrell 3% · release
Republican primary · yes. every kid. (partisan) · 2025-07-18–2025-07-21 · n=406 · Alan Wilson (R) 20%,Nancy Mace 19%,Pamela Evette 9%,Ralph Norman 8%,Josh Kimbrell 3% · release

In the news

Republican AGs stand ready as 'last line of defense' against leftist policies after dismal midterms for partyFox News · Nov 5
Tuesday’s elections bring historic first for Black governorsNBC News · Nov 3
Wes Moore – potential 2028 White House hopeful – won’t commit to serving full term if re-elected Maryland governorNew York Post · Oct 6

Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news

Lab

Vugol Vector & Vugol Attention

Vugol Attention 60 Vugol Vector R · Tilting

Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.

Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)

Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly

attention-1.0.0

60OUT OF 100Moderate attention

Vugol Attention percentile97th

7-day momentum5 / 100

Source breadth50% of tracked

Vugol Vector

Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: high

vector-1.1.0

Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean

AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored

Completeness4 of 7 inputs (national, prior, pres, pulse) · missing: incumbent, money, poll

Evidenceno audit release · fundamentals only

Freshnessoldest input 2026-11-05 (9 days ago)

The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.

Desk data: daily telemetry

Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans

Sources

Roster, official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
Vugol Attention inputs, Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
Polls and results, individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
Models attention-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 657202a2b480 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).

Vugol Vector band: R · Tilting. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.

The four Vugol signals, side by side

They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.

Vugol Vector: Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
Vugol Tensor: How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
Vugol Attention: How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
Vugol Pulse: Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.