Scenario deskHypothetical. Not a forecast.

Israel votes. Then what?

A gated model of how an Israeli election result could, or could not, reach a US Senate race. Each gate must open before the next one counts. Every rate is your assumption; the baselines are the site’s verified-poll averages.

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Gate 0: The Israeli result

Netanyahu loses his majorityFavors US candidates who criticized him.Netanyahu keeps his majorityFavors US candidates who backed him.No clear result by Nov. 3Coalition talks can run for weeks, so this is a real possibility.

The gates

A gate opens only when its signal is seen. Turn one off to watch everything after it shut.

Illustrative strength:

Gate 0: TriggerOPEN
Reaches 100% of remaining voters.
Gate 1: AttentionOPEN
Reaches 25% of remaining voters.
Signal seenSignal to look for: news mentions of the candidate and Israel after the result.
Gate 2: Position validatedOPEN
Reaches 10% of remaining voters.
Signal seenSignal to look for: commentary or statements saying the candidate’s stance held up.
Gate 3: New thinking, image shiftOPEN
Reaches 1.8% of remaining voters.
Signal seenSignal to look for: the candidate’s favorability moving in polls.
Gate 4: Vote effectOPEN
Reaches 0.9% of remaining voters.
Signal seenSignal to look for: race polls moving against their earlier trend.

Your assumptions

Reach25%Share of remaining voters who notice coverage tying the result to the candidate.Validated40%Of those, the share who read the candidate’s stance as proven right.Rethink10%Of those, the share who actually move toward the candidate.Negatives fade3.0%Share of attentive voters whose negative view of the candidate softens.Ballots not yet cast50%Share of the vote still to come. Check early vote for your state.Movers from the opponent50%Share of movers who switch from the opponent (they swing the margin twice); the rest were undecided.

What it would take, race by race

Voters moved in this scenario: 0.9% of all voters, a margin change of 1.31 points for the candidate it helps.

Michigan Senate

Abdul El-Sayed (D) vs. Mike Rogers (R)

Baseline (verified polls): D +2.8 race page

Who this scenario helps

Before: D +2.8
After this scenario: D +4.1
Break-even: Already ahead
Voters who must move: n/a

New Hampshire Senate

Chris Pappas (D) vs. the Republican nominee

Baseline (verified polls): D +7.3 race page

Who this scenario helps

Before: D +7.3
After this scenario: D +8.6
Break-even: Already ahead
Voters who must move: n/a