Who is ahead in the 2026 Maine Senate race?

Name: U.S. Senate, Maine, Vugol Vector & Vugol Attention
Creator: Vugol Me
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Troy Jackson (D) won the ME Senate race with 53.1% of the vote. Jackson leads Collins by 4.3 points in our average of verified polls. Verified poll average · 17 polls · newest poll ended 2026-11-02. Updated 2026-11-15.

Home / Races / Maine / U.S. Senate

ME2026

U.S. Senate · Maine · 2026

General election · 2 on the November ballot · Incumbent running

VecD 35 · TiltingTenD 79%Att32

TV graphic Vugol race poll

Result

CalledFlip: R to D

Troy Jackson (D) won this race with 53.1% of the vote, 6.2 points ahead, defeating incumbent Susan Collins.

Troy JacksonDemocraticWinner53.1%376,955 votes
Susan CollinsRepublicanIncumbent46.9%332,918 votes

Margin: 44,037 votes (6.2 points)
Called: Called by Wikipedia editors, Nov 4, 12:51 AM ET (revision)
Seat: Changed party: held by Susan Collins (R)
Last updated: Nov 14, 6:05 AM ET
Source: Wikipedia · official results page

Called it: hit Our locked call before polls closed was D; the winner is D. See every locked call

Unofficial until the state certifies the result.

Before the election

Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.

Race poll averageU.S. Senate · Maine

Troy Dale Jackson

52%

Susan M. Collins

RIncumbent

48%

Verified poll average · 17 polls · newest poll ended 2026-11-02

D · Tiltingfrom verified polls

Verified polls Jackson leads Collins by 4.3 points in our average of verified polls.

17 verified polls averaged, newest ended 2026-11-02. Page updated 2026-11-15. Sources · What is validated

ExperimentalNews attention 32/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated yesterday. How it works

On the Maine ballot, Nov 3, 2026 United States Senator, 2 names on the official list. Election Day has passed; see the ballot as it was.Voting in Maine? Check your registration, get a mail ballot, find your polling place.

On the November ballot (2)

From reported primary results, checked 2026-11-14. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.

Susan M. CollinsU.S. Senate - ME · FEC S6ME00159Republican IncumbentOn the ballotFEC raised$25.2M Troy Dale JacksonU.S. Senate - ME · FEC S6ME00464DemocraticOn the ballotFEC raised$26.9M

Ran in the primary (3)

Lost a primary or runoff for this seat, not on the November ballot.

Andrea LaflammeU.S. Senate - ME · FEC S6ME00340DemocraticLost primaryFEC raised$17K David CostelloU.S. Senate - ME · FEC S4ME00113DemocraticLost primaryFEC raised$154K Janet Trafton MillsU.S. Senate - ME · FEC S6ME00407DemocraticLost primaryFEC raised$6.1M

Other filers (12)

Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.

Ballot source: https://apnews.com/projects/elections-2026/maine-primary-results-us-senate/

Polling average · 17 verified pollsVerified

Jackson +4.3

Troy Dale Jackson Democratic: 52.1%
Susan M. Collins Republican: Incumbent47.9%

Latest verified field polling

Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.

17 verified polls

Latest verified pollVerified

Jackson +3Within margin of error

Troy Dale Jackson Democratic: 49%
Susan M. Collins Republican: 46%

Undecided 5%

Cite / verify

Cite thishttps://vugol.me/races/US-ME

Sourcehttps://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2026/election_2026_maine_senate

Retrieved2026-11-15

Polling average Updates as polls arrive

17 verified inputs

52.1% Troy Dale Jackson47.9% Susan M. Collins

Troy Jackson (D)Susan Collins (R)● verified poll · ○ quarantined poll · ◎ live average

Vugol Tensor

How far this poll average can miss · a range, not a prediction

tensor-1.0.0

Centre D+4.3. Four times in five the result lands between D+11.0 and R+2.4; nine in ten between D+12.9 and R+4.3. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: 79%.

Same inputs as the Vugol Tensor page: the verified polling average above (17 verified polls), plus how far polls have missed since 1998. In the backtest the plain poll average picked the wrong winner in about 11% of polled, mostly competitive races (11.2%, 946 races, 1998 to 2024), and polls miss together. Not a forecast guarantee. How Tensor works →

Campaign money (FEC)

Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Through
Susan M. Collins Republican	$25,225,468	$23,830,778	$2,689,883	2026-10-14
Andrea Laflamme Democratic	$16,922	$12,387	$4,535	2026-09-30
Carmem Vincent Calabrese Republican	$17,760	$21,260	$-3,500	2025-09-30
Carmen Vincent Calabrese Republican	$17,760	$21,260	$-3,500	2025-09-30
Daira Rodriguez Democratic	$242,582	$242,582	$0	2025-12-31
Dan Kleban Democratic	$535,804	$520,644	$15,160	2026-09-30
David Alan Evans Independent	$6,437	$6,437	$0	2025-12-31
David Costello Democratic	$154,377	$154,377	$0	2026-08-26
Janet Trafton Mills Democratic	$6,115,222	$6,041,024	$74,198	2026-09-30
Jordan Wood Democratic	$6,391,430	$6,372,205	$19,225	2026-09-30
Nirav Shah Democratic	$280,757	$280,757	$0	2026-09-30
Paige Loud Democratic	$61,919	$58,928	$2,991	2026-09-30
Phillip Rench Independent	$55,500	$47,452	$8,048	2025-12-31
Saundra Pelletier Democratic	$426,560	$426,560	$0	2026-09-30
Shenna Bellows Democratic	$381,371	$381,235	$136	2026-08-31
Troy Dale Jackson Democratic	$26,872,874	$25,276,003	$1,596,871	2026-10-14
Tucker Favreau Democratic	$13,599	$13,592	$7	2026-07-12

Ad spending (FEC)

What each campaign reported paying for ads, and what outside groups (super PACs, PACs and parties) reported spending for and against each candidate. Federal Election Commission filings, public domain.

Candidate	Campaign's own ads	Outside groups for	Outside groups against
Troy Dale Jackson Democratic	no processed FEC reports yet	$13.8M$8.8M ads · 22 groups	$74M$68.4M ads · 10 groups
Susan M. Collins Republican	$4.3M+ $822K mail · through 2026-06-30	$7M$3.3M ads · 19 groups	$38.5M$36.7M ads · 24 groups
Janet Trafton Mills Democratic	$3M+ $362K mail · through 2026-06-30	none reported	none reported
Jordan Wood Democratic	$796K+ $255K mail · through 2026-06-30	none reported	none reported
Dan Kleban Democratic	$60Kthrough 2026-06-30	none reported	none reported
Daira Rodriguez Democratic	$23Kthrough 2025-12-09	none reported	none reported

Biggest outside spenders

Troy Dale Jackson. For: WinSenate $5.4M, CFFE PAC $5M, Government That Works PAC $1.6M. Against: SLF PAC $38M, PINE TREE RESULTS PAC $20.3M, THE MAINE STANDARD $9.9M
Susan M. Collins. For: STRONGER MAINE $2.4M, SLF PAC $1.4M, Lead Maine Committee, Inc. $1.4M. Against: WinSenate $32.7M, Planned Parenthood Votes $1.3M, End Citizens United Action Fund $1M

Outside groups: 24- and 48-hour independent expenditure reports for the 2026 primary and general, through 2026-11-03, each expenditure counted once after amendments; "ads" is TV, radio, digital and other media, and the rest is mail, phones, canvassing and similar. Campaign's own ads: TV, radio, digital, other media and ad production in the campaign committee's itemized payments, as the campaign described them, from the reports the FEC has processed (latest through 2026-06-30); newer reports appear as the FEC processes them. These are amounts committees reported paying, not airtime tracked by ad-monitoring firms, so very recent buys and future reservations may not show yet. Parser fec-ad-spend-1.0.0.

Results

Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state’s official results.

general election

Troy Jackson won	376,955	53.1%
Susan Collins (incumbent)	332,918	46.9%

Democratic primary · official results

Graham Platner won	156,084	72.1%
Janet Mills (withdrawn)	41,644	19.3%
David Costello	17,560	8.1%
Andrea LaFlamme (write-in)	1,114	0.5%

Republican primary

Susan Collins (incumbent) won	126,398	100.0%

Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-11-14 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0

Key dates

Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.

2026-06-09, Primary election: U.S. Senate
2026-07-25, Special convention: U.S. Senate, DEM (To replace Graham Platner on General Election Ballot)
2026-11-03, General election: U.S. Senate

Source: FEC election dates (public domain).

Primary and hypothetical polls (40)

Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to that article revision and, where we know it, to the pollster's own site.

Hypothetical matchup · Z to A Research (partisan) · 2026-07-07–2026-07-08 · n=988 · Nirav Shah (D) 47%,Susan Collins (R) 46% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Z to A Research (partisan) · 2026-07-07–2026-07-08 · n=988 · Susan Collins (R) 47%,Shenna Bellows (D) 47% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-07-07–2026-07-07 · n=785 · Susan Collins (R) 47%,Graham Platner (D) 42% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-07-07–2026-07-07 · n=785 · Susan Collins (R) 47%,Shenna Bellows (D) 47% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-07-07–2026-07-07 · n=785 · Susan Collins (R) 47%,Jordan Wood (D) 38% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-07-07–2026-07-07 · n=785 · Susan Collins (R) 48%,Janet Mills (D) 37% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-07-07–2026-07-07 · n=785 · Susan Collins (R) 45%,Nirav Shah (D) 45% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Wedgewood Polls · 2026-07-04–2026-07-06 · n=405 · Susan Collins (R) 50%,Graham Platner (D) 46% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Tavern Research (partisan) · 2026-07-03–2026-07-06 · n=1,074 · Graham Platner (D) 52%,Susan Collins (R) 48% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Wedgewood Polls · 2026-07-04–2026-07-06 · n=405 · Janet Mills (D) 47%,Susan Collins (R) 47% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Beacon Research (D)/Shaw & Co. Research (partisan) · 2026-06-23–2026-06-27 · n=1,003 · Susan Collins (R) 50%,Graham Platner (D) 47% · pollster's site · release
Hypothetical matchup · The New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena University · 2026-06-19–2026-06-26 · n=608 · Graham Platner (D) 49%,Susan Collins (R) 47% · pollster's site · release
Hypothetical matchup · Wick (R)/2WAY · 2026-06-11–2026-06-14 · n=1,008 · Graham Platner (D) 48%,Susan Collins (R) 45% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2026-06-09–2026-06-11 · n=870 · Graham Platner (D) 46%,Susan Collins (R) 45% · pollster's site · release
Hypothetical matchup · Tavern Research (partisan) · 2026-06-05–2026-06-08 · n=1,642 · Graham Platner (D) 51%,Susan Collins (R) 49% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Tavern Research (partisan) · 2026-06-05–2026-06-08 · n=1,642 · Janet Mills (D) 52%,Susan Collins (R) 48% · release
Hypothetical matchup · The Public Sentiment Institute · 2026-06-08–2026-06-08 · n=497 · Susan Collins (R) 44%,Graham Platner (D) 43% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Tavern Research (partisan) · 2026-06-05–2026-06-08 · n=1,642 · Generic Democrat 55%,Susan Collins (R) 45% · release
Democratic primary · Tavern Research (partisan) · 2026-06-05–2026-06-05 · n=704 · Graham Platner (D) 68%,Janet Mills (D) 16%,David Costello (D) 5% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (partisan) · 2026-06-01–2026-06-03 · n=800 · Graham Platner (D) 46%,Susan Collins (R) 46% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-06-02–2026-06-03 · n=670 · Graham Platner (D) 49%,Susan Collins (R) 45% · release
Hypothetical matchup · UMass Lowell/YouGov · 2026-05-13–2026-05-26 · n=650 · Graham Platner (D) 48%,Susan Collins (R) 43% · pollster's site · release
Hypothetical matchup · University of New Hampshire · 2026-05-21–2026-05-25 · n=1,280 · Graham Platner (D) 51%,Susan Collins (R) 42% · pollster's site · release
Democratic primary · University of New Hampshire · 2026-05-21–2026-05-25 · n=595 · Graham Platner (D) 76%,Janet Mills (D) 10%,David Costello (D) 3% · pollster's site · release
Hypothetical matchup · Pan Atlantic Research · 2026-05-08–2026-05-18 · n=827 · Graham Platner (D) 48%,Susan Collins (R) 41% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Echelon Insights (partisan) · 2026-04-03–2026-04-09 · n=378 · Graham Platner (D) 51%,Susan Collins (R) 45% · pollster's site · release
Hypothetical matchup · Echelon Insights (partisan) · 2026-04-03–2026-04-09 · n=378 · Janet Mills (D) 48%,Susan Collins (R) 46% · pollster's site · release
Democratic primary · Workbench Strategy (partisan) · 2026-04-06–2026-04-09 · n=600 · Graham Platner (D) 64%,Janet Mills (D) 29% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Maine People's Resource Center (partisan) · 2026-03-20–2026-03-31 · n=1,167 · Graham Platner (D) 48%,Susan Collins (R) 39% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Maine People's Resource Center (partisan) · 2026-03-20–2026-03-31 · n=1,167 · Susan Collins (R) 45%,Janet Mills (D) 42% · release
Democratic primary · Maine People's Resource Center (partisan) · 2026-03-20–2026-03-31 · n=514 · Graham Platner (D) 61%,Janet Mills (D) 28%,David Costello (D) 2% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Emerson College · 2026-03-21–2026-03-23 · n=1,075 · Graham Platner (D) 48%,Susan Collins (R) 41% · pollster's site · release
Democratic primary · Emerson College · 2026-03-21–2026-03-23 · n=530 · Graham Platner (D) 55%,Janet Mills (D) 28%,David Costello (D) 1% · pollster's site · release
Hypothetical matchup · Emerson College · 2026-03-21–2026-03-23 · n=1,075 · Janet Mills (D) 46%,Susan Collins (R) 43% · pollster's site · release
Democratic primary · Impact Research (partisan) · 2026-03-19–2026-03-23 · n=500 · Graham Platner (D) 66%,Janet Mills (D) 28% · release
Hypothetical matchup · OnMessage Public Strategies (partisan) · 2026-03-03–2026-03-08 · n=600 · Graham Platner (D) 44%,Susan Collins (R) 42% · release
Hypothetical matchup · OnMessage Public Strategies (partisan) · 2026-03-03–2026-03-08 · n=600 · Susan Collins (R) 42%,Janet Mills (D) 42% · release
Democratic primary · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2026-03-05–2026-03-05 · n=450 · Graham Platner (D) 43%,Janet Mills (D) 38% · pollster's site · release
Hypothetical matchup · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2026-03-05–2026-03-05 · n=800 · Susan Collins (R) 45%,Janet Mills (D) 43% · pollster's site · release
Hypothetical matchup · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2026-03-05–2026-03-05 · n=800 · Graham Platner (D) 49%,Susan Collins (R) 42% · pollster's site · release

In the news

Midterm Democratic blowout scrambles field of 2028 White House hopefulsNew York Post · Nov 14
Newly elected Senate Democrats in the spotlight: From the Politics DeskNBC News · Nov 13
Bipartisan process for picking GAO chief breaks downRoll Call · Nov 13
Democrats take the House and Senate, with sweeping victories on GOP turfChristian Science Monitor · Nov 4
Trump’s FDA pick faces Republican doubts as confirmation deadline nearsNBC News · Nov 12
Reporter’s Notebook: House leadership up for grabs as GOP reckons with devastating lossesFox News · Nov 10
Legislative Branch bill would hold off on GAO cutsRoll Call · Nov 13
The Hitchhiker’s Guide to what happens next on Capitol HillFox News · Nov 6
Susan Collins Finally Falls to an Election Foe: Donald TrumpNew York Times · Nov 4
At the Races: Regional realignmentRoll Call · Nov 12

Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news

Lab

Vugol Vector & Vugol Attention

Vugol Attention 32 Vugol Vector D · Tilting

Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.

Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)

Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly

attention-1.0.0

32OUT OF 100Low attention

Vugol Attention percentile43th

7-day momentum1 / 100

Source breadth50% of tracked

Vugol Vector

Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: medium

vector-1.1.0

Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean

AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored

Completeness4 of 7 inputs (national, pres, incumbent, money) · missing: prior, pulse, poll

Evidenceno audit release · fundamentals only

Freshnessoldest input 2026-11-14 (yesterday)

The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.

Desk data: daily telemetry

Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans

Sources

Roster, official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
Vugol Attention inputs, Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
Polls and results, individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
Models attention-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 447c87ee48f7 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).

Vugol Vector band: D · Tilting. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.

The four Vugol signals, side by side

They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.

Vugol Vector: Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
Vugol Tensor: How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
Vugol Attention: How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
Vugol Pulse: Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.