ME2026
U.S. Senate · Maine · 2026
General election · 2 on the November ballot · Incumbent running
Model rating Leans Democratic (Tilting) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.
No polls on file for this race. Model inputs: 4 of 7, updated yesterday. Sources · What is validated
News attention 44/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 3 days ago. How it works
On the November ballot (1)
From reported primary results, checked 2026-09-29. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.
Ran in the primary (3)
Lost a primary or runoff for this seat — not on the November ballot.
Other filers (11)
Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.
Carmem Vincent CalabreseRepublicanNot on the November ballot$18KCarmen Vincent CalabreseRepublicanNot on the November ballot$18KDaira RodriguezDemocraticNot on the November ballot$243KDan KlebanDemocraticNot on the November ballot$459KDavid Alan EvansIndependentNot on the November ballot$6KGraham PlatnerDemocraticNot on the November ballot$21.1MJordan WoodDemocraticNot on the November ballot$6.0MPaige LoudDemocraticNot on the November ballot$61KPhillip RenchIndependentNot on the November ballot$56KShenna BellowsDemocraticNot on the November ballot$381KTucker FavreauDemocraticNot on the November ballot$14K
Ballot source: https://apnews.com/projects/elections-2026/maine-primary-results-us-senate/
Latest verified field polling
Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.
No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.
Polling average
No polls on file for this race yet. See latest polls across every race.
Campaign money (FEC)
Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Susan M. Collins | $18,930,078 | $9,187,155 | $11,038,115 | 2026-06-30 |
| Andrea Laflamme | $16,254 | $6,211 | $10,043 | 2026-06-30 |
| Carmem Vincent Calabrese | $17,760 | $21,260 | $-3,500 | 2025-09-30 |
| Carmen Vincent Calabrese | $17,760 | $21,260 | $-3,500 | 2025-09-30 |
| Daira Rodriguez | $242,582 | $242,582 | $0 | 2025-12-31 |
| Dan Kleban | $458,786 | $458,700 | $87 | 2026-06-30 |
| David Alan Evans | $6,437 | $6,437 | $0 | 2025-12-31 |
| David Costello | $154,377 | $154,377 | $0 | 2026-08-26 |
| Graham Platner | $21,050,419 | $19,287,361 | $1,763,058 | 2026-06-30 |
| Janet Trafton Mills | $6,063,106 | $5,960,323 | $102,783 | 2026-06-30 |
| Jordan Wood | $6,044,820 | $5,847,146 | $197,675 | 2026-06-30 |
| Paige Loud | $60,562 | $55,806 | $4,756 | 2026-06-30 |
| Phillip Rench | $55,500 | $47,452 | $8,048 | 2025-12-31 |
| Shenna Bellows | $381,371 | $381,235 | $136 | 2026-08-31 |
| Tucker Favreau | $13,599 | $13,592 | $7 | 2026-07-12 |
Results
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.
Democratic primary · official results
| Graham Platner won | 156,084 | 72.1% |
| Janet Mills (withdrawn) | 41,644 | 19.3% |
| David Costello | 17,560 | 8.1% |
| Andrea LaFlamme (write-in) | 1,114 | 0.5% |
Republican primary
| Susan Collins (incumbent) won | 126,398 | 100.0% |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-29 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-06-09 — Primary election: U.S. Senate
- 2026-07-25 — Special convention: U.S. Senate — DEM (To replace Graham Platner on General Election Ballot)
- 2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. Senate
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (40)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.
- Hypothetical matchup · InsiderAdvantage (partisan) · 2026-09-22–2026-09-23 · n=1,200 · Troy Jackson (D) 46%, Susan Collins (R) 46% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · New York Times/Siena University · 2026-09-15–2026-09-22 · n=619 · Susan Collins (R) 49%, Troy Jackson (D) 46% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · University of New Hampshire · 2026-09-17–2026-09-21 · n=1,312 · Troy Jackson (D) 51%, Susan Collins (R) 47% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2026-09-14–2026-09-15 · n=621 · Susan Collins (R) 47%, Troy Jackson (D) 46% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · University of Massachusetts/YouGov · 2026-08-28–2026-09-14 · n=650 · Troy Jackson (D) 48%, Susan Collins (R) 43% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Rasmussen Reports (partisan) · 2026-09-08–2026-09-10 · n=1,033 · Troy Jackson (D) 46%, Susan Collins (R) 45% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · YouGov · 2026-09-02–2026-09-08 · n=1,335 · Troy Jackson (D) 48%, Susan Collins (R) 44% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · SSRS · 2026-08-31–2026-09-06 · n=880 · Troy Jackson (D) 48%, Susan Collins (R) 45% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Abacus Data · 2026-08-26–2026-08-28 · n=327 · Troy Jackson (D) 52%, Susan Collins (R) 43% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (partisan) · 2026-08-06–2026-08-10 · n=1,000 · Troy Jackson (D) 48%, Susan Collins (R) 46% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Hart Research (partisan) · 2026-07-27–2026-08-01 · n=802 · Troy Jackson (D) 49%, Susan Collins (R) 45% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · University of New Hampshire · 2026-07-15–2026-07-20 · n=1,178 · Troy Jackson (D) 49%, Susan Collins (R) 46% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Z to A Research (partisan) · 2026-07-07–2026-07-08 · n=988 · Nirav Shah (D) 47%, Susan Collins (R) 46% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Z to A Research (partisan) · 2026-07-07–2026-07-08 · n=988 · Susan Collins (R) 47%, Shenna Bellows (D) 47% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Z to A Research (partisan) · 2026-07-07–2026-07-08 · n=988 · Susan Collins (R) 48%, Troy Jackson (D) 47% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-07-07–2026-07-07 · n=785 · Susan Collins (R) 47%, Graham Platner (D) 42% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-07-07–2026-07-07 · n=785 · Shenna Bellows (D) 47%, Susan Collins (R) 47% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-07-07–2026-07-07 · n=785 · Susan Collins (R) 47%, Jordan Wood (D) 38% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-07-07–2026-07-07 · n=785 · Susan Collins (R) 48%, Janet Mills (D) 37% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-07-07–2026-07-07 · n=785 · Susan Collins (R) 45%, Nirav Shah (D) 45% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-07-07–2026-07-07 · n=785 · Troy Jackson (D) 49%, Susan Collins (R) 44% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Wedgewood Polls · 2026-07-04–2026-07-06 · n=405 · Susan Collins (R) 50%, Graham Platner (D) 46% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Tavern Research (partisan) · 2026-07-03–2026-07-06 · n=1,074 · Graham Platner (D) 52%, Susan Collins (R) 48% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Wedgewood Polls · 2026-07-04–2026-07-06 · n=405 · Janet Mills (D) 47%, Susan Collins (R) 47% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Wedgewood Polls (partisan) · 2026-07-04–2026-07-06 · n=405 · Troy Jackson (D) 48%, Susan Collins (R) 43% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Beacon Research (D)/Shaw & Co. Research (partisan) · 2026-06-23–2026-06-27 · n=1,003 · Susan Collins (R) 50%, Graham Platner (D) 47% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · The New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena University · 2026-06-19–2026-06-26 · n=608 · Graham Platner (D) 49%, Susan Collins (R) 47% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Wick (R)/2WAY · 2026-06-11–2026-06-14 · n=1,008 · Graham Platner (D) 48%, Susan Collins (R) 45% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2026-06-09–2026-06-11 · n=870 · Graham Platner (D) 46%, Susan Collins (R) 45% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Tavern Research (partisan) · 2026-06-05–2026-06-08 · n=1,642 · Graham Platner (D) 51%, Susan Collins (R) 49% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Tavern Research (partisan) · 2026-06-05–2026-06-08 · n=1,642 · Janet Mills (D) 52%, Susan Collins (R) 48% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · The Public Sentiment Institute · 2026-06-08–2026-06-08 · n=497 · Susan Collins (R) 44%, Graham Platner (D) 43% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Tavern Research (partisan) · 2026-06-05–2026-06-08 · n=1,642 · Generic Democrat 55%, Susan Collins (R) 45% · release
- Democratic primary · Tavern Research (partisan) · 2026-06-05–2026-06-05 · n=704 · Graham Platner (D) 68%, Janet Mills (D) 16%, David Costello (D) 5% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (partisan) · 2026-06-01–2026-06-03 · n=800 · Susan Collins (R) 46%, Graham Platner (D) 46% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-06-02–2026-06-03 · n=670 · Graham Platner (D) 49%, Susan Collins (R) 45% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · UMass Lowell/YouGov · 2026-05-13–2026-05-26 · n=650 · Graham Platner (D) 48%, Susan Collins (R) 43% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · University of New Hampshire · 2026-05-21–2026-05-25 · n=1,280 · Graham Platner (D) 51%, Susan Collins (R) 42% · release
- Democratic primary · University of New Hampshire · 2026-05-21–2026-05-25 · n=595 · Graham Platner (D) 76%, Janet Mills (D) 10%, David Costello (D) 3% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Pan Atlantic Research · 2026-05-08–2026-05-18 · n=827 · Graham Platner (D) 48%, Susan Collins (R) 41% · release
In the news
- Pro-Trump TV ads paid for with Customs and Border Protection money, official says
- Lawmakers cry foul over publicly funded Trump TV ads
- Dem Senate nominee breaks silence after Susan Collins' office was vandalized with vulgar message
- Confessions of a political handicapper
- New map shows how key midterm states hit by US-Canada trade war
- A past FBI inquiry complicates Susan Collins’s campaign message in Maine
- Senators press administration for answers on broadband funds
- Supreme Court vote shadows Maine Sen. Susan Collins in her first bid after abortion rights decision
- Lawmakers slam Trump’s ‘unlawful’ move to cut $810 million in federal funds
- Appropriators seek ways to curb Trump’s spending cancellations
Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news
Signals (experimental)
Attention 44 Vector D · Tilting
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
44OUT OF 100Moderate attention
Attention percentile47th
7-day momentum3 / 100
Source breadth100% of tracked
Vugol Me Vector (experimental)
Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: medium
Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean
AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored
Completeness4 of 7 inputs (national, pres, incumbent, money) · missing: prior, pulse, poll
Evidenceno verified poll · fundamentals only
Freshnessoldest input 2026-09-27 (3 days ago)
Vector component signals · estimated margin D +8.6Presidential lean of the seat (2024 D +7.1, national swing D +10.5)D +17.6Fundraising velocity (FEC)D +3.4IncumbencyR +6.0National environment: our generic-ballot average is D +7.9 (27 pollsters, as of 2026-09-29), against the 2024 national House vote of R +2.6. The seat's last result and presidential lean move by that swing; polls, incumbency and money do not. How.
Daily precision telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans
Sources
- Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 7ad922a192d1 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Band: D · Tilting (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.