U.S. Senate · Alaska · 2026
General election · 4 on the certified November ballot · Incumbent running
Looking for the House race? Alaska’s at-large U.S. House seat
Result
Not yet decidedNo result has been reported for the Alaska Senate race yet. The state publishes its count on its official results page.
Checked against our results rows (state feeds and Wikipedia’s race tables). The polls and ratings further down were published before the election and are not results.
Before the election
Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.
Model rating Leans Republican (Open) on the Vugol Vector model, a snapshot of today, not a probability.
No polls on file for this race. Model inputs: 4 of 7, updated today. Page updated 2026-11-14. Sources · What is validated
ExperimentalNews attention 63/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 4 days ago. How it works
On the November ballot (4)
Certified by the state, checked 2026-11-13.
Also on the certified ballot: Gerald L. Heikes (Republican)
Official source: https://www.elections.alaska.gov/candidates/?election=26genr
Latest verified field polling
Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.
No verified poll has been published for this race. The Vugol Vector call from our model is below, it is not a poll.
Polling average
No polls on file for this race yet. See latest polls across every race.
Campaign money (FEC)
Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan S. Sullivan | $14,107,205 | $11,999,191 | $2,839,758 | 2026-10-14 |
| Daniel J Sullivan Jr. | $30,556 | $28,654 | $1,902 | 2026-10-14 |
| Mary Peltola | $36,887,509 | $32,785,383 | $4,102,126 | 2026-10-14 |
Ad spending (FEC)
What each campaign reported paying for ads, and what outside groups (super PACs, PACs and parties) reported spending for and against each candidate. Federal Election Commission filings, public domain.
| Candidate | Campaign's own ads | Outside groups for | Outside groups against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mary Peltola | $5M | $11.1M | $42.4M |
| Dan S. Sullivan | $1.3M | $11.7M | $39.5M |
| Daniel J Sullivan Jr. | $0 | $70K |
Biggest outside spenders
- Mary Peltola. For: MIDNIGHT SUN PAC $4.3M, Lower Costs Now $2.3M, Forward Alaska $2M. Against: SLF PAC $17.6M, LAST FRONTIER PAC $10.8M, NO GOING BACK PAC INC. $5.6M
- Dan S. Sullivan. For: Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc. (AFP Action) DBA CVA Action and DBA LIBRE Action $3.9M, NO GOING BACK PAC INC. $3.9M, Club for Growth Action $1.5M. Against: North Star $16.1M, Women Vote $5.6M, WinSenate $4.7M
- Daniel J Sullivan Jr.. Against: Working America $70K, WorkMoney, Inc. $536
Outside groups: 24- and 48-hour independent expenditure reports for the 2026 primary and general, through 2026-11-03, each expenditure counted once after amendments; "ads" is TV, radio, digital and other media, and the rest is mail, phones, canvassing and similar. Campaign's own ads: TV, radio, digital, other media and ad production in the campaign committee's itemized payments, as the campaign described them, from the reports the FEC has processed (latest through 2026-07-29); newer reports appear as the FEC processes them. These are amounts committees reported paying, not airtime tracked by ad-monitoring firms, so very recent buys and future reservations may not show yet. Parser fec-ad-spend-1.0.0.
Results
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state’s official results.
Alaskan Party primary · official results
| Earl D. "Skip" Southworth | 803 | 0.5% |
Democratic primary · official results
| Mary Peltola won | 82,244 | 49.5% |
| David Leslie (withdrew) | 1,850 | 1.1% |
| Carol Hafner | 1,009 | 0.6% |
Green primary · official results
| Richard Grayson | 432 | 0.3% |
Independent politician primary · official results
| Reece Roberts | 602 | 0.4% |
| Sid Hill | 522 | 0.3% |
| Shirley Saucerman | 306 | 0.2% |
Libertarian primary · official results
| Scott Kohlhaas | 794 | 0.5% |
No party listed primary · official results
| Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. advanced | 4,107 | 2.5% |
| Dan J. Sullivan advanced | 4,107 | 2.5% |
Republican primary · official results
| Dan S. Sullivan (incumbent) advanced | 68,726 | 41.4% |
| Gerald L. Heikes advanced | 1,741 | 1.1% |
| Heather McElwain | 972 | 0.6% |
| Dustin Darden | 808 | 0.5% |
| Richard Benedict Mayers | 609 | 0.4% |
| Fred C. Grauberger | 479 | 0.3% |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-11-14 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-08-18, Primary election: U.S. Senate
- 2026-11-03, General election: U.S. Senate
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (30)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to that article revision and, where we know it, to the pollster's own site.
- Hypothetical matchup · AtlasIntel · 2026-10-28–2026-11-01 · n=522 · Mary Peltola (D) 50%,Dan S. Sullivan (R) 45%,Gerald Heikes (R) 2%,Dan J. Sullivan (I) 1% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · InsiderAdvantage (partisan) · 2026-10-31–2026-11-01 · n=1,200 · Dan S. Sullivan (R) 48%,Mary Peltola (D) 48%,Dan J. Sullivan (I) 2%,Gerald Heikes (R) 1% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · New York Times/Siena University · 2026-10-23–2026-10-30 · n=610 · Mary Peltola (D) 48%,Dan S. Sullivan (R) 46% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Data for Progress (partisan) · 2026-10-08–2026-10-16 · n=694 · Mary Peltola (D) 47%,Dan S. Sullivan (R) 44%,Dan J. Sullivan (R) 4%,Gerald Heikes (R) 1% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Rasmussen Reports (partisan) · 2026-10-12–2026-10-15 · n=775 · Mary Peltola (D) 44%,Dan S. Sullivan (R) 42%,Gerald Heikes (R) 4%,Dan J. Sullivan (R) 3% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · InsiderAdvantage (partisan) · 2026-10-09–2026-10-10 · n=1,200 · Mary Peltola (D) 48%,Dan S. Sullivan (R) 43%,Gerald Heikes (R) 2%,Dan J. Sullivan (R) 2% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · New York Times/Siena University · 2026-09-24–2026-10-01 · n=504 · Mary Peltola (D) 50%,Dan S. Sullivan (R) 43% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2026-09-28–2026-09-30 · n=758 · Mary Peltola (D) 46%,Dan S. Sullivan (R) 46%,Dan J. Sullivan (R) 2%,Gerald Heikes (R) 1% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Trafalgar Group (partisan) · 2026-09-22–2026-09-24 · n=1,079 · Dan S. Sullivan (R) 47%,Mary Peltola (D) 46%,Dan J. Sullivan (R) 3%,Gerald Heikes (R) 1% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · co/efficient (partisan) · 2026-09-14–2026-09-17 · n=799 · Dan S. Sullivan (R) 48%,Mary Peltola (D) 46%,Dan J. Sullivan (R) 1%,Gerald Heikes (R) 1% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · co/efficient (partisan) · 2026-09-14–2026-09-17 · n=799 · Generic Republican 49%,Generic Democrat 44% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Rasmussen Reports (partisan) · 2026-09-13–2026-09-14 · n=1,188 · Dan S. Sullivan (R) 39%,Mary Peltola (D) 39%,Dan J. Sullivan (R) 7%,Gerald Heikes (R) 6% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (partisan) · 2026-09-08–2026-09-11 · n=800 · Mary Peltola (D) 45%,Dan S. Sullivan (R) 41%,Dan J. Sullivan (R) 4%,Gerald Heikes (R) 3% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (partisan) · 2026-09-08–2026-09-11 · n=800 · Mary Peltola (D) 46%,Dan S. Sullivan (R) 41%,Dan J. Sullivan (R) 4%,Gerald Heikes (R) 3% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Alaska Survey Research · 2026-08-20–2026-08-23 · n=1,495 · Mary Peltola (D) 51%,Dan S. Sullivan (R) 49% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Alaska Survey Research · 2026-08-02–2026-08-05 · n=1,371 · Mary Peltola (D) 51%,Dan S. Sullivan (R) 49% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Data for Progress (partisan) · 2026-07-28–2026-08-04 · n=605 · Mary Peltola (D) 45%,Dan S. Sullivan (R) 41%,Dan J. Sullivan (R) 4%,Gerald Heikes (R) 3% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · New York Times/Siena University · 2026-06-15–2026-06-29 · n=593 · Dan S. Sullivan (R) 47%,Mary Peltola (D) 45% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Alaska Survey Research · 2026-06-04–2026-06-07 · n=1,393 · Mary Peltola (D) 49%,Dan S. Sullivan (R) 44%,Gerald Heikes (R) 4% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Alaska Survey Research · 2026-05-14–2026-05-17 · n=1,401 · Mary Peltola (D) 48%,Dan S. Sullivan (R) 44%,Gerald Heikes (R) 3% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Alaska Survey Research · 2026-04-16–2026-04-19 · n=1,946 · Mary Peltola (D) 49%,Dan S. Sullivan (R) 43%,James Ryan (R) 5%,Sid Hill (I) 3%,RCV round 1% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Alaska Survey Research · 2026-03-19–2026-03-22 · n=961 · Mary Peltola (D) 49%,Dan S. Sullivan (R) 44%,Christopher Miklos (R) 5%,Ann Diener (D) 2%,RCV round 1% · release
- primary · Alaska Survey Research · 2026-03-19–2026-03-22 · n=1,283 · Mary Peltola (D) 46%,Dan S. Sullivan (R) 41%,James Ryan (R) 3%,Sid Hill (I) 3%,Ann Diener (D) 2%,Christopher Miklos (R) 2%,William Hunt (D) 1%,Richard Grayson (G) 1%,Fred Grauberger (R) 1% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Alaska Survey Research · 2026-03-19–2026-03-22 · n=1,590 · Mary Peltola (D) 49%,Dan S. Sullivan (R) 44% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-01-16–2026-01-17 · n=611 · Mary Peltola (D) 49%,Dan S. Sullivan (R) 47% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Alaska Survey Research · 2026-01-08–2026-01-11 · n=1,988 · Mary Peltola (D) 48%,Dan S. Sullivan (R) 46% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Data for Progress (partisan) · 2025-10-17–2025-10-23 · n=823 · Mary Peltola (D) 46%,Dan S. Sullivan (R) 45% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Alaska Survey Research · 2025-10-10–2025-10-15 · n=1,708 · Mary Peltola (D) 48%,Dan S. Sullivan (R) 46% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Alaska Survey Research · 2025-07-29–2025-08-01 · n=1,623 · Dan S. Sullivan (R) 47%,Mary Peltola (D) 42% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Data for Progress (partisan) · 2025-07-21–2025-07-27 · n=678 · Dan S. Sullivan (R) 46%,Mary Peltola (D) 45% · pollster's site · release
In the news
- Alaskans opt to stick with ranked choice voting
- Schumer's leadership rival reveals major Senate rule change he'd pursue if elected
- Van Hollen announces bid for majority leader, but Schumer says he has the votes
- Newly elected Senate Democrats in the spotlight: From the Politics Desk
- Schumer's former ally mounts leadership challenge as Democrats face rare internal power struggle
- At the Races: Regional realignment
- Alaska judge rules against Peltola request for Senate race ballot data
- Peltola holds lead after latest Alaska Senate vote drop
- Peltola campaign loses in court on rejected absentee ballots as she maintains narrow lead
- Alaska judge denies Peltola campaign request for list of rejected absentee ballots
Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news
LabVugol Vector & Vugol Attention
Vugol Attention 63 Vugol Vector R · Open
Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
Vugol Vector
Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: medium
The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.
Vugol Tensor
How far this call can miss · a range, not a prediction · no verified poll here, so the range is wider and untested
Centre R+2.0. Four times in five the result lands between D+7.4 and R+11.4; nine in ten between D+10.1 and R+14.1. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: 39%.
Polls have missed by about four points in a typical race and they miss together. How Tensor works →
Desk data: daily telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans
Sources
- Roster, official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Vugol Attention inputs, Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results, individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models attention-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 6d9ec561412e · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Vugol Vector band: Toss-up. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.
The four Vugol signals, side by side
They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.
- Vugol Vector
- Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
- Vugol Tensor
- How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
- Vugol Attention
- How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
- Vugol Pulse
- Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.