AK2026

U.S. Senate · Alaska · 2026

Name: U.S. Senate, Alaska — Vugol Me Attention & Vector
Creator: Vugol Me
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

General election · 4 on the certified November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)

Looking for the House race? Alaska’s at-large U.S. House seat

Community poll

Model rating Leans Republican (Open) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.

No polls on file for this race. Model inputs: 4 of 7, updated today. Sources · What is validated

News attention — — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. First run pending. How it works

On the November ballot (2)

Certified by the state, checked 2026-09-30.

Daniel J SullivanU.S. Senate — AK · FEC S6AK00326RepublicanOn the ballotFEC raised$19K Mary PeltolaU.S. Senate — AK · FEC S6AK00276DemocraticOn the ballotFEC raised$18.5M

Also on the certified ballot: Dan S. Sullivan (Republican), Gerald L. Heikes (Republican).

Not on the certified ballot (1)

Filed or ran for this seat, but not on the state’s certified list for November.

Dan SullivanU.S. Senate — AK · FEC S4AK00214Republican IncumbentNot on the November ballotFEC raised$11.7M

Official source: https://www.elections.alaska.gov/candidates/?election=26genr

Latest verified field polling

Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.

none yet

No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.

Polling average

no polls yet

No polls on file for this race yet. See latest polls across every race.

Campaign money (FEC)

Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Through
Dan Sullivan Republican	$11,735,898	$5,172,572	$7,295,069	2026-07-29
Daniel J Sullivan Republican	$18,835	$10,435	$8,400	2026-07-29
Mary Peltola Democratic	$18,545,132	$13,908,377	$4,636,755	2026-07-29

Results

Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.

Alaskan Party primary · official results

Earl D. "Skip" Southworth	803	0.5%

Democratic primary · official results

Mary Peltola won	82,244	49.5%
David Leslie (withdrew)	1,850	1.1%
Carol Hafner	1,009	0.6%

Green primary · official results

Richard Grayson	432	0.3%

Independent politician primary · official results

Reece Roberts	602	0.4%
Sid Hill	522	0.3%
Shirley Saucerman	306	0.2%

Libertarian primary · official results

Scott Kohlhaas	794	0.5%

No party listed primary · official results

Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. won	4,107	2.5%

Republican primary · official results

Dan S. Sullivan (incumbent) advanced	68,726	41.4%
Gerald L. Heikes advanced	1,741	1.1%
Heather McElwain	972	0.6%
Dustin Darden	808	0.5%
Richard Benedict Mayers	609	0.4%
Fred C. Grauberger	479	0.3%

Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-30 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0

Key dates

Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.

2026-08-18 — Primary election: U.S. Senate
2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. Senate

Source: FEC election dates (public domain).

Primary and hypothetical polls (23)

Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.

Hypothetical matchup · Trafalgar Group (partisan) · 2026-09-22–2026-09-24 · n=1,079 · Dan S. Sullivan (R) 47%, Mary Peltola (D) 46%, Dan J. Sullivan (R) 3%, Gerald Heikes (R) 1% · release
Hypothetical matchup · co/efficient (partisan) · 2026-09-14–2026-09-17 · n=799 · Dan S. Sullivan (R) 48%, Mary Peltola (D) 46%, Dan J. Sullivan (R) 1%, Gerald Heikes (R) 1% · release
Hypothetical matchup · co/efficient (partisan) · 2026-09-14–2026-09-17 · n=799 · Generic Republican 49%, Generic Democrat 44% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Rasmussen Reports (partisan) · 2026-09-13–2026-09-14 · n=1,188 · Dan S. Sullivan (R) 39%, Mary Peltola (D) 39%, Dan J. Sullivan (R) 7%, Gerald Heikes (R) 6% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (partisan) · 2026-09-08–2026-09-11 · n=800 · Mary Peltola (D) 45%, Dan S. Sullivan (R) 41%, Dan J. Sullivan (R) 4%, Gerald Heikes (R) 3% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (partisan) · 2026-09-08–2026-09-11 · n=800 · Mary Peltola (D) 46%, Dan S. Sullivan (R) 41%, Dan J. Sullivan (R) 4%, Gerald Heikes (R) 3% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Alaska Survey Research · 2026-08-20–2026-08-23 · n=1,495 · Mary Peltola (D) 51%, Dan S. Sullivan (R) 49% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Alaska Survey Research · 2026-08-02–2026-08-05 · n=1,371 · Mary Peltola (D) 51%, Dan S. Sullivan (R) 49% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Data for Progress (partisan) · 2026-07-28–2026-08-04 · n=605 · Mary Peltola (D) 45%, Dan S. Sullivan (R) 41%, Dan J. Sullivan (R) 4%, Gerald Heikes (R) 3% · release
Hypothetical matchup · New York Times/Siena University · 2026-06-15–2026-06-29 · n=593 · Dan S. Sullivan (R) 47%, Mary Peltola (D) 45% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Alaska Survey Research · 2026-06-04–2026-06-07 · n=1,393 · Mary Peltola (D) 49%, Dan S. Sullivan (R) 44%, Gerald Heikes (R) 4% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Alaska Survey Research · 2026-05-14–2026-05-17 · n=1,401 · Mary Peltola (D) 48%, Dan S. Sullivan (R) 44%, Gerald Heikes (R) 3% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Alaska Survey Research · 2026-04-16–2026-04-19 · n=1,946 · Mary Peltola (D) 49%, Dan S. Sullivan (R) 43% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Alaska Survey Research · 2026-04-16–2026-04-19 · n=1,946 · Mary Peltola (D) 49%, Dan S. Sullivan (R) 43%, James Ryan (R) 5%, Sid Hill (I) 3%, RCV round 1% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Alaska Survey Research · 2026-03-19–2026-03-22 · n=961 · Mary Peltola (D) 49%, Dan S. Sullivan (R) 44%, Christopher Miklos (R) 5%, Ann Diener (D) 2%, RCV round 1% · release
primary · Alaska Survey Research · 2026-03-19–2026-03-22 · n=1,283 · Mary Peltola (D) 46%, Dan S. Sullivan (R) 41%, James Ryan (R) 3%, Sid Hill (I) 3%, Christopher Miklos (R) 2%, Ann Diener (D) 2%, Fred Grauberger (R) 1%, Richard Grayson (G) 1%, William Hunt (D) 1% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Alaska Survey Research · 2026-03-19–2026-03-22 · n=1,590 · Mary Peltola (D) 49%, Dan S. Sullivan (R) 44% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-01-16–2026-01-17 · n=611 · Mary Peltola (D) 49%, Dan S. Sullivan (R) 47% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Alaska Survey Research · 2026-01-08–2026-01-11 · n=1,988 · Mary Peltola (D) 48%, Dan S. Sullivan (R) 46% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Data for Progress (partisan) · 2025-10-17–2025-10-23 · n=823 · Mary Peltola (D) 46%, Dan S. Sullivan (R) 45% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Alaska Survey Research · 2025-10-10–2025-10-15 · n=1,708 · Mary Peltola (D) 48%, Dan S. Sullivan (R) 46% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Alaska Survey Research · 2025-07-29–2025-08-01 · n=1,623 · Dan S. Sullivan (R) 47%, Mary Peltola (D) 42% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Data for Progress (partisan) · 2025-07-21–2025-07-27 · n=678 · Dan S. Sullivan (R) 46%, Mary Peltola (D) 45% · release

In the news

The most vulnerable senators of 2026, about a month out from Election DayRoll Call · Sep 30
$10 for a gallon of gas has red Alaska thinking about a Democratic senatorWashington Post · Sep 29
Republicans say Democrats are extremists. These Democrats want to convince voters that's not trueABC News · Sep 23

Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news

Signals (experimental)

Attention — Vector R · Open

Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)

Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly

pulse-1.0.0

Signals for this race are being collected. The first Attention score lands after the nightly run reaches it; nothing is estimated in the meantime.

Vugol Me Vector (experimental)

Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: medium

vector-1.1.0

Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean

AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored

Completeness4 of 7 inputs (national, pres, incumbent, money) · missing: prior, pulse, poll

Evidenceno verified poll · fundamentals only

Freshnessoldest input 2026-09-30 (today)

Vector component signals · estimated margin R +2.9Presidential lean of the seat (2024 R +13.7, national swing D +10.5)R +3.2Fundraising velocity (FEC)D +2.6IncumbencyR +6.0National environment: our generic-ballot average is D +7.9 (27 pollsters, as of 2026-09-30), against the 2024 national House vote of R +2.6. The seat's last result and presidential lean move by that swing; polls, incumbency and money do not. How.

Daily precision telemetry

Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans

Sources

Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).

Band: Toss-up (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.