Hochul +14
- Kathy Hochul Democratic: 55%
- Bruce Blakeman Republican: 41%
Other 2% · Undecided 2%
NY2026
Governor · New York · 2026
General election · 2 on the November ballot · Incumbent running
Result
CalledKathy Hochul (D) won this race.
- Kathy HochulDemocraticWinnerno count in the source
Also on the ballot, no count in the source: Bruce Blakeman (R).
- Called
- Called by Wikipedia editors, Nov 3, 9:24 PM ET (revision)
- Last updated
- Nov 4, 10:47 AM ET
Called it: hit Our locked call before polls closed was D; the winner is D. See every locked call
Unofficial until the state certifies the result.
Before the election
Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.
Race poll averageGovernor · New York
Kathy Hochul
57%
Bruce Blakeman
43%
Verified poll average · 9 polls · newest poll ended 2026-10-19
Verified polls Hochul leads Blakeman by 13.7 points in our average of verified polls.
9 verified polls averaged, newest ended 2026-10-19. Page updated 2026-11-15. Sources · What is validated
ExperimentalNews attention 59/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 2 days ago. How it works
On the November ballot (2)
From reported primary results, checked 2026-11-04. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.
Other filers (1)
Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.
Ballot source: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections&oldid=1383740551
Hochul +14
- Kathy Hochul Democratic: Incumbent56.9%
- Bruce Blakeman Republican: 43.1%
Latest verified field polling
Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.
Cite / verify
Cite thishttps://vugol.me/races/US-NY-GOV
Sourcehttps://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3972
Retrieved2026-11-15
Polling average Updates as polls arrive
56.9% Kathy Hochul43.1% Bruce Blakeman
Kathy Hochul (D)Bruce Blakeman (R)● verified poll · ○ quarantined poll · ◎ live average
Vugol Tensor
How far this poll average can miss · a range, not a prediction
Centre D+13.7. Four times in five the result lands between D+20.4 and D+7.0; nine in ten between D+22.3 and D+5.1. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: >99%.
Same inputs as the Vugol Tensor page: the verified polling average above (9 verified polls), plus how far polls have missed since 1998. In the backtest the plain poll average picked the wrong winner in about 11% of polled, mostly competitive races (11.2%, 946 races, 1998 to 2024), and polls miss together. Not a forecast guarantee. How Tensor works →
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-06-23, Primary election: U.S. House
- 2026-11-03, General election: U.S. House
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (32)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to that article revision and, where we know it, to the pollster's own site.
- Hypothetical matchup · Siena College · 2025-12-08–2025-12-12 · n=801 · Kathy Hochul (D) 49%,Elise Stefanik (R) 30% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Siena College · 2025-11-10–2025-11-12 · n=802 · Kathy Hochul (D) 52%,Elise Stefanik (R) 32% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · J.L. Partners (partisan) · 2025-11-09–2025-11-10 · n=500 · Kathy Hochul (D) 46%,Elise Stefanik (R) 43% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · J.L. Partners (partisan) · 2025-11-09–2025-11-10 · n=500 · Kathy Hochul (D) 45%,Generic Republican 42% · pollster's site · release
- Republican primary · J.L. Partners (partisan) · 2025-11-09–2025-11-10 · n=400 · Elise Stefanik 74%,Bruce Blakeman (R) 5% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Manhattan Institute (partisan) · 2025-10-22–2025-10-26 · n=900 · Elise Stefanik (R) 43%,Kathy Hochul (D) 42% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Manhattan Institute (partisan) · 2025-10-22–2025-10-26 · n=900 · Elise Stefanik (R) 43%,Antonio Delgado (D) 37% · release
- Democratic primary · Grayhouse (partisan) · 2025-09-20–2025-09-26 · n=605 · Kathy Hochul (D) 43%,Antonio Delgado 14% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Grayhouse (partisan) · 2025-09-20–2025-09-26 · n=1,250 · Kathy Hochul (D) 48%,Elise Stefanik (R) 43% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Siena College · 2025-09-08–2025-09-10 · n=802 · Kathy Hochul (D) 52%,Elise Stefanik (R) 27% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Siena College · 2025-08-04–2025-08-07 · n=813 · Kathy Hochul (D) 45%,Elise Stefanik (R) 31% · pollster's site · release
- Democratic primary · Siena College · 2025-08-04–2025-08-07 · n=813 · Kathy Hochul (D) 50%,Antonio Delgado 15% · pollster's site · release
- Democratic primary · Siena College · 2025-06-23–2025-06-26 · n=800 · Kathy Hochul (D) 49%,Antonio Delgado 12%,Ritchie Torres 10% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Siena College · 2025-06-23–2025-06-26 · n=800 · Kathy Hochul (D) 44%,Mike Lawler (R) 24% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Siena College · 2025-06-23–2025-06-26 · n=800 · Kathy Hochul (D) 47%,Elise Stefanik (R) 24% · pollster's site · release
- Republican primary · Siena College · 2025-06-23–2025-06-26 · n=800 · Elise Stefanik 35%,Mike Lawler 18%,Bruce Blakeman (R) 7% · pollster's site · release
- Republican primary · co/efficient (partisan) · 2025-06-18–2025-06-20 · n=1,108 · Elise Stefanik 64%,Mike Lawler 8%,Bruce Blakeman (R) 6% · pollster's site · release
- Democratic primary · Siena College · 2025-05-12–2025-05-15 · n=805 · Kathy Hochul (D) 46%,Antonio Delgado 12%,Ritchie Torres 10% · pollster's site · release
- Republican primary · Siena College · 2025-05-12–2025-05-15 · n=805 · Elise Stefanik 35%,Mike Lawler 22%,Bruce Blakeman (R) 11% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Harper Polling (partisan) · 2025-05-07–2025-05-09 · n=600 · Kathy Hochul (D) 48%,Mike Lawler (R) 41% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Harper Polling (partisan) · 2025-05-07–2025-05-09 · n=600 · Kathy Hochul (D) 50%,Elise Stefanik (R) 39% · release
- Republican primary · co/efficient (partisan) · 2025-05-01–2025-05-02 · n=1,163 · Elise Stefanik 56%,Mike Lawler 9%,Bruce Blakeman (R) 8% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Grayhouse (partisan) · 2025-04-22–2025-04-24 · n=600 · Kathy Hochul (D) 46%,Elise Stefanik (R) 40% · release
- Republican primary · Grayhouse (partisan) · 2025-04-22–2025-04-24 · n=400 · Elise Stefanik 44%,Mike Lawler 7%,Bruce Blakeman (R) 5% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Grayhouse (partisan) · 2025-04-22–2025-04-24 · n=600 · Kathy Hochul (D) 45%,Mike Lawler (R) 38% · release
- Democratic primary · Grayhouse (partisan) · 2025-04-22–2025-04-24 · n=262 · Kathy Hochul (D) 24%,Ritchie Torres 7%,Antonio Delgado 6% · release
- Democratic primary · Siena College · 2025-04-14–2025-04-16 · n=802 · Kathy Hochul (D) 44%,Antonio Delgado 12%,Ritchie Torres 9% · pollster's site · release
- Republican primary · Siena College · 2025-04-14–2025-04-16 · n=802 · Bruce Blakeman (R) 28%,Mike Lawler 22% · pollster's site · release
- Democratic primary · Data for Progress (partisan) · 2025-03-26–2025-03-31 · n=767 · Kathy Hochul (D) 51%,Ritchie Torres 11%,Antonio Delgado 11% · pollster's site · release
- Republican primary · Siena College · 2025-03-02–2025-03-06 · n=400 · Mike Lawler 25%,Bruce Blakeman (R) 13% · pollster's site · release
- Democratic primary · Siena College · 2025-03-02–2025-03-06 · n=400 · Kathy Hochul (D) 46%,Antonio Delgado 11%,Ritchie Torres 10% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Citizen Data · 2025-02-10–2025-02-10 · n=1,000 · Kathy Hochul (D) 46%,Mike Lawler (R) 38% · release
In the news
- NYC DSA hatches 2028 White House push for AOC, and plot to topple establishment state Dems
- Blakeman rips 'selfish' Stefanik after losing New York governor's race
- Routine voting issues fuel conspiracy theories and confusion
- Newsom reveals when he'll decide on 2028 White House bid amid growing speculation
- Transcript: Rep. Mike Lawler on "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan," Nov. 1, 2026
- Watch live: Trump takes midterm campaign push to deep-blue New York
- GOP congressman-elect makes unusual Trump request, ejects reporter during profanity-laced victory speech
- Full transcript of "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan," Nov. 1, 2026
- Hochul holds double-digit lead for New York governor, new poll finds
- Kathy Hochul entertains massive political promotion as Democrats look ahead to 2028
Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news
LabVugol Vector & Vugol Attention
Vugol Attention 59 Vugol Vector D · Held
Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
59OUT OF 100Moderate attention
Vugol Attention percentile97th
7-day momentum1 / 100
Source breadth50% of tracked
Candidate attention share · trailing 7 days69% D · 31% R
Kathy Hochul (D) 69% · volume 48 / 7dBruce Blakeman (R) 31% · volume 21 / 7d
Vugol Vector
Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: high
Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean
AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored
Completeness5 of 7 inputs (national, prior, pres, incumbent, pulse) · missing: money, poll
Evidenceno audit release · fundamentals only
Freshnessoldest input 2026-11-13 (2 days ago)
The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.
Desk data: daily telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans
Sources
- Roster, official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Vugol Attention inputs, Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results, individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models attention-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 6ab1decf06c0 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Vugol Vector band: D · Held. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.
The four Vugol signals, side by side
They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.
- Vugol Vector
- Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
- Vugol Tensor
- How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
- Vugol Attention
- How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
- Vugol Pulse
- Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.