Governor · New York · 2026
General election · 3 on file, ballot not yet verified · Incumbent running
Model rating Leans Democratic (Held) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.
23 polls on file from pollsters we have not verified yet — shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 4 of 7, updated yesterday. Sources · What is validated
News attention — — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. First run pending. How it works
Candidates on file — ballot not yet verified (3)
From FEC filings and public records. Filing with the FEC does not put someone on the ballot; we are checking each state’s certified candidate list and will mark who is on the November ballot.
Latest verified field polling
Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.
No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.
Polling average
23 polls on file for this race, all from quarantined (U-tier) pollsters — visible below, not yet averaged.
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-06-23 — Primary election: U.S. House
- 2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. House
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (32)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.
- Hypothetical matchup · Siena College · 2025-12-08–2025-12-12 · n=801 · Kathy Hochul (D) 49%, Elise Stefanik (R) 30% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Siena College · 2025-11-10–2025-11-12 · n=802 · Kathy Hochul (D) 52%, Elise Stefanik (R) 32% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · J.L. Partners (partisan) · 2025-11-09–2025-11-10 · n=500 · Kathy Hochul (D) 46%, Elise Stefanik (R) 43% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · J.L. Partners (partisan) · 2025-11-09–2025-11-10 · n=500 · Kathy Hochul (D) 45%, Generic Republican 42% · release
- Republican primary · J.L. Partners (partisan) · 2025-11-09–2025-11-10 · n=400 · Elise Stefanik 74%, Bruce Blakeman (R) 5% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Manhattan Institute (partisan) · 2025-10-22–2025-10-26 · n=900 · Elise Stefanik (R) 43%, Kathy Hochul (D) 42% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Manhattan Institute (partisan) · 2025-10-22–2025-10-26 · n=900 · Elise Stefanik (R) 43%, Antonio Delgado (D) 37% · release
- Democratic primary · Grayhouse (partisan) · 2025-09-20–2025-09-26 · n=605 · Kathy Hochul (D) 43%, Antonio Delgado 14% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Grayhouse (partisan) · 2025-09-20–2025-09-26 · n=1,250 · Kathy Hochul (D) 48%, Elise Stefanik (R) 43% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Siena College · 2025-09-08–2025-09-10 · n=802 · Kathy Hochul (D) 52%, Elise Stefanik (R) 27% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Siena College · 2025-08-04–2025-08-07 · n=813 · Kathy Hochul (D) 45%, Elise Stefanik (R) 31% · release
- Democratic primary · Siena College · 2025-08-04–2025-08-07 · n=813 · Kathy Hochul (D) 50%, Antonio Delgado 15% · release
- Democratic primary · Siena College · 2025-06-23–2025-06-26 · n=800 · Kathy Hochul (D) 49%, Antonio Delgado 12%, Ritchie Torres 10% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Siena College · 2025-06-23–2025-06-26 · n=800 · Kathy Hochul (D) 44%, Mike Lawler (R) 24% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Siena College · 2025-06-23–2025-06-26 · n=800 · Kathy Hochul (D) 47%, Elise Stefanik (R) 24% · release
- Republican primary · Siena College · 2025-06-23–2025-06-26 · n=800 · Elise Stefanik 35%, Mike Lawler 18%, Bruce Blakeman (R) 7% · release
- Republican primary · co/efficient (partisan) · 2025-06-18–2025-06-20 · n=1,108 · Elise Stefanik 64%, Mike Lawler 8%, Bruce Blakeman (R) 6% · release
- Democratic primary · Siena College · 2025-05-12–2025-05-15 · n=805 · Kathy Hochul (D) 46%, Antonio Delgado 12%, Ritchie Torres 10% · release
- Republican primary · Siena College · 2025-05-12–2025-05-15 · n=805 · Elise Stefanik 35%, Mike Lawler 22%, Bruce Blakeman (R) 11% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Harper Polling (partisan) · 2025-05-07–2025-05-09 · n=600 · Kathy Hochul (D) 48%, Mike Lawler (R) 41% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Harper Polling (partisan) · 2025-05-07–2025-05-09 · n=600 · Kathy Hochul (D) 50%, Elise Stefanik (R) 39% · release
- Republican primary · co/efficient (partisan) · 2025-05-01–2025-05-02 · n=1,163 · Elise Stefanik 56%, Mike Lawler 9%, Bruce Blakeman (R) 8% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Grayhouse (partisan) · 2025-04-22–2025-04-24 · n=600 · Kathy Hochul (D) 46%, Elise Stefanik (R) 40% · release
- Republican primary · Grayhouse (partisan) · 2025-04-22–2025-04-24 · n=400 · Elise Stefanik 44%, Mike Lawler 7%, Bruce Blakeman (R) 5% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Grayhouse (partisan) · 2025-04-22–2025-04-24 · n=600 · Kathy Hochul (D) 45%, Mike Lawler (R) 38% · release
- Democratic primary · Grayhouse (partisan) · 2025-04-22–2025-04-24 · n=262 · Kathy Hochul (D) 24%, Ritchie Torres 7%, Antonio Delgado 6% · release
- Democratic primary · Siena College · 2025-04-14–2025-04-16 · n=802 · Kathy Hochul (D) 44%, Antonio Delgado 12%, Ritchie Torres 9% · release
- Republican primary · Siena College · 2025-04-14–2025-04-16 · n=802 · Bruce Blakeman (R) 28%, Mike Lawler 22% · release
- Democratic primary · Data for Progress (partisan) · 2025-03-26–2025-03-31 · n=767 · Kathy Hochul (D) 51%, Ritchie Torres 11%, Antonio Delgado 11% · release
- Republican primary · Siena College · 2025-03-02–2025-03-06 · n=400 · Mike Lawler 25%, Bruce Blakeman (R) 13% · release
- Democratic primary · Siena College · 2025-03-02–2025-03-06 · n=400 · Kathy Hochul (D) 46%, Antonio Delgado 11%, Ritchie Torres 10% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Citizen Data · 2025-02-10–2025-02-10 · n=1,000 · Kathy Hochul (D) 46%, Mike Lawler (R) 38% · release
In the news
- Blakeman taunts Hochul with Massapequa Chiefs name — as high schoolers troll NYS logo ‘ban’
- Read full episode transcripts of "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan" from 2026
- Dems want Hochul to drop $23.9 billion nuclear subsidy plan
- House panel accuses NY of flouting law by ignoring fraud risk to Medicaid providers
- Bill Gates says AI companies self-regulating isn’t enough and governments should be involved
- SCOTUS detention fight could unleash dangerous criminal migrants onto US streets, experts warns
Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news
Signals (experimental)
Attention — Vector D · Held
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
Signals for this race are being collected. The first Attention score lands after the nightly run reaches it; nothing is estimated in the meantime.
Vugol Me Vector (experimental)
Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: high
Daily precision telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans
Sources
- Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Band: D · Held (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.