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NH2026

U.S. Senate · New Hampshire · 2026

Name: U.S. Senate, New Hampshire — Vugol Me Attention & Vector
Creator: Vugol Me
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

General election · 3 on the November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)

Community poll

Model rating Leans Democratic (Held) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.

24 polls on file from pollsters we have not verified yet — shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 3 of 7, updated yesterday. Sources · What is validated

News attention 60/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 4 days ago. How it works

On the November ballot (2)

From reported primary results, checked 2026-09-29. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.

Chris PappasU.S. Senate — NH · FEC S6NH00141DemocraticOn the ballotFEC raised$15.4M John E SununuU.S. Senate — NH · FEC S6NH00208RepublicanOn the ballotFEC raised$4.2M

Ran in the primary (2)

Lost a primary or runoff for this seat — not on the November ballot.

Karishma ManzurU.S. Senate — NH · FEC S6NH00182DemocraticLost primaryFEC raised$415K Scott P. BrownU.S. Senate — NH · FEC S6NH00166RepublicanLost primaryFEC raised$2.2M

Other filers (2)

Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.

Dan InnisU.S. Senate — NH · FEC S6NH00174RepublicanNot on the November ballotFEC raised$49K Jared SullivanU.S. Senate — NH · FEC S6NH00190DemocraticNot on the November ballotFEC raised$100K

Ballot source: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire&oldid=1377426493

Latest verified field polling

Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.

none yet

No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.

Polling average

no verified inputs yet

24 polls on file for this race, all from quarantined (U-tier) pollsters — visible below, not yet averaged.

Chris Pappas (D)John E. Sununu (R)● verified poll · ○ quarantined poll · ◎ live average

Campaign money (FEC)

Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Through
Chris Pappas Democratic	$15,384,657	$11,540,323	$4,251,918	2026-08-19
Dan Innis Republican	$48,503	$48,503	$0	2026-01-25
Jared Sullivan Democratic	$100,112	$100,212	$0	2026-06-30
John E Sununu Republican	$4,180,252	$1,110,715	$3,070,033	2026-08-19
Karishma Manzur Democratic	$415,081	$311,136	$103,945	2026-08-19
Scott P. Brown Republican	$2,150,452	$1,733,910	$416,542	2026-08-19

Results

Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.

Democratic primary

Chris Pappas won	100,088	65.0%
Karishma Manzur	50,321	32.7%
David Jarvis	1,212	0.8%
John Vail	956	0.6%
Maxwell L. Saal	932	0.6%

Republican primary

John E. Sununu won	75,839	68.4%
Scott Brown	29,517	26.6%
Sky Danley	1,187	1.1%
Sabrina Ann Smith	955	0.9%
Andy Martin	789	0.7%
Mary Maxwell	774	0.7%
Tom Alciere	602	0.5%
Richard A. McMenamon II	403	0.4%

Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-29 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0

Key dates

Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.

2026-09-08 — Primary election: U.S. Senate
2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. Senate

Source: FEC election dates (public domain).

Primary and hypothetical polls (40)

Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.

Democratic primary · GQR (partisan) · 2026-08-19–2026-08-25 · n=422 · Chris Pappas (D) 71%, Karishma Manzur (D) 15% · release
Democratic primary · University of New Hampshire · 2026-08-20–2026-08-24 · n=893 · Chris Pappas (D) 47%, Karishma Manzur (D) 34% · release
Republican primary · University of New Hampshire · 2026-08-20–2026-08-24 · n=856 · John E. Sununu (R) 60%, Scott Brown (R) 20% · release
Hypothetical matchup · University of New Hampshire · 2026-08-20–2026-08-24 · n=1,878 · Chris Pappas (D) 45%, Scott Brown (R) 40% · release
Democratic primary · Saint Anselm College · 2026-08-17–2026-08-18 · n=733 · Chris Pappas (D) 59%, Karishma Manzur (D) 28% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Saint Anselm College · 2026-08-17–2026-08-18 · n=1,411 · Chris Pappas (D) 49%, Scott Brown (R) 37% · release
Republican primary · Saint Anselm College · 2026-08-17–2026-08-18 · n=678 · John E. Sununu (R) 54%, Scott Brown (R) 24% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Saint Anselm College · 2026-06-24–2026-06-25 · n=1,614 · Chris Pappas (D) 48%, Scott Brown (R) 36% · release
Democratic primary · Saint Anselm College · 2026-06-24–2026-06-25 · n=810 · Chris Pappas (D) 62%, Karishma Manzur (D) 20% · release
Republican primary · Saint Anselm College · 2026-06-24–2026-06-25 · n=739 · John E. Sununu (R) 59%, Scott Brown (R) 21% · release
Democratic primary · University of New Hampshire · 2026-06-18–2026-06-23 · n=997 · Chris Pappas (D) 53%, Karishma Manzur (D) 29% · release
Hypothetical matchup · University of New Hampshire · 2026-06-18–2026-06-23 · n=2,232 · Chris Pappas (D) 52%, Scott Brown (R) 38% · release
Republican primary · University of New Hampshire · 2026-06-18–2026-06-23 · n=978 · John E. Sununu (R) 59%, Scott Brown (R) 20% · release
Republican primary · NHJournal/Praecones Analytica · 2026-04-22–2026-05-13 · n=350 · John E. Sununu (R) 73%, Scott Brown (R) 27% · release
Republican primary · University of New Hampshire · 2026-04-17–2026-04-21 · n=562 · John E. Sununu (R) 56%, Scott Brown (R) 19% · release
Hypothetical matchup · University of New Hampshire · 2026-04-17–2026-04-21 · n=1,295 · Chris Pappas (D) 52%, Scott Brown (R) 38% · release
Democratic primary · University of New Hampshire · 2026-04-17–2026-04-21 · n=481 · Chris Pappas (D) 61%, Karishma Manzur (D) 18%, Jared Sullivan (D) 1% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Emerson College · 2026-03-21–2026-03-23 · n=1,000 · Chris Pappas (D) 48%, Scott Brown (R) 39% · release
Republican primary · Emerson College · 2026-03-21–2026-03-23 · n=524 · John E. Sununu (R) 48%, Scott Brown (R) 19% · release
Democratic primary · Saint Anselm College · 2026-03-16–2026-03-18 · n=691 · Chris Pappas (D) 71%, Karishma Manzur (D) 9%, Jared Sullivan (D) 3% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Saint Anselm College · 2026-03-16–2026-03-18 · n=1,491 · Chris Pappas (D) 47%, Scott Brown (R) 38% · release
Republican primary · Saint Anselm College · 2026-03-16–2026-03-18 · n=673 · John E. Sununu (R) 49%, Scott Brown (R) 28% · release
Hypothetical matchup · University of New Hampshire · 2026-01-15–2026-01-19 · n=2,053 · Chris Pappas (D) 52%, Scott Brown (R) 42% · release
Democratic primary · University of New Hampshire · 2026-01-15–2026-01-19 · n=893 · Chris Pappas (D) 65%, Karishma Manzur (D) 11%, Jared Sullivan (D) 2% · release
Republican primary · University of New Hampshire · 2026-01-15–2026-01-19 · n=967 · John E. Sununu (R) 48%, Scott Brown (R) 25% · release
Hypothetical matchup · NHJournal/Praecones Analytica · 2025-12-26–2025-12-28 · n=603 · Chris Pappas (D) 46%, Scott Brown (R) 28% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Guidant Polling and Strategy (partisan) · 2025-12-09–2025-12-11 · n=600 · Chris Pappas (D) 49%, Scott Brown (R) 38% · release
Republican primary · Guidant Polling and Strategy (partisan) · 2025-12-09–2025-12-11 · n=353 · John E. Sununu (R) 49%, Scott Brown (R) 30% · release
Democratic primary · Saint Anselm College · 2025-11-18–2025-11-19 · n=1,015 · Chris Pappas (D) 64%, Karishma Manzur (D) 8%, Jared Sullivan (D) 2% · release
Republican primary · Saint Anselm College · 2025-11-18–2025-11-19 · n=1,000 · John E. Sununu (R) 39%, Scott Brown (R) 30% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Saint Anselm College · 2025-11-18–2025-11-19 · n=2,212 · Chris Pappas (D) 44%, Scott Brown (R) 36% · release
Republican primary · University of New Hampshire · 2025-11-13–2025-11-17 · n=593 · John E. Sununu (R) 40%, Scott Brown (R) 27% · release
Democratic primary · University of New Hampshire · 2025-11-13–2025-11-17 · n=521 · Chris Pappas (D) 57%, Karishma Manzur (D) 8%, Jared Sullivan (D) 5% · release
Hypothetical matchup · co/efficient (partisan) · 2025-10-09–2025-10-13 · n=1,034 · Chris Pappas (D) 49%, Scott Brown (R) 39% · release
Hypothetical matchup · co/efficient (partisan) · 2025-10-09–2025-10-13 · n=1,034 · Generic Democrat 47%, Generic Republican 44% · release
Republican primary · University of New Hampshire · 2025-09-17–2025-09-23 · n=555 · John E. Sununu (R) 42%, Scott Brown (R) 19%, Dan Innis (R) 7% · release
Democratic primary · University of New Hampshire · 2025-09-17–2025-09-23 · n=508 · Chris Pappas (D) 65%, Karishma Manzur (D) 14% · release
Hypothetical matchup · University of New Hampshire · 2025-09-17–2025-09-23 · n=1,235 · Chris Pappas (D) 52%, Scott Brown (R) 37% · release
Hypothetical matchup · co/efficient (partisan) · 2025-09-10–2025-09-12 · n=904 · Chris Pappas (D) 49%, Dan Innis (R) 37% · release
Republican primary · Saint Anselm College · 2025-08-26–2025-08-27 · n=791 · Scott Brown (R) 48%, Dan Innis (R) 13% · release

Signals (experimental)

Attention 60 Vector D · Held

Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)

Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly

pulse-1.0.0

60OUT OF 100Moderate attention

Attention percentile86th

7-day momentum24 / 100

Source breadth50% of tracked

Vugol Me Vector (experimental)

Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: medium

vector-1.1.0

Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean

AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored

Completeness3 of 7 inputs (national, pres, money) · missing: prior, incumbent, pulse, poll

Evidenceno verified poll · fundamentals only

Freshnessoldest input 2026-09-26 (4 days ago)

Vector component signals · estimated margin D +11.3Presidential lean of the seat (2024 D +2.8, national swing D +10.5)D +13.3Fundraising velocity (FEC)D +5.3National environment: our generic-ballot average is D +7.9 (27 pollsters, as of 2026-09-29), against the 2024 national House vote of R +2.6. The seat's last result and presidential lean move by that swing; polls, incumbency and money do not. How.

Daily precision telemetry

Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans

Sources

Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 0d8e3745bddb · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).

Band: D · Held (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.