Pappas +12
- Chris Pappas Democratic: 54%
- John E Sununu Republican: 42%
Other 2% · Undecided 2%
NH2026
U.S. Senate · New Hampshire · 2026
General election · 2 on the November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)
Result
CalledChris Pappas (D) won this race with 55.9% of the vote, 13.7 points ahead.
- Chris PappasDemocraticWinner55.9%355,720 votes
- John E. SununuRepublican42.2%268,340 votes
- Edmond J. LaPlante Jr.Constitution Party (United States)1.9%12,062 votes
- Margin
- 87,380 votes (13.7 points)
- Called
- Called by Wikipedia editors, Nov 3, 8:25 PM ET (revision)
- Last updated
- Nov 14, 6:05 AM ET
- Source
- Wikipedia · official results page
Called it: hit Our locked call before polls closed was D; the winner is D. See every locked call
Unofficial until the state certifies the result.
Before the election
Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.
Race poll averageU.S. Senate · New Hampshire
Chris Pappas
55%
John E Sununu
45%
Verified poll average · 22 polls · newest poll ended 2026-10-31
Verified polls Pappas leads Sununu by 9.5 points in our average of verified polls.
22 verified polls averaged, newest ended 2026-10-31. Page updated 2026-11-14. Sources · What is validated
ExperimentalNews attention 60/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 6 days ago. How it works
On the November ballot (2)
From reported primary results, checked 2026-11-14. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.
Ran in the primary (2)
Lost a primary or runoff for this seat, not on the November ballot.
Other filers (2)
Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.
Ballot source: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire&oldid=1385584274
Pappas +9.5
- Chris Pappas Democratic: 54.7%
- John E Sununu Republican: 45.3%
Latest verified field polling
Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.
Cite / verify
Cite thishttps://vugol.me/races/US-NH
Sourcehttps://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/1011/
Retrieved2026-11-14
Polling average Updates as polls arrive
54.7% Chris Pappas45.3% John E Sununu
Chris Pappas (D)John E. Sununu (R)● verified poll · ○ quarantined poll · ◎ live average
Vugol Tensor
How far this poll average can miss · a range, not a prediction
Centre D+9.5. Four times in five the result lands between D+16.2 and D+2.8; nine in ten between D+18.1 and D+0.9. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: 96%.
Same inputs as the Vugol Tensor page: the verified polling average above (22 verified polls), plus how far polls have missed since 1998. In the backtest the plain poll average picked the wrong winner in about 11% of polled, mostly competitive races (11.2%, 946 races, 1998 to 2024), and polls miss together. Not a forecast guarantee. How Tensor works →
Campaign money (FEC)
Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Pappas | $23,703,648 | $22,126,867 | $1,984,366 | 2026-10-14 |
| Dan Innis | $48,503 | $48,503 | $0 | 2026-01-25 |
| Jared Sullivan | $100,112 | $100,212 | $0 | 2026-06-30 |
| John E Sununu | $5,681,528 | $3,936,991 | $1,711,396 | 2026-10-14 |
| Karishma Manzur | $558,788 | $539,759 | $19,030 | 2026-09-30 |
| Scott P. Brown | $2,255,700 | $1,899,202 | $356,497 | 2026-09-30 |
Ad spending (FEC)
What each campaign reported paying for ads, and what outside groups (super PACs, PACs and parties) reported spending for and against each candidate. Federal Election Commission filings, public domain.
| Candidate | Campaign's own ads | Outside groups for | Outside groups against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Pappas | $4.9M | $2.7M | $32.5M |
| John E Sununu | $121K | $10.9M | $22.1M |
| Scott P. Brown | $221K | ||
| Karishma Manzur | $12K | $32K | |
| Jared Sullivan | $35K | ||
| Dan Innis | $21K |
Biggest outside spenders
- Chris Pappas. For: WinSenate $804K, CENTER FORWARD COMMITTEE $800K, AB PAC $543K. Against: SLF PAC $12.4M, NO GOING BACK PAC INC. $11.5M, Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc. (AFP Action) DBA CVA Action and DBA LIBRE Action $6.2M
- John E Sununu. For: Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc. (AFP Action) DBA CVA Action and DBA LIBRE Action $6.5M, NO GOING BACK PAC INC. $2.7M, Protect Freedom Political Action Committee $947K. Against: WinSenate $18.1M, American Center PAC $2M, LCV Victory Fund $1.4M
- Karishma Manzur. Against: THE CONSERVATIVE CAUCUS DBA AMERICANS FOR CONSTITUTIONAL LIBERTY $32K
Outside groups: 24- and 48-hour independent expenditure reports for the 2026 primary and general, through 2026-11-01, each expenditure counted once after amendments; "ads" is TV, radio, digital and other media, and the rest is mail, phones, canvassing and similar. Campaign's own ads: TV, radio, digital, other media and ad production in the campaign committee's itemized payments, as the campaign described them, from the reports the FEC has processed (latest through 2026-08-19); newer reports appear as the FEC processes them. These are amounts committees reported paying, not airtime tracked by ad-monitoring firms, so very recent buys and future reservations may not show yet. Parser fec-ad-spend-1.0.0.
Results
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state’s official results.
general election
| Chris Pappas won | 355,720 | 55.9% |
| John E. Sununu | 268,340 | 42.2% |
| Edmond J. LaPlante Jr. | 12,062 | 1.9% |
Democratic primary
| Chris Pappas won | 100,088 | 65.0% |
| Karishma Manzur | 50,321 | 32.7% |
| David Jarvis | 1,212 | 0.8% |
| John Vail | 956 | 0.6% |
| Maxwell L. Saal | 932 | 0.6% |
Republican primary
| John E. Sununu won | 75,839 | 68.4% |
| Scott Brown | 29,517 | 26.6% |
| Sky Danley | 1,187 | 1.1% |
| Sabrina Ann Smith | 955 | 0.9% |
| Andy Martin | 789 | 0.7% |
| Mary Maxwell | 774 | 0.7% |
| Tom Alciere | 602 | 0.5% |
| Richard A. McMenamon II | 403 | 0.4% |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-11-14 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-09-08, Primary election: U.S. Senate
- 2026-11-03, General election: U.S. Senate
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (40)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to that article revision and, where we know it, to the pollster's own site.
- Democratic primary · GQR (partisan) · 2026-08-19–2026-08-25 · n=422 · Chris Pappas (D) 71%,Karishma Manzur (D) 15% · release
- Democratic primary · University of New Hampshire · 2026-08-20–2026-08-24 · n=893 · Chris Pappas (D) 47%,Karishma Manzur (D) 34% · pollster's site · release
- Republican primary · University of New Hampshire · 2026-08-20–2026-08-24 · n=856 · John E. Sununu (R) 60%,Scott Brown (R) 20% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · University of New Hampshire · 2026-08-20–2026-08-24 · n=1,878 · Chris Pappas (D) 45%,Scott Brown (R) 40% · pollster's site · release
- Democratic primary · Saint Anselm College · 2026-08-17–2026-08-18 · n=733 · Chris Pappas (D) 59%,Karishma Manzur (D) 28% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Saint Anselm College · 2026-08-17–2026-08-18 · n=1,411 · Chris Pappas (D) 49%,Scott Brown (R) 37% · release
- Republican primary · Saint Anselm College · 2026-08-17–2026-08-18 · n=678 · John E. Sununu (R) 54%,Scott Brown (R) 24% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Saint Anselm College · 2026-06-24–2026-06-25 · n=1,614 · Chris Pappas (D) 48%,Scott Brown (R) 36% · release
- Democratic primary · Saint Anselm College · 2026-06-24–2026-06-25 · n=810 · Chris Pappas (D) 62%,Karishma Manzur (D) 20% · release
- Republican primary · Saint Anselm College · 2026-06-24–2026-06-25 · n=739 · John E. Sununu (R) 59%,Scott Brown (R) 21% · release
- Democratic primary · University of New Hampshire · 2026-06-18–2026-06-23 · n=997 · Chris Pappas (D) 53%,Karishma Manzur (D) 29% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · University of New Hampshire · 2026-06-18–2026-06-23 · n=2,232 · Chris Pappas (D) 52%,Scott Brown (R) 38% · pollster's site · release
- Republican primary · University of New Hampshire · 2026-06-18–2026-06-23 · n=978 · John E. Sununu (R) 59%,Scott Brown (R) 20% · pollster's site · release
- Republican primary · NHJournal/Praecones Analytica · 2026-04-22–2026-05-13 · n=350 · John E. Sununu (R) 73%,Scott Brown (R) 27% · release
- Republican primary · University of New Hampshire · 2026-04-17–2026-04-21 · n=562 · John E. Sununu (R) 56%,Scott Brown (R) 19% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · University of New Hampshire · 2026-04-17–2026-04-21 · n=1,295 · Chris Pappas (D) 52%,Scott Brown (R) 38% · pollster's site · release
- Democratic primary · University of New Hampshire · 2026-04-17–2026-04-21 · n=481 · Chris Pappas (D) 61%,Karishma Manzur (D) 18%,Jared Sullivan (D) 1% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Emerson College · 2026-03-21–2026-03-23 · n=1,000 · Chris Pappas (D) 48%,Scott Brown (R) 39% · pollster's site · release
- Republican primary · Emerson College · 2026-03-21–2026-03-23 · n=524 · John E. Sununu (R) 48%,Scott Brown (R) 19% · pollster's site · release
- Democratic primary · Saint Anselm College · 2026-03-16–2026-03-18 · n=691 · Chris Pappas (D) 71%,Karishma Manzur (D) 9%,Jared Sullivan (D) 3% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Saint Anselm College · 2026-03-16–2026-03-18 · n=1,491 · Chris Pappas (D) 47%,Scott Brown (R) 38% · release
- Republican primary · Saint Anselm College · 2026-03-16–2026-03-18 · n=673 · John E. Sununu (R) 49%,Scott Brown (R) 28% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · University of New Hampshire · 2026-01-15–2026-01-19 · n=2,053 · Chris Pappas (D) 52%,Scott Brown (R) 42% · pollster's site · release
- Democratic primary · University of New Hampshire · 2026-01-15–2026-01-19 · n=893 · Chris Pappas (D) 65%,Karishma Manzur (D) 11%,Jared Sullivan (D) 2% · pollster's site · release
- Republican primary · University of New Hampshire · 2026-01-15–2026-01-19 · n=967 · John E. Sununu (R) 48%,Scott Brown (R) 25% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · NHJournal/Praecones Analytica · 2025-12-26–2025-12-28 · n=603 · Chris Pappas (D) 46%,Scott Brown (R) 28% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Guidant Polling and Strategy (partisan) · 2025-12-09–2025-12-11 · n=600 · Chris Pappas (D) 49%,Scott Brown (R) 38% · release
- Republican primary · Guidant Polling and Strategy (partisan) · 2025-12-09–2025-12-11 · n=353 · John E. Sununu (R) 49%,Scott Brown (R) 30% · release
- Democratic primary · Saint Anselm College · 2025-11-18–2025-11-19 · n=1,015 · Chris Pappas (D) 64%,Karishma Manzur (D) 8%,Jared Sullivan (D) 2% · release
- Republican primary · Saint Anselm College · 2025-11-18–2025-11-19 · n=1,000 · John E. Sununu (R) 39%,Scott Brown (R) 30% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Saint Anselm College · 2025-11-18–2025-11-19 · n=2,212 · Chris Pappas (D) 44%,Scott Brown (R) 36% · release
- Republican primary · University of New Hampshire · 2025-11-13–2025-11-17 · n=593 · John E. Sununu (R) 40%,Scott Brown (R) 27% · pollster's site · release
- Democratic primary · University of New Hampshire · 2025-11-13–2025-11-17 · n=521 · Chris Pappas (D) 57%,Karishma Manzur (D) 8%,Jared Sullivan (D) 5% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · co/efficient (partisan) · 2025-10-09–2025-10-13 · n=1,034 · Chris Pappas (D) 49%,Scott Brown (R) 39% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · co/efficient (partisan) · 2025-10-09–2025-10-13 · n=1,034 · Generic Democrat 47%,Generic Republican 44% · pollster's site · release
- Republican primary · University of New Hampshire · 2025-09-17–2025-09-23 · n=555 · John E. Sununu (R) 42%,Scott Brown (R) 19%,Dan Innis (R) 7% · pollster's site · release
- Democratic primary · University of New Hampshire · 2025-09-17–2025-09-23 · n=508 · Chris Pappas (D) 65%,Karishma Manzur (D) 14% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · University of New Hampshire · 2025-09-17–2025-09-23 · n=1,235 · Chris Pappas (D) 52%,Scott Brown (R) 37% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · co/efficient (partisan) · 2025-09-10–2025-09-12 · n=904 · Chris Pappas (D) 49%,Dan Innis (R) 37% · pollster's site · release
- Republican primary · Saint Anselm College · 2025-08-26–2025-08-27 · n=791 · Scott Brown (R) 48%,Dan Innis (R) 13% · release
In the news
- Newly elected Senate Democrats in the spotlight: From the Politics Desk
- The biggest winners, losers and surprises from the 2026 midterms
- ‘I’ll be reelected as majority leader,’ Schumer says
- Dreams, desks and selfies: Newly elected members of Congress learn their way around
- Establishment candidates John E. Sununu and Chris Pappas pitch change in New Hampshire Senate race
- Election Day arrives: Here’s the best of our midterms coverage
- Full transcript of "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan," Nov. 8, 2026
- An hour-by-hour guide to watching the 2026 midterms, and when we’ll know who controls Congress
- For under-50 Senate hopefuls, age isn’t just a number
- Representative Chris Pappas Will Become the Senate’s First Openly Gay Male Senator
Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news
LabVugol Vector & Vugol Attention
Vugol Attention 60 Vugol Vector D · Tilting
Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
60OUT OF 100Moderate attention
Vugol Attention percentile98th
7-day momentum1 / 100
Source breadth50% of tracked
Candidate attention share · trailing 7 days81% D · 19% R
Chris Pappas (D) 64% · volume 50 / 7dDan Innis (R) 19% · volume 15 / 7d
Vugol Vector
Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: medium
Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean
AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored
Completeness4 of 7 inputs (national, pres, money, pulse) · missing: prior, incumbent, poll
Evidenceno audit release · fundamentals only
Freshnessoldest input 2026-11-08 (6 days ago)
The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.
Desk data: daily telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans
Sources
- Roster, official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Vugol Attention inputs, Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results, individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models attention-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 a5cbe071d790 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Vugol Vector band: D · Tilting. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.
The four Vugol signals, side by side
They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.
- Vugol Vector
- Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
- Vugol Tensor
- How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
- Vugol Attention
- How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
- Vugol Pulse
- Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.