200 possible Novembers, each dot one simulated outcome. Not a prediction.
69
OUT OF 100 · DEMOCRATS
31
OUT OF 100 · REPUBLICANS
51 seats = Democratic control
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
Democratic-side seats after November (independents who caucus with Democrats counted)
Source: Vugol Tensor, 20,000 simulations from 16 verified-poll averages and race ratings for the 35 seats up. Median 52 Democratic-side seats (80% range 48–55); 51 needed. Read Oct 20, 9:11 PM ET. vugol.me/tensor
