200 possible Novembers, each dot one simulated outcome. Not a prediction.
96
OUT OF 100 · DEMOCRATS
4
OUT OF 100 · REPUBLICANS
218 seats = Democratic control
203
208
213
218
223
228
233
238
243
248
253
258
263
268
273
278
Democratic-side seats after November, in groups of 5 (column labels show the lowest)
Source: Vugol Tensor, 20,000 simulations from 13 verified-poll averages and race ratings for the 435 seats up. Median 240 Democratic-side seats (80% range 223–258); 218 needed. Read Oct 20, 9:13 PM ET. vugol.me/tensor
